Mafia The Game III: Kinder and Gentler

The Game Room
921

[QUOTE=ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]
Marinating together in my Pool of Shame are:

Projammer
fluiddruid
CaerieD

I still don’t buy Projammer’s roleclaim, and nothing I’ve seen since I originally cast my vote for him yester-game-day has improved his stance with me. If anything his “no lynch” vote degraded it even further.

The Kyrie breadcrumb factor is too uncertain for me to use it as kindling to light a fire under anyone’s butt, at least for now, but it is enough to land fluiddruid in my POS.

CaerieD’s “no lynch” also smells fishy to me. “No lynch” votes, or not being around to vote, are like strategic black holes when trying to comb through voting histories in hindsight, regardless of how eloquently rationalized they are.
[/QUOTE]

OK, you look less suspicious now. I’ll have to go back and see why I suspected you. If I either can’t find it (d’oh) or you can defend it, you’re off my scum list.

By the way, we’re all pretty involved at this point, save one or two. CaerieD, what do you mean by “people who have been trying not to draw attention to themselves?” It’s another catch-22. Any Mafia can do something really bold (and really anti-town) and then say, “Hey, look, would I be so bold if I were Mafia?” I don’t think that argument holds weight for long.

922

In light of the discussion above, that fluiddruid ** may have been framed, I want to give my vote further consideration and I will unvote fluiddruid ** for now, and I’ll make it a strong FOS **fluiddruid ** instead.

[QUOTE=Millit the Frail]
By the way, we’re all pretty involved at this point, save one or two. CaerieD, what do you mean by “people who have been trying not to draw attention to themselves?” It’s another catch-22. Any Mafia can do something really bold (and really anti-town) and then say, “Hey, look, would I be so bold if I were Mafia?” I don’t think that argument holds weight for long.
[/QUOTE]

Absolutely, the bottom line is, no matter what we start looking for, the mafia will be one step ahead of us. We start looking for lurkers or loud-mouths, they stay near the middle of the post list. If we start looking for people not drawing attention to themselves, they start acting boldly pro-town. They see the exact same discussion as the rest of us.

The other problem is, if we start looking at people who are trying not to draw attention to themselves, it’s entirely possible that we could accidently force a role claim out of the doctor or the night watchman, or a low-lying masons. That’s almost as bad as getting a townie lynched.

What we need to do is figure out how the mafia players are thinking in a way that can’t be fixed. Unlike “they’re not drawing attention to themselves” or “they’re lurking” which can both be fixed fairly quickly, we need to find a tell that can’t be fixed. Voting patterns can’t be undone neither can FOSs or “here’s some horribly anti-town indefensible strategy that looks really good on a cursory view”.

… if only it weren’t as likely that **projammer ** is a breadcrumb, because he’s done it all, including a shady, unprovable role claim, and a no-lynch vote. That said I’m slightly more inclined to believe CaerieD’s no-lynch vote, only because she’s provided a reasoned (although mostly after the fact) defense, still, until either her or projammer is proven town, I’m still not liking that kind of vote because I strongly disagree with the logic, so I’m also going go ahead and FOS CaerieD as well.

That said, if you don’t agree with the top few lynch candidates, I think you’re better off just voting for who you REALLY think is scum, even if they have no chance at that point. If you’re going to be out of town (like I was), pick your best candidate, or simply unvote… who knows, there might be a last minute switch with a role claim or whatever. I just can’t see how a no-lynch is ever pro-town.

I’ve got to have at least one scum between the three of them, right?

923

I agree with you, BlasterMaster, that it is never a good thing to vote “no lynch” or not vote. If you do either of those things and you are on the mafia menu for that night, you have not helped the town at all. You may have improved your own chances of living another night, but you haven’t done the town a favor - and the goal is for the town to win, right?

That is why I have voted even when I changed my mind about voting for someone who had the potential to be lynched - Projammer - I still voted for someone else who had pinged my scumdar. At least it might have the effect of making them explain the things I thought were suspicious.

I’m not quite as suspicious of the “no lynch” voters as I am of the two players who didn’t vote at all. I think there may be a (scummy) reason they are lying so low. Those who voted “no lynch” had to know that attention would be paid to that.

