Mafia The Game III: Kinder and Gentler

The Game Room
961

[QUOTE=Idle Thoughts]

If it was just pure luck, then the odds that fluiddruid is scum is, like it was before to vanilla citizens, fifty-fifty.
[/QUOTE]

Quoting myself just to clarify. If it was just pure luck (and Kyrie never did check fluiddruid or OR fluiddruid is not scum) then I don’t see how a frame-up could be taking place since neither the mafia nor Kyrie knew what she was.

But it’s apparent that since he DID vote for her, he must have not checked her out and found her to be innocent (or didn’t check her out at all but if that’s IS the case, I don’t know why he’d make so strong of an accusation and firm belief in his vote in 819).

If he was just guessing in the dark like the rest of us and the mafia was just guessing in the dark..well, I still think voting for fluiddruid is the best course as of now since it was the only lead the detective brought to light (well, the stronger of the two, in my opinion).

962

[QUOTE=Idle Thoughts]
… then I don’t see how a frame-up could be taking place since neither the mafia nor Kyrie knew what she was.

[/QUOTE]

Aaaaand quoting again just to clarify that I mean the mafia wouldn’t know what Kyrie was and Kyrie wouldn’t know what fluiddruid was. Not “the mafia would not know what fluiddruid was”. :stuck_out_tongue:

963

[QUOTE=Idle Thoughts]
Either the killing of him was lucky or it wasn’t.
If it was just pure luck, then the odds that fluiddruid is scum is, like it was before to vanilla citizens, fifty-fifty.
[/QUOTE]

I very much agree with your post, but I just want to mention that if the odds of any one of us being Mafia are fifty-fifty then we’ve pretty much lost.

The odds of a random person being Mafia right now is 31% or 37% (I think) depending on if there are 5 or 6 mafia.

964

Hahah, oh I know that. I meant to say/mean “she’s either one or she’s not”. Anyone who we bump off in the day will either be scum or town so…yeah. But you’re right. With more town, the chances that we’d get one (town) are better (unfortunatly) but in regards to what anyone could be, there’s only two choices. shrugs

I just think that’s the only thing we have to go on really if we’re going to put faith in the detective at all to help out his team somehow (while he was still among the living).

965

Just an interesting thought - going back through my notes, the first person to vote for fluiddruid was NAF1138. He did unvote her.

966

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
I’m really been thinking about this “conspiracy to frame fluiddruid” of which I’m only becoming more uncertain. That said, I’m not sure if who has voted for her will tell us anything, because we really don’t know whether it is a clever bluff by the mafia to frame an innocent townie, a double-bluff to make a member of the mafia look innocent, or is a fabrication of the town’s collective imagination.

As I believe was said earlier, it’s unlikely the mafia knew Kyrie was the detective, because it’s hard for us to find her crumbs even with perfect knowledge. If they did know she was the detective, then they did a VERY bold move knowing what would have been seen as potential breadcrumbs.

Thus, I’m thinking the best way to approach the fluiddruid conspiracy theory is from a completely different angle. Assuming they didn’t know Kyrie was the detective, that makes the potential bread crumb useless for this analysis, and we’re left with three scenarios:

  1. fluiddruid is scum. Mafia consider killing somone, who’s general trust AFAICT was somewhere around a big question mark, knowing that it would place more heat on fluiddruid because she was already highly suspected. This is bold, but the more I think about it, the more I’m not sure because fluiddruid is coming across to me more as an frantic townie than a well planned out double bluff, but that could also be part of the plan.

  2. fluiddruid is a townie and is being framed. This is an obvious potential mafia ploy to frame a townie who is already highly suspected. This is highly likely, but obviously, knowing that it’s likely, and knowing that the mafia know it’s common, it only makes the first scenario more attractive to them.

