Mafia The Game III: Kinder and Gentler

[Lightnin]

@tirial

You seem to have missed every post in the game refering to the number of mafia as 4-6. This is because less than 4 and the mafia usually don’t win, and more than 6 and they normally always win. Allowing for the recuit, this makes 4 or 5 the most likely starting number. With one gone, and a possible recruit the number is likely to be anywhere between 3 and 5.

I just wanted that cleared up. I’d seen those posts, and I’d been working on the assumption that there were three left, barring recruitments (entirely possible, as there’ve been two no-kill days and we only have one Do-Gooder left). You seem pretty certain of the number of remaining scum in your previous post, however.

@tirial

Read them. You didn’t answer the questions about why you were incriminating yourself, or even whether you understood how your actions could be taken as incriminating.

Maybe it’s because I’m a little confused- my “incriminating actions” seem circumstantial at best, and easily explained by my being new to the game and voting poorly, due to lack of information, the first three days.

As to your other questions, in my hurry to answer your initial questions, I’d missed the other questions you’d asked later on. Here, I’ll answer them now.

@tirial

a) when I make a post saying that you are either inept or scum, did you protest you weren’t inept? I’d have expected you to protest you weren’t either, or that you weren’t scum.

So basically, my only two options are being inept, or being scum. Gotcha. Because I didn’t protest being both, I’m Scum. That’s your reason to suspect me?

Frankly, that’s pretty insulting. You say I’m Scum- but if it turns out I’m Town, I’m inept. I actually came this close to just quitting the game right then.

@tirial

b) why when voting for CaerieD didn’t you justify it for any of the many reasons that don’t incriminate you? Instead you used my post which does.

Because the reason I had for CaerieD was what I’d given. If it implicated me, well, whatever- the fact that going after her in the way I did revealed a Scum on the day before should’ve exonerated me.

@tirial

And from your earlier post: Can you understand why I might do the same thing? My Day Two target was you.

Certainly. However, if you’re going to ask me those questions, at least acknowledge the fact that I answered them. If you’re still suspicious of me, that’s fine- but if you’re not going to acknowledge the answers I gave you, don’t bother asking 'em.

Man, I can’t wait to be lynched. Granted, it’ll mean I’m inept, by elimination, but I can only imagine you’ll be next on the rope.

[Idle_Thoughts]

Gee, SCL, I don’t see many people jumping on the bandwagon for you, do you? I’d think if you really WERE town, all the scum would be rushing to vote for you just to make me look scummy the next day. Where are all the votes for you? Or are scum staying away from you and voting for other people?

[Hal_Briston]

@CaerieD

Now I’m left wondering what Gadarene would do if we did start voting for ourselves…

It’s been done.

[SnakesCatLady]

@Idle Thoughts

Gee, SCL, I don’t see many people jumping on the bandwagon for you, do you? I’d think if you really WERE town, all the scum would be rushing to vote for you just to make me look scummy the next day. Where are all the votes for you? Or are scum staying away from you and voting for other people?

I’m not sure how others vote, but I am certainly not going to vote for someone I’m not sure of just to make another player “look scummy”. If you are scum, it will be told soon enough. We’ve lost enough townies already.

[Lemur866]

Arg, I thought we had longer. So it comes down to the wire, and we have to vote. I’m going to go out on a limb and vote SnakesCatLady.

I don’t have any strong feelings for or against anyone left in the game, but I think we caught the mafia in a double-bluff with the Kyrie-Fluiddruid saga. Kyrie fingers Fluidddruid, they kill Kyrie, thinking we’d suspect Fluiddruid LESS because it would be too obvious to kill someone for suspecting a real mafiosi. Except Fluiddruid really was scum. So…in her last post, Fluiddruid does everything possible to tell us that SnakesCatLady is scum.

What does that mean to me?

Most likely that Fluiddruid was trying to protect SnakesCatLady, under the theory that once she was dead we’d think everything she said was a lie. Don’t throw me in that briar patch! Maybe we’d be better off just pretending that last post never happened, but I don’t think we can afford to throw out information, even though we know every scrap of that information was designed to mislead us.

This alone wouldn’t really be enough, but adding it to my allready existing gut feeling against SnakesCatLady, and it tips the scales.

[nesta]

@Hal Briston

Now, I see two possibilities here:

1. You’re town – you wanted to see if there was anything to the rising suspicion against me, so you picked through all my posts and culled that which you thought relevant. You somehow missed a lot of obvious answers, but you didn’t mean to. You simply had the town’s best interest at heart, and so you presented your evidence with honesty.