924

[QUOTE=CaerieD]

If somebody wants to level the FOS against me because I voted against lynching a townie, be my guest. Scum would have kept the vote to ensure that dnooman died, rather than leaving it to a coin toss, but clearly, not offing my fellow Citizens is a scum tell. :rolleyes:
[/QUOTE]

Snipping and bolding mine.

That seems really black and white of you. Look at me on day one. I had originally voted for Lightnin’ and a score of others then rushed in and voted for him. Alarmed at the seeming bandwagon, I then changed my vote to someone I was also suspicious of (well, as suspicious as one can be of someone else on the first day) who didn’t have any votes and was in no danger of being lynched.

Why, then, didn’t you just do this? Seems to me at least you’d be putting a vote/suspicion out there so if you ever get killed at night or lynched in the day players can look back over your posts to see who you had fingers on.

The bolded part really strikes me as odd since, really, you don’t KNOW who is town or scum. Why assume who you’re voting for is, then? And again, if you did–and if you didn’t want to be a part of lynching a person you thought of or had reserves of being pro-town–then why not cast a vote for someone else on your suspicions list? Makes no sense.

So yeah, I will place my personal FOS on you still.

925

[QUOTE=CaerieD]
I’m not comfortable making any major accusations just yet, since I’d like to review the thread in closer detail to figure out what I think of the potential breadcrumbs, but I’m responding now since I see some people are thinking I came across scummy for voting no lynch last time around.

I thought I explained my reasons for doing so well enough before, but I’ll explain them again. dnooman had given me some doubt and the behavior of a few others made me think we had scum trying to orchestrate a day kill. I’m particularly suspicious of Rachm Qoch’s behavior at that point.
[/QUOTE]

I don’t follow your reasoning here. I expressed my concern that dnooman might not be mafia well before you got off the dnooman bandwagon. At the time, he was already up 5-4 over Projammer. If I were mafia trying to get a townie lynched, I could have simply and inconspicuously voted for another player with few or no votes, and let things stand as they were. Which, I might add, would have guaranteed dnooman’s death, as it wouldn’t have gone to a tiebreaker. With my name nowhere near any of the action no less.

If you’re talking about my suspicion of Projammer, let me remind you that you expressed your suspicion of Projammer way ahead of me on day one before he was even on my radar, and then proceeded to vote for him on day two. Are you now saying that you were convinced Projammer was town sometime before he claimed as Do-Gooder? Because that’s not the impression I had from reading your posts.

926

[QUOTE=Millit the Frail]
Bingo. It looks like the scum took their time. Say that the Mafia didn’t know that they had the Detective. They just wanted to kill a townie. How would they go about choosing which one to kill, al else being equal? Why Kyrie Eleison? If I were Mafia, at this point in the game, I’d kill someone who had FOSed, or voted for, very obviously, the wrong person. I would know that the town would jump right on that person and lynch away. And look–that’s exactly what’s happening. There’s a bandwagon on fluiddruid just a few hours past dawn. The Mafia don’t even have to vote for her, the town’s going to do the dirty work.

Of course, they can change it up and do things the other way tomorrow night, so that we can’t keep using this reasoning to root them out. I fully expect that they are/were planning to go after someone who really does have it out for Mafia the next time.
[/QUOTE]

You and a few others keep saying things like this. That it would be too “obvious” and and a very, very easy tell. That everyone would think that was the case and go for it.

But would it not, if everyone thought it was the most obvious thing and therefore not want to bother with it, become the LEAST LIKELY thing then that you’d expect scum to do?

Really, you have to think of it in a full circle. Yeah, that all really puts heat (or in SnakesCatLady’s words “head” :wink: ) on fluiddruid and you’d think it would be too obvious. But maybe that’s what they want to have the townies think. “Oh gee, that’s too obvious, it can’t be!” when it fact, it is, because the “Most obvious” thing has now become the “least likely” thing in our minds. And if I were scum, I know I’d want to do the thing I thought was the least likely figured (for town).

927

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
In light of the discussion above, that fluiddruid ** may have been framed, I want to give my vote further consideration and I will unvote fluiddruid ** for now, and I’ll make it a strong FOS **fluiddruid ** instead.
[/quote]

Same here.

