I agree that we should be cautious about stringing players up just to satisfy our curiosity. Remember that the mafia are going to be killing one of us every night. Now, it’s likely they’ll try to avoid killing players whose deaths will unlock information cascades. But they can’t help but give us more information every night.
That said, I’m really curious about what’s inside dnooman’s and Lightning’s crunchy candy shells. Too bad we can’t find out the truth without them ending up, you know, dead.
I have no more reason to suspect Lightning this round than I did last round. And overanalysis of the first day and night is almost certain to be misguided, since the mafiosi are almost certainly trying for some misdirection. In other words, the obvious suspects are the least obvious suspects…those who haven’t done much of anything.
I say lynch the slackers, lynch 'em! …but seriously, I am kind of miffed at the pattern that keeps showing up in this games: you get lots of townies and a few scum who all post frequently, make accusations, defend themselves, and get lynched… while at least some of the mob simply don’t participate, and insulate themselves from suspicion until the endgame.
This is very much a problem for me. If I don’t post much, I’m seen as a lurker and probably scum. If I post more but don’t say much, it’s “fluff” and I’m probably scum. If I just don’t have any suspicions or insight to offer…I’m seen as scum. So it’s a no-win situation for me no matter what I do. I am trying to spot patterns and see what makes me suspicious, but I don’t want to raise suspicions on someone until I think I have something to go on, because I don’t like the idea of lynching an innocent townie.
Well I don’t have any good ideas either, so I like to basically talk my thoughts out in a post. Just looking back to the first day, I either got a few innocents ticked off at me or bumping into a scum-led lynch mob. Either way, it provoked a reaction which gives us that much more information. As townies information is the only thing we have, so it’s really essential to speak out.
None of us really knows much for sure - except the scum. It’s important to keep hearing everyone’s thoughts. I know, I’m struggling too and we’re all grasping at straws. Just give your thoughts, your suspicions… that’s what the game’s about.
This is called an OMGUS vote (Oh my god you suck) it means voting for someone who voted for you for that very reason. Not good strategy.
So you think that I’m scum, voted for you (you say townie), then when you weren’t gonna swing I voted for another innocent townie in order to secure a town lynch? Does that really sound like good strategy for a scum? If you turn up town that would sure make me look dirty wouldn’t it? Would I want that sort of negative attention if I were in the minority?
I’m getting a lot of suspicion thrown my way due to my votes, I’m perfectly fine with that. It’s all about getting the scum to slip up and making determinations from the record after a few roles are known.
My reasoning for switching has been stated and I’m not going to pretend that there was any other reason for my switch because lying is bad for the town.
DiggitCamara really seems to be going after me, we’ll see how that turns out won’t we?
I don’t know what to think about that – on one end of the spectrum is CaerieD, who is pinging town. On the other end are three I’m just not sure about.
Using Lemur866’s logic from post #669 exonerates dnooman and CaerieD only if both Lightnin’ and Omi no Kami are also town. I can’t go that far out on a limb and chalk all four up as townies at this point.
Nope. Lemur866’s logic makes both Lightnin’ and dnooman scum:
**dnooman **(clever scum) sees Lightnin’ in trouble.
He waits for the moment where, under “cover” of fluiddruid’s (citizen?) post he switches votes, swinging the vote count to help Lightnin’ survive
Number 2 didn’t go that well. After all, she FOS-ed Lightnin’ and only said he *might * have some power role and dnooman translated that into “he’s probably mason”.
Why wouldn’t someone about to be lynched refrain from claiming? Your guess is as good as mine.
I’m now back at the Portland airport, attempting resurrection-by-whiskey after 2 days of death-by-powerpoint. My apologies if my posting volume has been sparce, but I should be all clear for the duration of the game.
I would not want to be Projammer right now. The legacy left by both of our dearly departed townies does not bode well for him.
At this point, I trust in the judgment of the dead more than the judgement of the living. I might be inclined to be looking at dnooman right now if it weren’t for the vague suspicions that I have for the people who are in turn suspicious of him.
"Number 2 didn’t go that well. After all, she FOS-ed Lightnin’ and only said he might have some power role and dnooman translated that into “he’s probably mason”. "
I wanted to write
"Number 2 didn’t go that well. After all, fluiddruid FOS-ed Lightnin’ and only said he might have some power role and **dnooman ** translated that into “he’s probably mason”. "
and
“Why wouldn’t someone about to be lynched refrain from claiming? Your guess is as good as mine.”
when I meant
“Why would someone with a power role who’s about to be lynched refrain from claiming? Your guess is as good as mine.”
OK, you’re right, that scenario theoretically works. But that leaves me wondering why dnooman would go to all that trouble jeopardizing a fellow mafioso on day one when he’s just going to wagon an innocent townie in the end. Before they even had a chance to meet up and rig things, no less. I’d bank on one or the other being Mafia, but probably not both.