Ding ding ding. Except I don’t think I missed a lot of obvious answers. I am aware of why a legitimate townie might make some of the mistakes you’ve made, but I’m also aware of why scum might make them intentionally. I freely admit that I approached your posts looking for signs of scuminess, because I’d really like figure out who the remaining scum are.

It wasn’t any one action that has made me more suspicious of you than I was before, but the sum total. After I’d reviewed all your posts I realized that most of them did things that scum would do, and very few of them (if any) did things scum wouldn’t do. If you think I missed some that prove your towniness please point them out.

@Hal Briston

Actually, I believe you know exactly where I stand.

I really wish I did.

@Hal Briston

<shrug> Newbie mistake. Yup…it was my first game post, and it seemed like something I should get out the way at the time. At that point, I had read the first few days of Werewolf, and hadn’t looked into the first Mafia thread at all. I figured it was a standard move (obviously, I now realize it’s not a good thing to do at all).

Yeah, it could have been a newbie mistake, of either a townie, scum, or other power role. I think it’s more likely that it would be a scum newbie mistake, which is why I listed it. I also pointed it out to put Kyrie Eleison’s FOS of you in context. Kyrie is confirmed town, and had some pretty good instincts early in the game, so her FOS carries a little more weight with me than most others’.

@Hal Briston

Yeah, that was me. I killed them. Both of them. They never saw it coming…got them both, completely on my own.

Yes, that’s exactly what I said. You must be the only scum, because you so directly killed both of them. Thank you for clearing that up.

@Hal Brison

Oh, wait, no, I remember now – I clearly said in the quoted post that my suspicions against NAF were wavering, and I later unvoted him. I also clearly explained my suspicions against percypercy, and for them to influence anyone else’s vote, that person would have to have had the same opinion of DiggitCamara that I had.

It was early in the game, so I don’t put much weight on your suspicion of NAF and percypercy, but it is a data point worth remembering that you were one of those who were casting suspicion on two confirmed townies, and one of them wound up lynched on Day 1.

Also, you didn’t answer this part, which was the more important part of that point:

@me

Also notice dnooman, who he says is pinging heavily townie. Keep that in mind as he switches to helping to get dnooman lynched the next day.

@Hal Briston

So, my wondering if role assignments were random was in some way a scum tell, even though it has come out that some GMs don’t randomly assign? Ohhhh-kay then.

I didn’t say your question is a scum tell. Please re-read that section of my post. I said:

@me

This post seems a little over-defensive to me. [sentence that actually makes sense inserted]I didn’t think ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies’s gut feeling that neither Hal Briston or Idle Thoughts would legitimately be pondering this issue is absurd.[/sentence] Later Idle Thoughts says that in games he runs roles aren’t assigned randomly, but Hal Briston’s reaction seemed over the top.

This was pointing out your post replying to ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies’s who FOSed you based on her gut feeling. In your over-defensive post you said:

@Hal Briston

Maybe I’m not paying close enough attention, but that has to be one of the single most absurd statements I’ve seen in here so far.

That’s what I was pointing out, not your original role assignment question. Having a gut feeling that someone isn’t asking a question for the town’s benefit, but instead trying to shape how that player is perceived, isn’t absurd. Taken in context, at that point in the game, it was a perfectly legitimate feeling to have, and one I somewhat shared at the time. You saying it was one of the single most absurd statements so far was a little absurd itself.

@Hal Briston

Ok, let’s get this straight.

You ask “Who derailed the Projammerwagon?”
I say “It looks like dnooman suggested it here”.

You ask a question, I give a factual answer. Woah, good thing you pointed that out to everyone.

Yes, you were answering my question, and the answer was factual, but it doesn’t make the answer any less significant. I pointed this post out for two reasons: it was the first suspicion anyone had cast on dnooman on Day 2, the day he was lynched; also, I then go on to post a number of other posts throughout the day where you suspect dnooman, so this first post seemed relevant.

@Hal Briston

Actually, no. Sorry if it was misleading, but the names were in no particular order. I was equally suspicious of the both of them.

I assumed it was in order of most to least scummy. I think I assumed this because you voted for Projammer that day and not fluiddruid, and stated at the time of your vote you were slightly more suspicious of Projammer than fluiddruid.

@Hal Briston

Or, it could have something to do with the printout of Gadarene’s roles post tacked up two feet to my right.

Fair enough. I debated including that part, but decided to because I remembered being surprised that I had missed the rule myself, but also to contrast this familiarity with the rules against asking for clarification later on if the Mafia were aware each other’s identities during Day 1, which I thought was already well established.

@Hal Briston

Now, here’s where my problem comes in. I know I’m not scum. But it’s been said, quite accurately, that in order for the town to win we have to have the ability to think like scum. So let’s do that for a minute, shall we?