I’m really torn here because I have strong suspicions of both fluiddruid and CaerieD..and even though they are both seemingly suspicious of each other in this thread, by their posts, it wouldn’t surprise me to find it’s just a show and both are scum.

This makes the most sense and what I was trying to tell CaerieD in my post above. You said it a lot better though.

928

[QUOTE=Lemur866]
The scum know Kyrie fingered fluiddruid. Kyrie ends up dead. Suspicion falls on fluiddruid. We lynch fluiddruid. Just like they wanted us to. Of course, they knew we’d know this…crap.
[/QUOTE]
I think those of you discussing whether fluiddruid was framed might want to take a look at Post 819 by Kyrie Eleison. Some extracts below.

[QUOTE=Kyrie Eleison]
FWIW, **Kyrie ** spent the day pondering whether he could make some distinction between dnooman and Projammer, both of whom seemed roughly equally likely to be town, or whether to vote for someone he really considered likely to be scum but had no chance of overcoming the momentum already built up against the two of you, or whether to fail to vote altogether.
[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Kyrie Eleison]
I don’t expect that it will become relevant, as it does come a bit late, but on the off-chance, I’d like to say now that I voted for fluiddruid while fully cognizant of the argument that will arise from Rachm’s post, quoted here.
[/QUOTE]
If Kyrie spent the day pondering whether he could make a distinction between projammer and dnooman, does it sound as if he investigated either the night before? And he seems well aware that his vote for fluiddruid could be challenged and reinforces it.

SnakesCatLady, two players voted for a No Lynch,** Projammer** and CaerieD.
[Quote=Projammer]
(P845) I did everything I could short of voting for myself.
[/QUOTE]
I’m not sure you did. I can’t find other posts before this suggesting alternative suspects that you were putting forward or building cases against, and you voted no lynch, not against someone else. Please indicate where you raised your scum suspects.
[QUOTE=CaerieD]
(P911)If somebody wants to level the FOS against me because I voted against lynching a townie, be my guest. Scum would have kept the vote to ensure that dnooman died, rather than leaving it to a coin toss, but clearly, not offing my fellow Citizens is a scum tell.
[/QUOTE]
There’d only have moved to protect him if Projammer was scum. Otherwise why care which townie we lynch? They may even have decided protecting one of their own was too much of a risk and left it to the coin toss.

FOS Projammer

[QUOTE=Lemur866]
So the least suspicious people need to get their turn in the spotlight. I’m not talking about people you’re inclined to trust, I’m talking about people you have absolutely no feeling about either way. These are the people we should take a look at.
[/QUOTE]
Well, the people I am really not sure of are **Millit, SnakesCatLady, ** you Lemur866, and nesta.

And I’d still rather look at what the Detective may have left for us.

929

[QUOTE=fluiddruid]
This is the type of reasoning that is really not helping Town. I’m suspicious for being enthusiastic, participating, and searching out scum in Day One, but I’m also suspicious for not being enthusiastic enough about searching out scum in Day Two, in your estimation. This strikes me as a double-edged sword; essentially, no matter what I do. it’s suspicious to you. This strikes me as suspiciously bad reasoning at best.

[/QUOTE]

Please. Either I’m significantly less clear in my posts than I suspected, or you’re making extremely inaccurate generalizations; I didn’t say I was suspicious of you because of your enthusiasm and because of your lack thereof, I said that your sudden change in behavior had me worried.

[QUOTE=fluiddruid]

Unfortunately, I haven’t seen a whole lot of reasoning to criticize between you and Snakecatlady
[/QUOTE]

…what does she have to do with anything? Are you talking about wanting more to criticize about us in general, or about our specific accusations towards you? (Which, as I’ve repeatedly stated, aren’t that strong to begin with. But I for one haven’t seen a whole lot to convince me otherwise.)

In any case, the burden of proof isn’t on me; it’s on the group as a whole. The voting means that we reach a consensus before doing anything.