  3. Kyrie was killed for some other reason. Maybe they thought Kyrie was the night watchman, doc, detective, or a mason. Maybe they picked who they thought was least likely to be protected because they are trying to maximize body count. Maybe they thought she was a good player (the seeming concensus on why NAF was killed). We can’t ignore the possibility that fluiddruid had nothing to do either way with last night’s kill, but I am inclined to believe this is one has the lowest probability of the three scenarios.
    [/QUOTE]

My view is that 2) above is the least likely. As you said, framing a townie in thhis way is an obvious Mafia ploy. Now you could say that they’d expect us to think that, and come full circle as Idle Thoughts would say, doing the exact opposite. But you can always keep swinging 180 degrees, reasoning that the mafia will do the opposite of the opposite of the opposite ad infinitum of what the town would normally expect.

The argument comes down to whether the mafia would or wouldn’t try to pull this kind of a townie frame-up. Such an obvious frame-up is IMO unlikely.
Vote fluiddruid

967

[QUOTE=nesta]
I disagree. If Kyrie did leave a breadcrumb (and I think the chances that he did are much higher than not) it’s the only solid piece of information we have about any players still alive. I’m not willing to discount that just because I’m not 100% sure of which breadcrumb was the breadcrumb. I’m about 75% sure that the breadcrumb was fluiddruid, just based on how sure Kyrie seemed to be about his vote, where he didn’t seem very convinced about the other possibilities. That 75% chance that we can nail a scum seems a lot better to me at the moment than any other options I can currently come up with.
[/QUOTE]

Allow me to try to state my point better, I do think it’s likely that fluiddruid is the breadcrumb, but I am also suspicious of **fluiddruid ** for other reasons, and not simply because. While I’m still unsure, she is right at the top of my scum list along with Projammer; closely followed by CaerieD. I’d be pretty much happy to vote for any of them, but because of my doubt about the breadcrumb, I unvoted to attempt to prevent a potentially disasterous speed lynch. I expect my vote will end up on fluiddruid by the end of the day, but I won’t be a contributor to the day ending unnecessarily early.

My point about the breadcrumb was, say we lynch **fluiddruid ** and she comes up as scum… does that mean that was definitely the crumb? It’s also entirely possible that the crumb was **projammer ** and the vote was simply lucky. Similarly, if we lynch projammer and he comes up town, does that mean he was definitely the crumb? It could still be entirely possible that it was **fluiddruid ** as scum.

IOW, I don’t think the potential breadcrumb alone is enough to either condemn **fluiddruid ** or save projammer… or me for that matter.

Here’s the way I see it, ignoring that I could be the crumb for simplicity’s sake. If we lynch projammer and he’s scum, he definitely wasn’t the crumb, which means fluiddruid is also definitely scum and should be lynched the next day. If we lynch fluiddruid and she comes up town, that means she definitely wasn’t the crumb, and **projammer ** is basically town confirmed.

The problem is, the two most likely crumbs are right at the top of my suspicion list, but the only way to test and truly be sure of the crumb and put it to use is to kill either projammer or fluiddruid and hope for one of the above two scenarios.

I’m unsure if I’m making any more sense because it’s so late. Maybe I’ll take another crack at it tomorrow if I’m not.

968

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
It’s also entirely possible that the crumb was projammer and the vote was simply lucky.
[/QUOTE]

Sorry, but where’s the mention from Kyrie that would make Projammer the crumb? I can only find two posters he’s made standalone references to in his posts - fluiddruid and you.

969

After thinking about it and going back over stuff, I think it’s a mistake at this point to try voting based off of Kyrie’s potential breadcrumbs. I don’t think there was any sort of real pattern established. I’m rather curious that Blaster Master is almost completely ignoring the fact that he’s a potential breadcrumb himself, but I don’t think that makes him scum. I just think we’ve all been at this for a while now and are starting to lose perspective.

