Updated player list:
Alive:
Dead:
Players from the reserve list posted previously will be subbed in as needed.
Sorry, this is the first opportunity to post since I got back in town, fortunately, it looks like I mostly missed the night. That said, I have a few items to address.
It sucks that we lost our detective with only one investigation (yet again!). That said, before we get too hasty, we do have to come to a concensus as to what was Kyrie’s breadcrumb. Running on the assumption that about 25% of the population is scum (give or take), that means that if she investigated at random, there’s a 75% chance that she got a townie, which would incline one to believe (purely theoretically) that it was most likely either dnooman or projammer (why not include both together, knowing that one would almost certainly get lynched?); although I would like to believe the un-FOS of me was the breadcrumb, I don’t quite see that as likely. However,** fluiddruid ** had drawn a fairly large amount of suspicion on the first day, and I had a dichotomy in my mental notes that it was likely that Kyrie and fluiddruid ** were from opposite factions. That said, intuitively speaking, fluiddruid ** makes the most likely candidate, closely followed by projammer and Lightnin’.
Based just on that (ignoring projammer’s role claim for a moment), that makes, in my mind, **projammer ** the most likely investigatee, and fluiddruid a very close second.
Now comes the **projammer ** role claim variable. I’m inclined to believe it is bogus. Let’s look at the possibilities.
projammer is a pro-town power role and claimed do-gooder so he wouldn’t have to role claim something more serious. This option is a gambit, hoping the town would believe you enough not to lynch, and the mafia believe you enough not to try to kill you (why kill a lowly do-gooder?). However, he doesn’t strike me as the doctor or nightwatchman, and if he were a mason, that would have been a much better claim, thus I’m inclined to believe this is a somewhat low possibility.
**projammer ** is a plain-vanilla townie. This is a bad option and is distinctly anti-town, because he is lying to protect his own neck, and if he’s still alive when a real do-gooder gets discovered, it will cast doubt on both of them. Considering that this is fairly well known as a bad strategy, I’m inclined to believe this is a very low possibility.
projammer is telling the truth. This, IMO, is a very bad play. The ONLY advantage of the do-gooder role is in it not being known. That is, the do-gooder should be trying really hard to get the mafia to really want to recruit him, so they waste their recruit which is ALMOST like having an extra lynch and no night kill. Instead, if he’s telling the truth, beside the fact that he looks scummy and is therefore a bad recruitment candidate or night target because he’s a likely lynchee; if he ever did become tempting as a recruitment, it’s never going to happen now, and thus his power role is completely moot. Thus, if he ever does become well trusted, he’ll simply be killed and not recruited. However, I can understand the desire to stay alive and attempt to cast suspicion on someone one believes to be scum instead of letting someone you know to be town (yourself) die. Thus, I’m inclined to believe this is fairly likely.
projammer is scum. This is definitely the best role claim to make, because it still has the role claim effect of making people think a lot harder about goign through with it, and it is completely unprovable and useless once it’s been outted. He looked highly suspicious, and this role claim is enough to get enough steam off of his wagon to ultimately result in a townie lynch. Because of his over all scumminess and that this is the best role claim to make, I’m inclined to believe this is the most likely.
Of course, all of that said, add it all up and it looks most likely that projammer is scum; however, add in the percentage-wise and intuitive-wise likeliness that projammer was the breadcrumb and it pretty much knocks that back down to a big fat question mark.
After all of that, because the best breadcrumb candidate is likely to be pro-town, and the next best is almost as likely and was crumbed as scum, I think it’s in our best interest for me to vote **fluiddruid ** for now, especially because of her suspiciousness on day one (even though she didn’t look suspicious at all yesterday). However, if **fluiddruid ** comes up scum, that pretty much means she was the breadcrumb, making Kyrie’s trust of projammer moot, and putting him highest on my FOS list.
Thus, lynch fluiddruid and HEAVY FOS on projammer. I could potentially see myself voting for projammer if someone can make a convincing enough case that neither projammer nor fluiddruid was Kyrie’s crumb.