[QUOTE=fluiddruid]

Well, let’s look at what you find suspicious about me in detail. You were suspicious of me on Day One because you found that I participated too much. Okay… so let’s look at people who are dead. NAF and dnooman were also high contributors. They are confirmed town. So what does this mean? You seem to be arguing that you are basing your suspicions of me on activities in Day One. So, who else are you suspicious of from Day One because of that same criteria? I don’t seem to be seeing that from you.
[/QUOTE]

Like I mentioned above, you’re mischaracterizing what was said. I explicitly stated that I was suspicious because, unlike the other heavy posters on day 1, most of whom were doing useful analysis, you insisted on questioning extremely simple decisions made by a lot of people. This looked to me like probing either way, whether it’s for scum or power roles I have no clue.

[QUOTE=fluiddruid]

Frankly, I’m equally concerned about your response, and Snakecatlady’s as well:

You have only a few posts more than I do (you’re 6th in post count among the living; I’m 8th). I didn’t participate as much in Day Two due to some real life considerations. But, I think if you put your own posts to scrutiny, you can’t claim that you have more substance. I’m sorry, but it’s the truth. Your posts are short and, prior to late in Day Two, I argue that they were not very substantial. I feel you’re participating more, and that’s good - but whether that’s because you’re just inexperienced and trying to join in more, or because you were criticized and trying to save your neck, I’m not sure.
[/QUOTE]

…do you even read the thread? Post counts are extremely poor indicators of anything other than general participation, and I’m guessing that you dislike my posts primarily because I don’t accuse anyone. I’ve already discussed not having enough evidence to feel confident making firm accusations, so what I have been doing is saying whatever occurs to me at the moment, which tends to be general strategy for both sides.

Oh, and like I mentioned on day 2, I was writing papers for these last two weeks. So please keep your bulls*t conjecture to yourself until you’ve at least read the thread.

[QUOTE=fluiddruid]

In going back through posts, Kyrie Eleison actually seems to put a lot of suspicion on Omi no Kami on Day One - more than I remembered. He seems a very likely candidate for investigation, too. This makes me less likely to suspect you, Omi, since it only makes sense that if he did investigate you, he would have posted something about it on Day Two (even just a little). Still, it’s hard to know at this point. I wish we had more days of investigations to work with. Yet, you didn’t give a final vote last day… so I’m concerned.
[/QUOTE]

Ok, this is just getting silly. We were suspicious of each other on day 1, but Kyrie left absolutely no breadcrumbs regarding me that I can discover. So I’m guessing it’s fairly unlikely that I was the target of an investigation.

[QUOTE=fluiddruid]

Final Vote Count

5 – Projammer (ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta, Millit the Frail, Rachm Qoch, dnooman)
5 – dnooman (Lightnin’, DiggitCamara, Hal Briston, Idle Thoughts, fluiddruid)
2 – fluiddruid (SnakesCatLady, Kyrie Eleison)
2 – No Lynch (Projammer, CaerieD)
1 – CaerieD (Blaster Master)
1 – SnakesCatLady (Lemur866)

I am extremely concerned about the No Lynch votes here. This to me is the most compelling evidence about Projammer, but, I’m not sure. He was under lynching pressure. CaerieD though? I’m concerned. We shouldn’t be voting no lynch. “Throwing your vote away” should be considered a possible scum tell. …
…CaerieD (voted no lynch), Lemur866, Blaster Master, Projammer and SnakesCatLady - and Omi no Kami, you did not even vote (did I miss other non voters?) - I would like to hear a lot more from you guys. It seems likely that some of you (though of course not all) are Mafia if Projammer is town. If he’s not, of course, then of course we should look more at those who voted for dnooman (myself included).

So, for me, it comes down to - is Projammer town?
[/QUOTE]

[/QUOTE]

It’s hard to say, especially in the light of the detective possibly having investigated him, but I’m not convinced Projammer is guilty. Like I’ve said before on day 2, I didn’t vote because I didn’t see any compelling evidence one way or the other.

And I really have to say, it may just be my paranoia, but this “Let’s accuse the people who accuse me by mischaracterizing their comments” crap really isn’t doing a lot to instill confidence about your innocence. :rolleyes:

Anyway. I’m not convinced about either of you, like I’ve said before. It’s seeming more and more likely that you were framed, but all the obfuscation and “Gee, you must be a newbie for accusing me” bullsh*t doesn’t hang well.