@random scum

Hi everyone, I’m scum! I want to spread paranoia among the townies and get them at each other’s throats.
…

Yes, scum are going to spread paranoia. They might even do it by going through each one of your posts and pointing out all the scummy behavior you’ve had. They want townies lynched. But you know what, townies might also go through all your posts, and look for scummy behavior you’ve had, because townies want to lynch scum. See the problem with your scenario that anybody who looks for scum tells in your posts is scum?

@Hal Briston

Vote nesta

[color removed]

Honestly, I was tempted to vote for you, all retaliatory like. You see, I did build up a healthy suspicion of you while going through your posts, and I don’t feel a vote for you would be entirely misplaced. I don’t like your reaction to my post, and your assumption that anyone who goes through your posts and points out why you might be scum is worthy of a vote. Yes, that vote was over-defensive.

I’m not going to vote for you yet, though, because hell, I’m still no more sure than I was last night. I think it’s more important I choose someone to vote for between Lightnin’ and CaerieD, since they’ve been near the top of my suspicion list for a lot longer than you.

[tirial]

Can we have an updated vote count?

[Hal_Briston]

@tirial

Can we have an updated vote count?

By my count, I have it as:
3 – Lightnin’ (DiggitCamara, Millit the Frail, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)
3 – SnakesCatLady (Idle Thoughts, CaerieD, Lemur866)
2 – CaerieD (Lightnin’, SnakesCatLady)
1 – nesta (Hal Briston)

[Gadarene]

Updated Vote Count

3 – Lightnin’ (DiggitCamara, Millit the Frail, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)
3 – SnakesCatLady (Idle Thoughts, CaerieD, Lemur866)
2 – CaerieD (Lightnin’, SnakesCatLady)
1 – nesta (Hal Briston)

[SnakesCatLady]

I’m only human, and it is very tempting to change my vote from CaerieD to Lightnin’ to try to avoid being lynched. I’m not going to do it, though, because I want the town to see just how hard Idle Thoughts has worked to lynch a townie - and wonder just why he would do that. Maybe my death will be of benefit to the town.

So, since I am not sure of the time difference between Gadarene and myself, I am going to go ahead and put out my suspect list.

CaerieD, for the reasons I have already listed.
ComeDarkCookies - voted Projammer on Days 2 & 3 and voted for fluiddruid late.
Hal Briston is another who voted for fluiddruid late after voting for townies on Day 2 & 3.
Omi no Kami is suspicious to me because of the record of not voting.
Lightnin’ is another who voted townies - Days 1, 2 & 3, then voted for fluiddruid late.

[Gadarene]

So, since I am not sure of the time difference between Gadarene and myself

Approximately +0 hours.

[nesta]

Right now I think Lightnin’ and CaerieD, my leading suspects, have about equal chances of being scum. Both have played the game in such a way that they’ve practically condemned themselves, and both are partially using that as a defense. They’ve both maxed out my scumometer many times.

I’m going to vote Lightnin’. I really hope he’s scum, because if not, I actually worry he might take the fact that the town didn’t trust him personally.

[Gadarene]

Updated Vote Count

4 – Lightnin’ (DiggitCamara, Millit the Frail, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta)
3 – SnakesCatLady (Idle Thoughts, CaerieD, Lemur866)
2 – CaerieD (Lightnin’, SnakesCatLady)
1 – nesta (Hal Briston)

[Idle_Thoughts]

Guys, I really don’t see why everyone is always on Lightnin’. I just have a bad feeling about it (like I did with Projammer.

[SnakesCatLady]

We need to hear from tirial, BlasterMaster, Rache Qoch and Omi no Kami. I don’t think any of them have said that they would be away, and not voting (IMO) looks really bad… .

[tirial]

I honestly can’t choose between CaerieD and Lightnin’, simply because the voting pattern ties tham closely together.

I am tempted to vote CaerieD as it reveals a lot of other posters’ likely alliances, but I can’t justify lynching a townie for information. Honestly the only thing that might edge Lightnin’ ahead is the Day Three rush vote.

This doesn’t sit well with me. I am actually considering voting No Lynch. I get a Day 2 vibe here - I think we are in a town on town again.

That said it brings me back to my second tier suspects.

[Omi_no_Kami]

I just don’t see scuminess in either of our suspects, really. Lightnin’ never came off as scummy, and CaerieD’s defense seems quite reasonable. I think it’s essential that we don’t get another random vote, so I’ll hedge my bets by

voting Rache Qoch

[Gadarene]

I assume that was supposed to be blue, Omi?