Votes and suspicion are coming based off of where dead townies were glaring into the darkness and when people voted for townies. Why? Have any player drop dead at this moment and he or she has probably fingered four other townies. At this point, is there a single one of us who hasn’t looked suspiciously at a confirmed townie? Our Detective only had the chance to investigate one person and with no pattern of suspicion and trust established over days, we don’t really have anything to go on. Also, the scum aren’t idiots. They’ve got the benefit of foreknowledge, they’ve got the benefit of night communication and veiled day communication, and they’re from an entirely random selection of highly competitive people who over-think everything. They can and will do everything townies will do and they don’t have to be genuinely concerned and confused over who to vote for. All they need to do is whatever is going to draw the least amount of attention to them and get townies killed. Looking for elaborate plots and “the wine in front of me” style thinking isn’t going to work. The Mafia don’t need that. All they need is to grab onto something and settle down into comfortable anonymity.

That in mind, I’m voting for SnakesCatLady.

I think she’s very good at keeping suspicion off of her. She was the first to vote for Projammer and then when things got hot she “threw her vote away” as dnooman put it by voting for fluiddruid. This had about as much chance of changing the outcome of the lynch as my vote for no lynch, but it was a very subtle move that hasn’t drawn any attention to her today, unlike my fear of seeing another townie get lynched and inability to choose someone. Throughout the whole game she’s played pretty similarly. Smart, careful, and mostly quiet.

But, that move didn’t go entirely unnoticed. dnooman asked her about it and she responded in post #810. But as dnooman pointed out in his response in #811, this was a thrown away vote that did nothing but bring dnooman closer to lynching. Her response in #827 is pretty defensive and odd in hindsight. How does voting for someone she’s not sure of help the town? Well, true, but unless you’re the Detective (which we know she isn’t) you aren’t sure of anyone. Unless you’re scum.

The thing that made me decide to put my vote on SnakesCatLady, though, was a throwaway line. In post #903 she asks:

In the last game’s commentary thread, NAF1138 revealed that nesta got offed for referring to a Mafia kill as a “lynch.” Who but Mafia would refer to it that way? And guess what? In the last game nesta was scum. I’m betting I’m looking at a similar slip of the fingers here.

970

[QUOTE=CaerieD]
snip

They’ve got the benefit of foreknowledge, they’ve got the benefit of night communication and veiled day communication, and they’re from an entirely random selection of highly competitive people who over-think everything. They can and will do everything townies will do and they don’t have to be genuinely concerned and confused over who to vote for. All they need to do is whatever is going to draw the least amount of attention to them and get townies killed. Looking for elaborate plots and “the wine in front of me” style thinking isn’t going to work. The Mafia don’t need that. All they need is to grab onto something and settle down into comfortable anonymity.
[/QUOTE]

Let me get this straight…are you saying the Mafia have it easy? I was under the impression that a good game of Mafia would be balanced so that both sides have it equally hard. That’s why the town has the advantage in numbers, a few power roles, the longer discussion time, etc. In the first game, Werewolf, the town won. It looks like there’s still a chance for the town to win in WW II:Mafia, even though they’ve royally screwed up multiple times. I think that the Mafia is probably working very hard, and that we shouldn’t underestimate them.

Is that what you want us to do, underestimate them? :dubious:

971

Updated Vote Count

4 – fluiddruid (tirial, SnakesCatLady, Idle Thoughts, Rachm Qoch)
1 – Projammer (Lightnin’)
1 – SnakesCatLady (CaerieD)

972

[QUOTE=Millit the Frail]
Let me get this straight…are you saying the Mafia have it easy? I was under the impression that a good game of Mafia would be balanced so that both sides have it equally hard. That’s why the town has the advantage in numbers, a few power roles, the longer discussion time, etc. In the first game, Werewolf, the town won. It looks like there’s still a chance for the town to win in WW II:Mafia, even though they’ve royally screwed up multiple times. I think that the Mafia is probably working very hard, and that we shouldn’t underestimate them.

