Well, what happens if we don’t lynch? The boss has a bigger pool of people to work from, I guess. It seems counter intuitive to kill off one of our own people to keep them from becoming mafia. A bit like burning the village in order to save it. I mean, I get what you guys are saying, that it’s playing into the mob’s hands–it just doesn’t feel right. Plus, how do we decide? Choose at random?
On my personal list for the Day:
–Figure out why the Vigilante might have wanted to kill OAOW…in case that’s what happened.
–Figure out why the Boss might have wanted to kill OAOW…in case that’s what happened.
–Give the bloodthirsty and the lurkers a chance to explain themselves, because I’m not ready to start busting heads yet. And because I’m not sure that’s where we should be looking.
More later–for now, I need a long nap.
The Vig is under no obligation to adhere to a consenus. I would take it as the vig took his best shot at finding a scum, and suggest we do the same.
Santo, I was just jerking around upthread…just playing into the Upper Doperville theme.
In terms of real strategy, might the boss not have offed somebody just on the chance that we might go no lynch again? Our odds at pegging the one mafia member don’t increase that greatly by just having one of us dead. Meanwhile, he has picked one of us off. That being said, I think we should go with a lynch this time, and probably every other time going forward, just so the Godfather doesn’t nickel and dime us to death.
As to who…I’ve got no ideas.
Here are the possibilities for last night, and I am not ruling any of them out:
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The vig killed and the Boss successfully recruited.
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The vig killed and the Boss was unsuccessful in recruiting.
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The Boss killed instead of recruiting.
Reasons why the Boss might kill instead of recruiting, for those who find this action inconcievable:
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It’s almost a sure thing. The only person he would fail to kill would presumably be the Doc.
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We didn’t do much of anything yesterday so he has no feel for who of us has what role. That makes recruitment more of a gamble. There is a greater probability that recruitment will fail then a killing will fail.
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No scum buddy to out him by accident again Today. This was brought up by any number of people Yesterday and surely the Boss took note.
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Scum like to mess with town minds. They frequently don’t do the obvious.
And unless a beat cop saw a making or a kill or the Detective can possitively identify either a recruit or the Boss the majority of us have the same information we had Yesterday: Not much.
If OAOW was killed by the Mafia, I don’t there will be a precise “why.” All the Boss knows at this point is that everyone except for him/herself is Town. Besides, I don’t see how fathoming the motives behind the killing is going to help at this point. There were no real suspicions thrown around, and trying to determine whether someone was killed because they were on the right track or whether it was to throw us off altogether is always a WIFOM riddle at best.
I can think of perhaps one reason why Mafia would rather kill than recruit for the first Night - simply to throw some chaos into the Town. Recruiting seems like such the obvious thing to do that by killing a townie instead, it is almost guaranteed that discussion will get sidetracked musing on all possible scenarios and particularly become focused on why the Vig would do something so risky and generally anti-Town.
A kill on Night 1? Either the Boss or the Vigilante is playing suboptimal. I can’t believe the Boss would take a chance on getting one-shotted longer than he’d need to.
And why would the Vigilante take a potshot this early? I didn’t see any clear reason why Wanderer would be targeted by the Vig. It’s really too early to get a strong feeling on anyone yet. Very strange. Bad, Vig, Bad! (I’m not telling the Vig what to do, merely chastising him for poor play. 
)
We need to lynch ToDay. The reasons I listed [del]YesterDay[/del]PreGame (yes, I’m still bitter about being cheated out of the Day) no longer apply.
- An insta-win is lame. I want to win legitimately. The Boss had her chance to recruit. If she didn’t it’s her own for fault for stupid play.
- A No Lynch costs us nothing. Not lynching now costs us a chance to kill Mafia. While on Day 1, we’d either kill a Townie or end the game, that is no longer the case.
- The only players that have information about anyone but themselves are the Masons. Thus any slip of extra information is going to hurt the Town. The Mafia now have extra information they may accidently reveal, including their voting patterns.
- There’s a 96% chance we’ll lynch a Townie. Why give the Mafia a freebie? We’ve doubled our odds to kill Mafia.
- There’s large chance we’ll focus on a power role and force a claim a Day One. It’s a risk we can avoid. We can no longer avoid this risk.