[Idle_Thoughts]

Well, since it’s almost night, here’s my thoughts (just in case I get hit).

FIRST of all…some thoughts.

One of the no-kill nights had to have been a save. Either by the Doc or the Night Watchman. It had to be. BOTH of them could be, yeah, but we don’t know. All we know is, one of them had to be. Now let’s say it was the second night. Doesn’t help us much, plus doesn’t make a whole lot of sense and would be a bit more odds against.

But let’s say it was the first night. Let’s say it was the doctor saved as they tried to hit the Doc.

Well, if they did that (and there’s a 50 percent chance it was that) and found it was blocked, then they’d probably assume they knew who the Doc was and the next night was a recruit.

Yeah, maybe the Night Watchman DID get lucky and I think the mafia would also consider this. But in the end, I think the odds are better that they had thought they found the Doc (since it is much better odds too) and tried recruiting. It was also coming after a day when they just lost one of their own, so I think it makes even more sense.

---

Now, on a completely other tangent…I’m trying to figure who they could have tried killing on the saved night. Let’s think it over.

There are two players that are really strong in this game and experienced. Tirial and I. Both have played in games before and both are just about the highest posters in this thread with really long and in-depth and aggressive like posts.

So it stands to reason (to me, at least) that they’d try to take one of us out. So let’s say they did do this. Let’s say that they tried, the first no-kill night, wacking tirial and found they couldn’t (either because she’s the Doc or because the Night Watchman (her or other) saved her).

It seems reasonable. It seems even likely if you think about it (and are ACTUALLY, REALLY pro-town).

So the second night, just taking a risk/chance, they recruit (and the second night appears as a no-kill) her.

Now, maybe she was the Doc and maybe she isn’t and maybe none of this matters cause it was all just lucky NW anyway, but I think, nay have a strong feeling, that one of those two nights (the second, I feel) was a recruit of the person they tried to waste the night before.

Think about it. The night before, if it was a save (and again, ONE of them WAS, without a doubt, a save), they’d know either that person they tried to go for was the Doc or just happened to be chosen right by the NW. I think they took their chances and tried recruiting.

Because it wasn’t me they recruited…so I tend to think that the only other player that was making a big case (tirial) was captured.

So, first and foremost, I’m suspicious of tirial.

---

However she doesn’t hold my STRONGEST or HIGHEST suspicion. That goes to SnakesCatlady as I said for many reasons and who I’m voting for.

---

Now let’s look back.
I have, in two other posts in here, in the past, said I felt that Blaster Masters friendliness felt a bit too false. I still feel this way, yet DiggitCamara as of late has been really tripping my meter too. These two have rose up on my meter considerabley. Like the case with Rachm Qoch and SCL I said earlier, they BOTH may be scum…but I think that at least ONE of them is for sure (and again, I can only vote one at a time anyway so that point is moot).

I feel a bit stonger about DiggitCamara being one than Blaster Master. But not by much.

And lastly we have Lemur688, who I was suspicious from at the very beginning of the game but who had faded since, but is now popping up again due to, well, a lot of things, mostly that whole thing about INSISTING it would be better for power roles to be killed (at night) rather then anything else. I found this highly odd (and said so at the time a few times to him) and still do. He’s also one of them, as tirial pointed out when I feel she was still pro-town, that asked about the first no-kill and tried to figure out if it was the Doc or some other thing.

So, in the end, what do we have? Well…in case I bite it tonight, we have:

SCL
DiggitCamara (or possibly BM)
Lemur
and tirial*

As people I think are scum.

*recruited
Everyone else I’m still suspicious of and don’t trust entirely, but they’re all below these four and a half players.
Okay. I’m done. Bring on the night. runs and hides

[Lemur866]

@tirial

This doesn’t sit well with me. I am actually considering voting No Lynch. I get a Day 2 vibe here - I think we are in a town on town again.

That said it brings me back to my second tier suspects.

I think we’ve got a problem that people are willing to vote against other players, but aren’t very willing to stick up for them. The reason is obvious, no one wants to stick their neck out for someone who might turn out to be scum. But what you can do is argue against arguments you don’t agree with. So if you see Player A arguing that Player B is scummy for bad reasons, don’t just put Player A on your possible scum list, publicly argue against them and point out why they’re wrong.

If you think the top vote-getters aren’t scummy, tell us why and try to convince the people who voted against them to change their votes. And in general you should vote for the person at the top of your scum list, no matter how few votes they’ve got. The exception is if there are two main candidates, and one is on your lean-scum list and the other isn’t. It might be worth it to forgo voting against a candidate you’re more sure about in order prevent a lynch of a candidate you feel isn’t scum.