I was curious as to why Kyrie was lynched when Projammer had role-claimed. It crossed my mind that the scum know we are still suspicious of him, so they didn’t get him in order to get us to do their work for them - and take the head off of fluiddruid.
Since I can’t edit, that would be “take the heat off of” :smack:
I can see the case made for fluiddruid being the breadcrumb. He’s more likely to have been investigated. Is there any reason why Kyrie might have suspected Blaster Master? If not, then maybe that was a fluke. It looked very suspicious and odd to me, though, as if Kyrie were trying to say something affirming about Blaster but didn’t quite know how to do so. Two of the players on my scum list were some of the first to say that getting the Detective was a “lucky break,” right after I posted that the “anti-FOS” may have been the tip-off.
So here’s my scum list, which looks a lot like some others I’ve seen floating around:
**
Lightnin’
Projammer
CaerieD
Cometothedarksidewehavecookies**
I was pretty surprised to see that **dnooman **was on to most if not all of these as “probably scum,” but that his “definitely scum” list had three players I’ve yet to suspect. **Tirial seems pro-town. ** Idle Thoughts, despite being convinced that I’m Mafia ;), doesn’t feel scummy to me. I have no feelings either way on DiggitCamara.
I’m going to hold off on voting for a while. I’m not as convinced about fluiddruid (yet) as I am about the first two on my list. I’d happily lynch either.
Lastly, what do we think about the extremely long night? Did the Mafia have a hard time choosing and get right down to the wire? Or did the Detective/Doctor/Night Watchman not turn in their information? The night ends before the deadline if everyone turns in their info ahead of time, right? Gadarene?
Yup. And assuming I’m at my computer. 
In this case, the last night instructions were submitted approximately three hours before my post ending the night.
This is the type of reasoning that is really not helping Town. I’m suspicious for being enthusiastic, participating, and searching out scum in Day One, but I’m also suspicious for not being enthusiastic enough about searching out scum in Day Two, in your estimation. This strikes me as a double-edged sword; essentially, no matter what I do. it’s suspicious to you. This strikes me as suspiciously bad reasoning at best.
Unfortunately, I haven’t seen a whole lot of reasoning to criticize between you and Snakecatlady other than your interpretation of Kyrie Eleison’s comments. Which, I might add, I discussed at length why I disagreed with.
Well, let’s look at what you find suspicious about me in detail. You were suspicious of me on Day One because you found that I participated too much. Okay… so let’s look at people who are dead. NAF and dnooman were also high contributors. They are confirmed town. So what does this mean? You seem to be arguing that you are basing your suspicions of me on activities in Day One. So, who else are you suspicious of from Day One because of that same criteria? I don’t seem to be seeing that from you.
Yes, I am a bit alarmed at two votes. I’m a little alarmed because I feel we’re completely letting the Mafia run the game and I’m being pinpointed based on Kyrie Eleison and I having mutual distrust from the get-go, which was known to Mafia when they night killed him. We are letting ourselves use bad reasoning because we are alarmed in general that we lost the Detective and we are grasping at straws.
Your suspicion of me is indirect as well.
Please. CaerieD just posted an equivalent statement saying she needed to go back over the thread before commenting. I wanted to get my two cents in before we started a huge bandwagon, but I know, unfortunately, I don’t have a lot of other people that I’m suspicious of. I have few suspicions – unlike your characterization that I am trying desperately to scapegoat someone. Who would be most easily scapegoated? Projammer, who frankly I don’t feel (at the present time) is anything but a Do-Gooder as he claims.
Frankly, I’m equally concerned about your response, and Snakecatlady’s as well:
You have only a few posts more than I do (you’re 6th in post count among the living; I’m 8th). I didn’t participate as much in Day Two due to some real life considerations. But, I think if you put your own posts to scrutiny, you can’t claim that you have more substance. I’m sorry, but it’s the truth. Your posts are short and, prior to late in Day Two, I argue that they were not very substantial. I feel you’re participating more, and that’s good - but whether that’s because you’re just inexperienced and trying to join in more, or because you were criticized and trying to save your neck, I’m not sure.