It’s possible one or the other is Mafia, but I have to agree that the chances seem pretty dim for them to both be Mafia. There aren’t going to be any elaborate, Machiavellian conspiracies from the scum on the first day when they haven’t had a night to plot beforehand. They’re only allowed to communicate at night, so at best you’ll see somebody slip up on the first day.
Nope, I’m not voting for you strictly because you voted for me, and there’s no OMGUS factor to it. I’m voting for you because you, and the two others I posted, CaerieD and Hal Briston, were the only three that jumped from one bandwagon to another. You, in particular, jumped from me (the easy lynch) and then to percypercy. Now that percypercy has been lynched out of the picture, you jumped back to the easy lynch (me).
I’m not doing it because you voted against me. I’m doing it because your voting pattern looks scummy.
Sure, it’s a valid strategy. Never initiate votes, but reinforce votes against Townsfolk- that way you don’t look too aggressive. If your first choice looks like it’s not going to happen, go for a backup.
Well, since I know that I’m Town, and so was percypercy, I’d say that yes- it does make you look dirty, at least to me. From my point of view, you haven’t voted for anyone but Town. I realize that I can’t directly convince anyone else of that, of course, but I’m not trying to use that to convince anyone else.
Ultimately speaking, voting patterns are the only information we have to draw from- so, yeah, you’re getting a lot of suspicion thrown your way due to your votes.
Heh…that would be the way I jumped from the NAF bandwagon (“bandwagon” in this case, being defined as “having one vote”) to the DarkSideCookies bandwagon (“bandwagon” in this case, being defined as “having zero votes”)?
So you think myself and Lightnin’ are both scum, I vote for him in order to be clever by voting for a fellow Mafia, then decide to join a townie lynch that didn’t even need my vote to kill percy? Did you notice that I’m voting for him again? Would I be doing that if I were scum?
Lightnin’ got real quiet right before the day was over, no claim. I’m inclined to think then that he’s definitely not a mason now, and that he’s scum.
On preview, if Lightnin’ gets lynched and turns out to be town, then yes I will have only voted for townies. I don’t have any insider information to prevent me from doing such a thing.
The question I’ve been asking myself since percypercy turned out to be town is why her bandwagon took off when Projammer’s stalled so early. If we believe the Mafia had a hand in solidifying the percypercy bandwagon (which is an assumption I think is correct) then why didn’t they choose the Projammer bandwagon that was already started?
I see a few possibilities:
a) Projammer is scum, and they were ready to jump on the most likely bandwagon so that he wouldn’t be lynched.
b) Projammer is town, but they were scared that it would lead back to them if they bandwagoned him.
c) Projammer is town, and they just didn’t think his bandwagon was as likely as percypercy’s to go the distance.
Starting with option c first, I don’t think this is likely. At the crucial time when votes were falling off of Lightnin’Projammer had three votes, and was actually a better candidate for the bandwagon. Projammer’s bandwagon had me, NAF1138, and percypercy on it. NAF1138 was controversial, but had also garnered a little trust. They would have also had my and NAF1138’s simul-post analysis of our suspicion for Projammer to fall back on as a defense for why they voted for him. They could also be pretty sure that percypercy, already a little suspected, would take much of the heat. If I were scum and had to choose a townie to bandwagon, and Projammer was town, I would have chosen him.
For option b, I think many of the same arguments as option c apply. The only addition is that a few people had openly voiced suspicion of the Projammer bandwagon. Notably post 449 where Idle Thoughts says this:
So there were a few people who thought the Projammer bandwagon was suspicious and needed to be stopped. We aren’t sure if some of them might be scum, though, trying to halt it before it started. Assuming they were all town for a moment, it might have given the Mafia players pause. I don’t know.
I do keep having to remember that the Mafia wasn’t able to talk and give each other advice before day 1, so each of them was flying blind about what the others were going to do. If Projammer is scum I find it hard to believe that when Lightnin’ was suddenly losing votes that at least one of them wouldn’t have picked the Projammer bandwagon to jump onto, if only to spread out the votes a little and hope to convince other townies to join them.
This is why I think option a, that Projammer is scum, is the most likely, and the Lightnin’ and percypercy bandwagons were just “anyone but Projammer” bandwagons of opportunity.
To refresh everyone’s memory of my original suspicion of Projammer I outlined it in post 443. NAF1138’s voicing of the same suspicions is the next post.
The way yesterday ended has only strengthened my suspicion of Projammer.
And your grabbing at a flimsy straw as an excuse to vote for me earns you an FOS ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies. If this day ends badly and I am lynched, this will come back to bite you.
Percy getting killed was just an unfortunate circumstance of her posting. Or lack thereof. And NAF was the only reasonable target the first night considerering his skill and experience. That both of them had voted for me is a two birds with one stone win for the mafia. They only have to make slight nudges to convince the town to take out another one of their own.
nesta’s last post made a whole lot of sense to me. Taking that into account, plus the people that have voted for both Lightnin’ and Projammer I think I’m more comfortable being in the company of those voting for Projammer.
unvote Lightnin’ I’ll wait to see if I feel like making an official vote for Projammer after hearing what he has to say in his defense.