Is that what you want us to do, underestimate them? :dubious:
[/QUOTE]

No, not at all. In fact, I was saying almost the exact opposite of that. They’re working extremely hard. They’re also likely being far more subtle than anyone is giving them credit for. These attempts to look for conspiracies haven’t brought a single scum to lynch yet. True, we’re only two days in, but we’ve lynched two townies and have lost two–including a power role–to night kills. We still have the benefit of numbers on our side so it’s hardly like the game is lost just yet, but I don’t think the current tactics are accomplishing much.

There is data to be seen in voting history, but I don’t think it’s going to be big flashing neon lights. There’s data to be seen in discussion and analysis, but I don’t think it’s going to be quite so convoluted as we’ve been assuming it is.

Aside from my dismal experience in WWII, I’ve never played this game before but I have played lots of other role-playing games. In my experience, tactics that involve treating other people like pieces on a chess board don’t actually work as well in real life as they do in movies. People are complex. People don’t react the way you want them to. If your plan involves more than two steps of “if I do this, then he’ll do that” then it’s generally doomed for failure. Far better to give a little bit of bait and then stand back. Kill a townie who’s made some accusation against another townie (easy enough to do at this point) and then cast suspicion on the accused townie! Voila–two dead townies. If they don’t take the bait, no harm done. Just gently turn attention to someone else until a townie bites. They’re working very hard, but they aren’t putting the final nails in our coffins. They’re getting us to do their work for them.

973

[QUOTE=CaerieD]

That in mind, I’m voting for SnakesCatLady.

I think she’s very good at keeping suspicion off of her. She was the first to vote for Projammer

The thing that made me decide to put my vote on SnakesCatLady, though, was a throwaway line. In post #903 she asks:

In the last game’s commentary thread, NAF1138 revealed that nesta got offed for referring to a Mafia kill as a “lynch.” Who but Mafia would refer to it that way? And guess what? In the last game nesta was scum. I’m betting I’m looking at a similar slip of the fingers here.
[/QUOTE]

Bravo, CaerieD! slowclap Nice selective quotation! I’m impressed! I notice you didn’t bother to mention that I corrected the typo in post #903 immediately in post #904 - but that wouldn’t make the point you are trying to make, would it? Could it be that you see the tide starting to turn for your buddy fluiddruid and are trying to distract the townies with an “oh look! Shiny!” tactic? I unvoted for Projammer because he role-claimed. I wasn’t as suspicious of dnooman as I was of some others; if you care to look at my voting record I never voted for him. As I said to dnooman and will say to you - I will not vote for someone just because everyone else is. I don’t follow the pack in real life and I’m not going to do it here. I will cast my votes where my suspicions fall. That way, if I am night killed, the rest of the town has something to go on in my voting record instead of a bunch of useless “follow the leader” votes. It most emphatically did not have the same effect as your “no lynch” vote. It left a record of my suspicions if I had been killed that night.

Just so you know, your comment not only makes me more sure of my vote for fluiddruid, it pings my scumdar on you, where before you hadn’t really been on the screen.

974

Hi again. Sorry for not posting yesterday (real-world time).

As of now, I can’t add anything substantial to the discussion.

A couple of points, though:

I’ve been looking at dearly departed Kyrie Eleison’s posts and I don’t really see any significant breadcrumbs. My guess is she investigated NAF during the first night and, obviously, whatever she did during the second night won’t help us at all.

My guess would be that the mafia targetted the most experienced player during the first night and decided to target a relatively quiet townsperson on the second night, guessing (in this case correctly) that the power roles would be quieter than the rest.

975

[QUOTE=CaerieD]
The thing that made me decide to put my vote on SnakesCatLady, though, was a throwaway line. In post #903 she asks:

“I was curious as to why Kyrie was lynched when Projammer had role-claimed. It crossed my mind that the scum know we are still suspicious of him, so they didn’t get him in order to get us to do their work for them - and take the head off of fluiddruid.”