So we need to lynch ToDay. Unfortunately the clues are scarce; it’s similar to a Day 1 vote in other games. I only have seen one strong tell at this point:
This is the Towniest tell I’ve seen in a long time. Nothing conclusive, of course, but I’ll put a little faith in Hal, for now.
How productive is it to discuss what happened last Night? In previous games, it’s generally been unhelpful. However, given that this is a recruitment game, it’s probably necessary.
While I’m curious to hear Blaster’s reasons for being against No Lynch, I’m also not sure how useful it is to rehash it.
Other than that, I have no leads.
This post got me thinking…I think in this game we need to make out working assumption that a recruit happeded, unless we have evidence that it did not (e.g. the maximum # of possible kills were carried out on a given night). This is opposite of the other games we have played, but I think will keep us safer and saner in the long run.
Also, I will come out and say that I am all for a lynch the lurkers stragegy toDay, but will vote for someone other than a lurker if I see a compelling reason to do so. But it should be noted that lurkers hurt us MUCH more in this game than in in previous games. So, all other things being equal, I think a lynch the lurker strategy is better than random lynching.
I have seen a couple of people mention the blood thirsty individuals from yesterDay as potential lynch targets. Once again I would liketo ask for an explination of your reasoning.
I think it would be usefull in the sense that BlaM didn’t get to say anything yesterDay, while you and I posted a tiny little bit pre-game. I would like to know what BlaM was thinking. It won’t create a basis for a new argument, I think everyone agrees we should lynch toDay, but I would be interested to hear what his thought process was. That is the kind of information that this game will hinge on when it get’s to endgame.
Here’s my analysis of the latest victim’s posting profile.
#87: Voted, before the game had officially started to lynch Pleonast based on Pleo’s advocacy of a no-lynch.
#166: Backed down on the lynching.
#126: Accused sinjin of soliciting advice for scum.
#177: Voted for No-Lynch Advocated strategy for beat cops.
Okay, I’m gonna stop making links. It’s too much work. Just look it up.
#180-181: Talks about difficulties in interpreting the next night’s results
#194: Argues against lynching claimed power roles
#203: General strategy
#228: Favors quick end to day
#227: During night, prophecies own death
And that’s it.
My best guess: Killed by the Vigilante, most likely by random chance, but also possibly because the flip-flop from the pre-day lynch vote to the official No-Lynch vote seemed opportunistic and scummy.
Huh?
Can we not do this? This is what got a shorten day. The majority of the town hasn’t posted their opinion yet. Lets not assume they agree with the relatively few that have.
Ooh boy, the game is afoot. Feel a bit clueless and scared now. My gut feel is that the recruitment went through, but I’m not sure of why or who we should suspect. Oh, and mucho apologies to everyone who was upset by the end of the day. Didn’t mean to cut anybody off from having their say, meself.
The vig would take a pot shot early, because there is no benefit to waiting around. In fact there is a strong incentive not to wait. The vig isn’t going to have any more reliable information on future days than he did day one. I’m all for the Vig taking his best shot at taking out the godfather each day.
:dubious:
Ok, let me rephrase.
It’s fucking stupid to continue to no lynch.
Honestly, it get’s us nowhere. If the majority of the town doesn’t agree with this then the majority of the town isn’t actually interested in playing the game.
I assume that the town is reasonable and reasonably smart. Continuing to no lynch at this stage is dumb.
Hey, I thought no lynch was stupid yesterday. I don’t disagree with you. I just want to give everyone the chance to have their say.
I think that came off a little bit harsher then I meant it to. Sorry Hawkman. I am not used to surviving much longer then Night 1 and I still have a lot of pent up Day 1 stick poking to get out of my system, what with missing the Day and all.
Been forgetting something this whole time…the first person the Boss recruits becomes the Hitman, yes? And as such, if the Boss recruited yesterday, we can see as many as 3 kills now. Hmm. At this point only the Vig and Boss would really know what happened yesterday, and neither one of them will tell us I bet.
Oh, and Pleo, you switched to her and she for the boss there. Extra knowledge? 
go town!
I don’t believe that the hitman gets an extra kill. They just ensure a scum kill is successful.