In going back through posts, Kyrie Eleison actually seems to put a lot of suspicion on Omi no Kami on Day One - more than I remembered. He seems a very likely candidate for investigation, too. This makes me less likely to suspect you, Omi, since it only makes sense that if he did investigate you, he would have posted something about it on Day Two (even just a little). Still, it’s hard to know at this point. I wish we had more days of investigations to work with. Yet, you didn’t give a final vote last day… so I’m concerned.
So who to vote for if not me, and maybe not Projammer? Frankly, I think the answer to our suspicions lies in the votes.
Final Vote Count
5 – Projammer (ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta, Millit the Frail, Rachm Qoch, dnooman)
5 – dnooman (Lightnin’, DiggitCamara, Hal Briston, Idle Thoughts, fluiddruid)
2 – fluiddruid (SnakesCatLady, Kyrie Eleison)
2 – No Lynch (Projammer, CaerieD)
1 – CaerieD (Blaster Master)
1 – SnakesCatLady (Lemur866)
I am extremely concerned about the No Lynch votes here. This to me is the most compelling evidence about Projammer, but, I’m not sure. He was under lynching pressure. CaerieD though? I’m concerned. We shouldn’t be voting no lynch. “Throwing your vote away” should be considered a possible scum tell.
What if I’m right and Projammer was town? This means that Mafia would have known that both candidates were town, so they would have had a reason to hide their votes!
CaerieD (voted no lynch), Lemur866, Blaster Master, Projammer and SnakesCatLady - and Omi no Kami, you did not even vote (did I miss other non voters?) - I would like to hear a lot more from you guys. It seems likely that some of you (though of course not all) are Mafia if Projammer is town. If he’s not, of course, then of course we should look more at those who voted for dnooman (myself included).
So, for me, it comes down to - is Projammer town?
Bah. Four townies dead, including our Detective. I hope we can turn this around.
Based on what others have quoted from Kyrie, I’m inclined to believe that he investigated fluiddruid and she came back Mafia. I really hope that’s the case, because at least we won’t have lost our Detective for nothing.
I’m still highly suspicious of Projammer. His role-claim is unverifiable and if true rendered his role useless. I don’t buy it, though.
I’m holding off on voting until I get a chance to review the thread with Kyrie’s and dnooman’s confirmed status in mind, but if I had to vote right now it would be for fluiddruid, and then Projammer tomorrow.
I’m inclined to suspect Projammer, myself.
There’s more than one Do-gooder, correct? Two, right? Therefore his claim of being a Do-gooder is perfectly safe- since nobody knows who anyone else is, then nobody can say, “Uh, no you’re not- I am.”
It’s also a safe claim in that it’s a power role, albeit a relatively minor one. Townies would want to keep the Do-gooders alive on the offchance that the Scum will try to recruit them.
Also, there’s no real purpose in outing yourself as a Do-gooder. All it does is keep the Scum from trying to recruit you, as they know whether you’re Town or not. In other words, outing yourself as Do-gooder doesn’t help the town in any way- it only helps Scum.
I’m not going to vote to lynch Projammer right now, simply because my track record’s been so bad lately. I’m keepin’ my eye on him, though.
Lightnin’, I agree with you that Projammer is not clear of suspicion. My concern is that, if he is town, the scum didn’t off him because they know that will make us more suspicious of him - thereby taking our energy from looking at scum.
Does that make any sense? Or am I just over-rationalizing?
I’m not comfortable making any major accusations just yet, since I’d like to review the thread in closer detail to figure out what I think of the potential breadcrumbs, but I’m responding now since I see some people are thinking I came across scummy for voting no lynch last time around.