In the last game’s commentary thread, NAF1138 revealed that nesta got offed for referring to a Mafia kill as a “lynch.” Who but Mafia would refer to it that way? And guess what? In the last game nesta was scum. I’m betting I’m looking at a similar slip of the fingers here.
[/QUOTE]

:dubious: You might as well vote to string me up next then, because I also indirectly refer to Kyrie’s night kill as a “lynch” in post #878. I did not follow the second game very closely, but the idea of using death-slang preferences as a litmus test for scum strikes me as…well…batshit crazy.
Even if nesta’s death was prompted by the use of the word “lynch”, I’d still consider that kill as pure dumb mafia luck.

That being said, I’m still slowly chipping away at a decision between a vote for Projammer or fluiddruid, for now.

976

While I’d like to hope that CaerieD is correct and the initial push towards me was solely Mafia-driven, I simply don’t think it’s that easy. I think it comes down to we are still townies lynching townies.

While I do think that the lynch response to me wasn’t entirely unintentional as part of the reason Kyrie Eleison got offed, the Mafia wouldn’t want to be the first ones plugging it; they’d want townies to do it for them, most likely. Plus, I agree that the simple wrong word of “lynch” vs “night kill” on Snakescatlady doesn’t ping as scum. If it happened in the other game? I guess, but really, isn’t it just as likely a mistake?

I’m sure people don’t trust me at this point, but I guess I have a few more points in my own defense.

If voting for me was a “breadcrumb”, wasn’t it a rather obvious and emphatic one for a Detective’s first investigation? Jumping on board with Snakecatlady at the end of the day with a long post regarding why he’s voting for me just doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense for someone who is hiding their role. I would have expected a “breadcrumb” to be more subtle. The closest contender I can see is his “anti-FOS” of Blaster Master, though yes, it’s possible he was investigating NAF as DiggitCamera suggested.

Look at his post about me objectively. Does it say breadcrumb to you? It’s more like a loaf of bread, for goodness sakes. :slight_smile:

977

[QUOTE=ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]
I did not follow the second game very closely, but the idea of using death-slang preferences as a litmus test for scum strikes me as…well…batshit crazy.
Even if nesta’s death was prompted by the use of the word “lynch”, I’d still consider that kill as pure dumb mafia luck.
[/QUOTE]

Yes, that’s pretty weak reasoning for suspecting someone. BTW, it was dumb SK luck that got me. I actually think he had a bit more of a reason to kill me than my calling a night-kill a lynch, but I can’t be sure until the game 2 people finally manage to avenge me by killing the SK.

To be fair, SnakesCatLady calling the Mafia kill a lynch did jump off the page at me, like I guess it did to CaerieD. I think it’s obvious why I would notice it, but I do have to wonder why she did. I wouldn’t be surprised if this came up as a scum tell on the Mafia board the first night, saying “this caused the first Mafia death in game 2, so don’t do this.” Any scum who followed game 2 at all would be extra-careful not to make this slip.

978

CaerieD, I see that I misunderstood your point; you weren’t referring to my typo of “head” for “heat” but to the fact that I used “lynch” instead of “night kill”. :rolleyes: My post still applies, I think you are trying to use misdirection to get the scent off of fluiddruid.

In another thread, I typed “lunch” instead of “lynch”. Does that make me a werewolf?

979

Sigh. Well, I really thought I was onto something, but apparently nobody else sees it. I don’t know what I think of fluiddruid, but I don’t buy that she’s the breadcrumb. If that makes me look scummy…eh. Nothing I can do about it. I defend myself to one person and ping the scumdar of two more. When I get offed, at least you’ll all see I was a townie the whole time and might start looking at some of what I’ve been saying.

980

I must admit, I’ve accidentally referred to a Mafia kill as a lynching, and then gone back to fix it to clarify. It’s an easy mistake, and one I don’t really think should be used as a tell.

I also type “lunch” just about every time.