930

Nine votes to lynch, by the way. (I almost typed “lunch.”) I’ll provide an updated vote count when a few more people have voted.

931

First off, my apologies for being rather quiet the past few (real world) days – work and family has been hectic, so I’ve just been popping onto the board for a few minutes here and there. No real time to catch up.

I’ve just done a quick readthrough of the day’s events, and have come to one major conclusion: The more sure I am that someone is scum, the more I realize how bad I am at scumdetecting.

With that in mind, here’s the read I’m getting:

Heavy Suspicion:
Projammer
fluiddruid

Suspicion:
CaerieD
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

Slight Suspicion:
Rachm Qoch
Idle Thoughts
nesta
Millit the Frail
Lightnin’

Not Really Sure:
Omi No Kami
tirial
DiggitCamara
SnakesCatLady
Lemur866

Probably Town:
Blaster Master

932

[QUOTE=Hal Briston]
<snip>

I’ve just done a quick readthrough of the day’s events, and have come to one major conclusion: The more sure I am that someone is scum, the more I realize how bad I am at scumdetecting.

<snipped list>
[/quote]

Yeah, that happened with me too in the case of dnooman. This is why, although the top player on my suspicion list is fluiddruid, I’m holding back voting for her for now. I think I’ll probably wind up voting eventually, though..but may change it pending further bandwagoning.

933

As loathe as I am to jump on a bandwagon, I’m going to have to vote Projammer. I stated my suspicions earlier, but no subsequent posts have changed my mind… so I’m going to go ahead and vote.

As an aside, has Town ever won one of these things without getting lucky right at the beginning? I’m seeing a huge advantage for the Mafia. It seems to me that, given the odds, strict random voting by the Scum would result in a Mafia win, since the Townies would never be able to figure out the pattern… at least until the odds reach 50-50 on a choice between Town and Scum, at which point organized voting would take out the rest of the townies.

Of course, I haven’t read over the other threads too much.

934

[QUOTE=Lightnin’]
As loathe as I am to jump on a bandwagon, I’m going to have to vote Projammer. I stated my suspicions earlier, but no subsequent posts have changed my mind… so I’m going to go ahead and vote.
[/QUOTE]

Out of curiosity, what bandwagon? I think you are the first person to vote for Projammer on Day 3.

935

[QUOTE=tirial]
Out of curiosity, what bandwagon? I think you are the first person to vote for Projammer on Day 3.
[/QUOTE]

Huh.

936

[QUOTE=tirial]
Out of curiosity, what bandwagon? I think you are the first person to vote for Projammer on Day 3.
[/QUOTE]

Bah, I completely misread Gadarene’s post. I thought that there were nine posts to lynch Projammer, but I see that it was just a clarification of the number of votes necessary to lynch.

Well, I’ll let it stand, anyway. As I said, I haven’t seen anything which has allayed my suspicions of Projammer, so unless something else comes up which does, I’m not going to unvote.

937

Lightnin’, I misread it also and was frantically going through my notes trying to find nine votes!

938

[QUOTE=Hal Briston]
With that in mind, here’s the read I’m getting:

Heavy Suspicion:
Projammer
fluiddruid

Suspicion:
CaerieD
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

<snippage>

[/QUOTE]

Since you’re not voting for me or FOS’ing me, I’m not too worried. But I just want to point out that the only difference between the top of your list and my list is that I’m not at the bottom of my own list, for what it is worth.

939

[QUOTE=Lightnin’]
Bah, I completely misread Gadarene’s post. I thought that there were nine posts to lynch Projammer, but I see that it was just a clarification of the number of votes necessary to lynch.
[/QUOTE]
So, you were thinking that there were already nine votes on the table for Projammer, and you were throwing in the tenth, damning vote? There’s something to be read there. I just don’t know what it is.

940

[QUOTE=Hal Briston]
So, you were thinking that there were already nine votes on the table for Projammer, and you were throwing in the tenth, damning vote? There’s something to be read there. I just don’t know what it is.
[/QUOTE]

Well, as I said, he was already at the top of my suspicion list. If my vote was the final vote, and nobody else had presented themselves as replacing him on my suspicion list, then it would’ve been silly to abstain from voting.