What - even with the debate on whether fluiddruid was Kyrie’s breadcrumb going on? (And I think it is likely that he was, the mafia didn’t realise Kyrie was the detective - or they’d have recruited him - and killed him for putting together a case against one of them, without realising they were giving us a lead.)
You would deliberately try and end a day early, when the town only gains from longer days?
FOS Lightnin’
Why? If there’s such overwhelming suspicion on my first choice (as both I and SnakesCatLady interpreted Gadarene’s post), how does extending the day help the town? If there was already nine votes for the person I’m most suspicious of, dragging the day out would be counterproductive.
Jeez, didn’t see that coming. :rolleyes:
I hesitate to make a list like dnooman did and Hal did just now because I feel it gives a slight advantage to scum to read what people on the other team think.
While I don’t mind saying who I’m more or most suspicious of, I just feel that saying who I (or anyone) trusts is sort like opening the door for a person who may be scum being able to use the trust or lack of suspicion against you somehow or in some way.
So for now, here are only the people I’m most suspicious of:
Fluiddruid and CaerieD for reasons found in many posts by myself in this topic (most recently in posts 880 and 924, but they stem back to day one and two).
Millit the Frail, for many various reasons I’ve given in posts in here (Like in 483 and 307).
And more and more of tirial, who doesn’t have any posts I can link to that really makes a good case for them being scum but just, having read his/her posts, gives off such a strong vibe to me for reasons I can’t explain but that make sense to me.
As for a fifth mafia member (and if I had to guess at how many there were, I’d say about five or six based on how many total players there were, NOT including the recruit if and when they join their ranks), I don’t know. I’ve got some people I was more suspicious of earlier in the game but that have faded with time. Still, some are on the radar. I’ll hold off saying anything for now.
Please remember, Idle Thoughts, that if the mafia should choose to have you for a midnight snack and you haven’t told us your suspicions you aren’t any help to the town.
Or do you not want to be a help to the town? Bwhhhahhhahhha!
You know, for little things like letting us decide whether fluidruid was Kyrie’s crumb, investigate all the options and make sure most posters can read the whole thread. Just the minor things the give the town an advantage. Or did you hop on the bandwagon without reading the posts for today?
And Idle Thoughts, as mentioned I am female. I’m also not at my best at 11:00 at night.
Well, two things. 
First, I just about did tell you all I suspected of being scum…at least my main concerns.
Secondly, you never really know. They COULD kill me off because I’m all wrong with my guesses and have everyone then think that I was smitten because I was getting too close to something or hitting dead on. It’d be smart because everyone might be gunning for and go against the (falsely accused) people I mentioned.
Just really never know in this game unless you can correctly hit upon what people would do if they were scum.
But before the next night (or if I happen to get a load of votes that seal my face this day) I’ll list those last few suspicions I have.
Who is? 
And sorry, I didn’t catch that before. :o
Sorry, that wasn’t clear to me based on your post. Like I said, there were real life circumstances involved. I just don’t think you would think this change was an indicator if there weren’t other reasons. I’d like to hash out what those reasons are.
Well, exactly my point. You’re criticizing me for not giving enough reasoned discussion of why I disagree with your suspicions, yet at the same time, you have little basis for them. So what’s for me to criticize?
To clarify, I don’t blame you for not having a lot to go on. We don’t, in my opinion, at this point. I’m just trying to explain myself, and trying to understand why you feel my arguments are weak in responding to your suspicions when the suspicions themselves are, in my opinion, also weak.
[qupte]In any case, the burden of proof isn’t on me; it’s on the group as a whole. The voting means that we reach a consensus before doing anything.
[/quote]
No, but the burden of proof is on you to support your arguments. This is the point. I’m not asking you to be my Grand Inquistor - obviously, I’d quite rather you weren’t! - but every one of us needs to be accountable for what we say. Since you and Snakecatlady where the initial ones who voted for me, I felt a personal response was appropriate. After all, if I do get lynched, should I turn out to be town, people are going to want to look at who voted for me.