I thought I explained my reasons for doing so well enough before, but I’ll explain them again. dnooman had given me some doubt and the behavior of a few others made me think we had scum trying to orchestrate a day kill. I’m particularly suspicious of Rachm Qoch’s behavior at that point. Since I was going to be gone for the entire day due to RL obligations and I felt like some manipulation of the bandwagons was going on, I voted for no lynch. I was hoping others might follow suit. You’re honestly telling me that offing dnooman was preferable to not having a lynch on Day 2? Simple math here: One night kill of a townie versus a night kill and a day kill of townies. Since the whole tie seemed fishy to me, I didn’t want to vote for Projammer either. I was trying to remove myself from the whole sticky mess.
I came back in the evening, just before that Day was over, and saw nothing much had changed. No new information to allow me to decide who to vote for, so I stuck with my thrown away vote.
If somebody wants to level the FOS against me because I voted against lynching a townie, be my guest. Scum would have kept the vote to ensure that dnooman died, rather than leaving it to a coin toss, but clearly, not offing my fellow Citizens is a scum tell. :rolleyes:
OK, let’s consider that Kyrie fingers fluiddruid, and winds up dead. First, I can’t believe the scum knew Kyrie was the detective. Not enough to go on. But consider the scenario. The scum know Kyrie fingered fluiddruid. Kyrie ends up dead. Suspicion falls on fluiddruid. We lynch fluiddruid. Just like they wanted us to. Of course, they knew we’d know this…crap. I’m not going to defend fluiddruid too much, just point out that the scum are trying to confuse us. It’s a huge FOS on fluiddruid…but if we go with it and lynch her it means we’re doing what the scum expect. It might be worth lynching fluiddruid just to verify her status, but the strategy of lynching players who were fingered by murder victims has the obvious flaw that the scum can always find someone who fingered a townie and murder them and therefore point the finger at an innocent person.
I agree that Projammer’s “Do-Gooder” role claim stinks. I have to imagine it’s either true or he’s scum, the other alternatives don’t make any sense. But as Blaster Master lays out, it’s a worthless play if Projammer is town. But of course, Projammer knows he’s clean, so he’s gonna try to save his own neck, even if logically a “Do-Gooder” role claim is irrelevant. But this makes Projammer more likely to be scum. I don’t know if he’s over the 50% suspicion level for me yet, but he’s getting close. I couldn’t vote for him last time, but this time I wouldn’t mind.
And I want to drag Lightnin’ back into the spotlight. He was dnooman’s prime suspect. Now, dnooman didn’t have any more knowledge than the rest of us…but we now know his arguments were sincere. Lightning has dropped off the list of suspects, but the revelation of dnooman’s town status bumps him up a few more notches.
It just seems to me that the strategy of targeting the “most suspicious” people is failing, because the scum are making an effort not to act suspicious. So the least suspicious people need to get their turn in the spotlight. I’m not talking about people you’re inclined to trust, I’m talking about people you have absolutely no feeling about either way. These are the people we should take a look at.
Bingo. It looks like the scum took their time. Say that the Mafia didn’t know that they had the Detective. They just wanted to kill a townie. How would they go about choosing which one to kill, al else being equal? Why Kyrie Eleison? If I were Mafia, at this point in the game, I’d kill someone who had FOSed, or voted for, very obviously, the wrong person. I would know that the town would jump right on that person and lynch away. And look–that’s exactly what’s happening. There’s a bandwagon on fluiddruid just a few hours past dawn. The Mafia don’t even have to vote for her, the town’s going to do the dirty work.
Of course, they can change it up and do things the other way tomorrow night, so that we can’t keep using this reasoning to root them out. I fully expect that they are/were planning to go after someone who really does have it out for Mafia the next time.
I appreciate your defense, Lemur, but this isn’t good logic to me. We need to be lynching scum. I’d really like to know where Projammer falls out, just as I’m sure many people would like to know the same about me, and possibly Lightnin and a few other “usual suspects”. But, if you lynch me, lynch me because you truly think I’m scum.