I guess I wouldn’t characterize what I said that way. On Day One, you don’t have a lot to go on, but ultimately the reasoning should be sound. I’d rather dispute bad reasoning than do nothing, if I have no good information to give – and, sometimes in this game, you don’t.
Actually, that part of my post was intended to be targeted at Snakecatlady’s arguments.
I agree. I don’t think post count is a good indicator. What I do think is that the players who have low counts are receiving an advantage, as those with mid to hig post counts are receiving undue suspicion. The more you say, the more can be interpreted wrongly as a “scum tell” even when it’s not. Like I said, we need to look at the no-votes and the no-lynch-votes very strongly.
I’m not going to say “lynch lurkers”; I’m saying hold people accountable. The failure to break a tie on the last round is significant, though what it means is up for debate. I think we’ve focused a lot on Kyrie Eleison’s possible breadcrumbs - rightly so, to a point - but we’ve ignored the votes and the arguments as to what ended up getting a townie lynched yesterday, largely, in the course of this discussion. This should be examined.
In the end, it is in the best interests of Town to hold people accountable to their actions.
You’re making some assumptions here. I agree you’re not a likely candidate, but again, deconstructing the argument that I was somehow the only possible subject is my interest, because (as I’m sure you gather) I’m emphatically in disagreement with the assumptions that follow.
Given that Kyrie Eleison only posted suspicion of me late in the day, and only in response to Snakecatlady, should be considered. Furthermore he had no special reason to assume he’d be killed, at least that I know of. I don’t see any “detective tells” to speak of. I would have thought he would have been smart not to start posting his breadcrumbs only very late in the day. Again, it’s frustrating because we really only have the single day to work with.
I’m not convinced either. I do believe that it would tell us a great deal about Day One and Day Two’s votes, and what they mean, if we knew for sure, but even to save myself I’m not sure at this point if I want to vote for the guy. I’m not convinced. Would his death tell the town more than mine? Possibly. But at this point I don’t think we can risk another town death. We’ve already had four down and, if Projammer is to be believed, one Do-Gooder outed.
Challenging your arguments does not equal intentionally mischaracterizing them. You’ve been quick to assume that but frankly your suspicions are unclear to you, how are they supposed to be clearer to me?
Uh, where did I say you were a newbie? This is a complete mischaracterization of what I said, for one who feels so compelled to suspect me for “mischaracterizing” you!
In any case, our suspicions have been somewhat limited to those who racked up votes on Day Two. Again, I feel we need to strongly consider the votes in place. I’m sure you disagree, given that you did not vote at all. But, my opinion is that nonvotes or no-lynch votes are not in the interests of Town.
In regards to everyone: I am torn about Projammer. The more I read, the more convinced I may be wrong about him being Town. He’s escaped the noose so far but either a lot of people have genuine suspicion, or he’s a convenient scapegoat. In any case, the strongest evidence I have is his no lynch vote. Along the same lines I have to be suspicious of him, and any no vote/no lynch/throwaway from last time. Of those, based on what’s happened so far today, I’m most strongly suspicious of CaerieD, Projammer, and lemur866, and possibly still you, Omi no Kami… I hope that you’re just a passionate townie, and not someone setting me up as a convenient scapegoat.
Extending the day to the maximum time is never counterproductive, in my opinion. Why would it be? The more time we have, the more posts we have, the more data we have. Ending the day early is really only ever in the interests of scum.
I’m a bit surprised to see you advocating this point of view, Lightnin’. Rushing a vote is not in our best interests, ever. It makes it that much more difficult to sort out where people stood and it gives much more legitimacy to people who fail to vote at all.
I agree that I don’t want the day to end early. I have already cast a vote, but stand ready to change it should I see discussion that makes me doubt my choice. Fluiddruid is not the only person I am suspicious of, just the one I feel most strongly about at the time. If anyone can show me why they think someone else is more likely to be scum I am willing to listen.
Not everyone can get in here as often as I can today; and real life may interfere tomorrow. But I really really really want to emphasize that I believe everyone should vote. Not voting makes people look really suspicious to me.
Good point.
As I said, I was mighty confused by Gadarene’s post. From my point of view, I was, indeed, rushing a lynch… on someone I’d already established as my main suspicion. I still haven’t seen any evidence which has changed my mind on that. I honestly don’t see a good reason for Projammer to claim Do-Gooder status, except to try to avoid a lynching by the town.
Gah, now I’m second-guessing myself. Fluid still doesn’t sit well with me at all, but I’m gonna unvote for now in light of a rather annoying thought: if this is a conspiracy, who exactly would’ve started it? As far as I can tell, everyone who has chimed in has reasonably good reasons to have accused he or projammer…
There is only one vote for Projammer today, and that is by Lightnin’. There are two votes currently for fluiddruid, tirial (first) and myself. There were four for fluiddruid but BlasterMaster and yourself have unvoted. So I really don’t see a conspiracy yet…
I feel more comfortable with lynching fluiddruid after hearing some more arguments. I’m still not completely convinced, but then again, it’s impossible to feel 100% sure about anything in this game. How disorienting. 
I’m very glad things slowed down and we had some more back-and-forth talk about the possible breadcrumb, et cetera. It’s easier to see where people are in their thinking and to root out their motives when we’re overanalyzing everything.
By the way, I hope to God there aren’t six Mafia. Six Mafia plus one recruit is way too many for a game this size, if you want to give the town a chance at all! We could be outnumbered, like, tomorrow, if there were seven Mafia at this point. Not good. We really have to get one tonight. I think either fluiddruid or Projammer will be our final choice, based on how things look now. At least one of them has got to be Mafia. I’m almost certain that Projammer is.
I’m really been thinking about this “conspiracy to frame fluiddruid” of which I’m only becoming more uncertain. That said, I’m not sure if who has voted for her will tell us anything, because we really don’t know whether it is a clever bluff by the mafia to frame an innocent townie, a double-bluff to make a member of the mafia look innocent, or is a fabrication of the town’s collective imagination.
As I believe was said earlier, it’s unlikely the mafia knew Kyrie was the detective, because it’s hard for us to find her crumbs even with perfect knowledge. If they did know she was the detective, then they did a VERY bold move knowing what would have been seen as potential breadcrumbs.
Thus, I’m thinking the best way to approach the fluiddruid conspiracy theory is from a completely different angle. Assuming they didn’t know Kyrie was the detective, that makes the potential bread crumb useless for this analysis, and we’re left with three scenarios:
fluiddruid is scum. Mafia consider killing somone, who’s general trust AFAICT was somewhere around a big question mark, knowing that it would place more heat on fluiddruid because she was already highly suspected. This is bold, but the more I think about it, the more I’m not sure because fluiddruid is coming across to me more as an frantic townie than a well planned out double bluff, but that could also be part of the plan.
fluiddruid is a townie and is being framed. This is an obvious potential mafia ploy to frame a townie who is already highly suspected. This is highly likely, but obviously, knowing that it’s likely, and knowing that the mafia know it’s common, it only makes the first scenario more attractive to them.
Kyrie was killed for some other reason. Maybe they thought Kyrie was the night watchman, doc, detective, or a mason. Maybe they picked who they thought was least likely to be protected because they are trying to maximize body count. Maybe they thought she was a good player (the seeming concensus on why NAF was killed). We can’t ignore the possibility that fluiddruid had nothing to do either way with last night’s kill, but I am inclined to believe this is one has the lowest probability of the three scenarios.
So, in essence, I’m really not sure what to make of fluiddruid as this point OR what to make of Kyrie’s breadcrumb. If we lynch fluiddruid and she is scum, does that mean that she was the breadcrumb and **projammer ** is then not in the clear or could he still have been the breadcrumb and we just got lucky on fluiddruid? If we lynch fluiddruid and she isn’t scum, does that mean the breadcrumb was projammer and he also isn’t scum? What if we lynch **projammer ** and he comes up town, does that mean fluiddruid is not the breadcrumb and is in the clear, or is was she actually the breadcrumb? What if we lynch projammer and he comes up scum, does the mean fluiddruid is the breadcrumb and is also scum? Only that last one is beneficial thought to the town, the others are either neutral (1-1 in day, 0-2 at night, maintaining the suspected 25% mafia to town ratio) or bad for the town. And if I am the breadcrumb, as has been suggested, that basically makes the whole breadcrumb completely useless for looking at our current top suspects.