Yet, surely you can see why this can be a scum tell. Like I said, if I’m right and Projammer is town, it makes the most sense that Mafia members would avoid voting - especially tiebreaking - as not to incriminate themselves. I’m not saying that’s necessarily the case for you personally, but a “no lynch” vote is definitely something to think about regardless of Projammer’s status, and particularly if he’s Town.
So you interpreted that coincidence as reinforcing your choices for your scum list? If that is the case, then that is extremely weak. If that isn’t the case, why even make this statement?
Look at how much how much discussion we’ve already had during this day about what could or could not be Kyrie’s breadcrumb. The scum night discussion would be similar, I would expect, with smaller numbers but also with the knowledge of who is and isn’t town. If they were trying to target the Detective, they would’ve done so with an analysis of all of the possible breadcrumb-candidate-posts left by all town players during day two. That, my friend is lucky.
Back to catching up on the thread…
That’s the thing. The mafia don’t want their fingers on a town lynch. And they KNOW who’s town. So when there’s a bandwagon to lynch a townie, they stay far away and let the town do the dirty work, and then all the townies who lynched a townie get FOS’d.
The only time this doesn’t apply is if a mafiosi is a leading candidate. Then it gets trickier, because they don’t want fingerprints defending a mafiosi, but they don’t want fingerprints lynching a townie either. For a slam dunk mafia lynch where there’s no chance to derail it, they’ll join in and turn on their buddy to make sure they get an anti-scum vote on their record. But what about where there are two candidates…like last time? We know dnooman was town, but we don’t know Projammer’s status. Was the dnooman lynch caused because mafia were trying to tip the lynch away from Projammer, or were both townies and the scum were happy either way?
I can see how a Mafiosa would want to avoid voting for townies in a situation like that. I can see how a Mafiosa wouldn’t want to give a tiebreaking vote. What I don’t see is why a Mafiosa would, upon reading a very good defense, decide to unvote a townie when things are that close, thereby increasing the odds of that townie not dying. I didn’t just refrain from voting, I’d already cast my vote for dnooman and then recanted it. It was by changing my vote that I drew attention to myself, after all. There were a whole bunch of people on either side of that tie. Any scum would have been quite safely insulated by the mislead townies and they knew it.
I agree with Lemur866’s argument about the spotlight. The Mafia are, for the most part, going to be trying to avoid notice. This isn’t a case of “lynch the lurker”, but rather we should be looking at the people that have done everything to avoid suspicion and to avoid drawing attention to themselves.
That’s a fair point, CaerieD, and I appreciate your explanation of your no-lynch vote.
Except it doesn’t wash. Suppose CaerieD is mafia. We know dnooman was town. If Projammer is mafia then CaeieD’s vote change doesn’t make sense. But if Projammer was town, then CaerieD not voting against either makes her look innocent. But that’s crap, because “not voting against townies” is not the mark of a townie, it’s the mark of a careful mafiosi. Of course, we’ve got too small a sample size to work with here, but anyone who NEVER votes against townies is suspicious because…only the scum know who the townies are.
Unvoting dnooman without voting for anyone else is a way to get her fingerprints off a town lynch. Calling attention to herself this way is a bad move for a scum, but we can’t assume perfect play from anyone.
Marinating together in my Pool of Shame are:
Projammer
fluiddruid
CaerieD
I still don’t buy Projammer’s roleclaim, and nothing I’ve seen since I originally cast my vote for him yester-game-day has improved his stance with me. If anything his “no lynch” vote degraded it even further.
The Kyrie breadcrumb factor is too uncertain for me to use it as kindling to light a fire under anyone’s butt, at least for now, but it is enough to land fluiddruid in my POS.
CaerieD’s “no lynch” also smells fishy to me. “No lynch” votes, or not being around to vote, are like strategic black holes when trying to comb through voting histories in hindsight, regardless of how eloquently rationalized they are.