So basically, since we don’t have any real degree of certainty, Kyrie’s breadcrumb looks to be a complete wash at this point, and wil only be useful when two of the three potential breadcrumbs are dead AND both of them turned up opposite of what the potential crumb is.
Pretty much what I’d been thinking as well. Was the breadcrumb that you’re town? Or that fluiddruid is scum? Or was it on Projammer? If our Detective could have survived just one more night we would have had some sort of pattern to start going off of, but as it is she only had one night to investigate before she was silenced forever. So only one breadcrumb could be the one she intended, but that doesn’t guarantee the other suggestions were false. There was no massively foolish “throwing the whole loaf for a breadcrumb” move like I did in the last game. :smack:
Unless someone offers some brilliant analysis on this point, it looks to me like the breadcrumbs are useless for the moment, though this might become key at some point further into the game.
I would also like to hear other’s opinion as to why Projammer wasn’t fitted with concrete shoes after he role-claimed. Was it because the scum figure we will be suspicious of him? Or because he is scum?
And for the record, the reason I voted for fluiddruid yester"day" is because of his vote for percypercy on Day 1. It was just reinforced for me by Kyrie voting for him also. When Kyrie got taken out, it seemed that the scum might be protecting fluiddruid because no one seems to take me seriously, whereas they might take him seriously.
I don’t think it even crossed their minds to night kill Projammer, since he was one of those deciding who to night kill. To give him a little benefit of the doubt, though, why take him out if he is town? He’s done a wonderful job of convincing a bunch of us he’s scum, and he role-claimed a completely useless (now that it’s out in the open) role. We have no way to verify it, so it doesn’t really help us decide if he’s scum or not. With no way to verify his role short of his death, he’s doesn’t even gain confirmed town status like masons do. He’s no threat to the Mafia like a doctor or detective. They have no reason to kill him at all.
Of course, that’s why I think he claimed that role. Claiming something that can be easily proven false is suicide. Better to keep the waters muddy and keep us all confused.
Well color me confused. Not at wondering if fluiddruid is innocent or any thought of a “frame-up”. I’m more confused at those unvoting her. I think if Kyrie was leaving a breadcrumb, he’d leave it a bit more obvious and not as subtle. It seems obvious to me that he was VERY sure of his vote, both in post 813 and then, in 819, all of saying that his vote stands even though he knew of other observations at the time.
Either the killing of him was lucky or it wasn’t.
If it was just pure luck, then the odds that fluiddruid is scum is, like it was before to vanilla citizens, fifty-fifty.
If it wasn’t, then they HAD to know somehow that he was the detective, and the only thing that I can think of as showing this is voting for someone who is scum and getting it right.
It is true that SnakesCatLady also voted for fluiddruid last day but that could be explained as either: A. SnakesCatLady is also a scummy person or B the mafia players simply chose out of the two. Again, this is barring that fluiddruid is mafia.
What we DO know, for sure, though is:
Kyrie was the detective and Kyrie only made two references to the status of others. Un-FOSing Blaster Master and voting (and then saying he’s standing by that vote rather firmly later on) for fluiddruid. I don’t know about anyone else but to ME, the second action was the most breadcrumby JUST IN CASE he ever was snuffed out.
So based on that, I’m going to go back to the basics and vote fluiddruid.
I disagree. If Kyrie did leave a breadcrumb (and I think the chances that he did are much higher than not) it’s the only solid piece of information we have about any players still alive. I’m not willing to discount that just because I’m not 100% sure of which breadcrumb was the breadcrumb. I’m about 75% sure that the breadcrumb was fluiddruid, just based on how sure Kyrie seemed to be about his vote, where he didn’t seem very convinced about the other possibilities. That 75% chance that we can nail a scum seems a lot better to me at the moment than any other options I can currently come up with.