I agree completely with this, right here. Right now, we have 1-2 scum, and a whole lot of townies. If we randomly vote for one person, what kind of good information do we get? Just whatever role the random result was? What we need here is to watch peoples actions, and observe; sudden changes of attitude can help to indicate a recruitment. Discussion will also give more opportunity for scum to tell us what they are.
And although we should be trying to find Mafia from here on out, we should expect to have many mislynches. That’s acceptable, as long as what players say and how they vote leads to correct lynches. That’s why random voting is bad–it takes away any responsibility for votes and thus allows Mafia to hide that much more easily.
One and Only Wanderers was #7 on the list, between dotchan and Idle Thoughts.
Well, Rugger did say “an inexperienced scum”.
Go ahead and say it…if scum did the kill, scum were idiots. I can see a compelling case being made for a vig kill but not for the scum doing the kill.
An interesting hypothesis, but I think it’s more likely that the killer chose random, or went with a gut reaction. The latter might as well be random for all the insight it gives us outsiders.
(FTR, for us townies I think choosing a random victim is a very bad plan)
I gotta admit, I don’t really suspect anyone. My instincts still suspect the more bloodthirsty, but I admit that reasoning’s weak as all hell. But in the absence of anything better to move on…
And to dotchan: Maybe I’ve just been reading too many detective novels, but I think getting into the scums’ heads is very helpful to the town. I’ll continue to give this kind of analysis unless everyone else thinks its unhelpful.
Why do you distrust the bloodthirsty? The fact that someone died last night means that either the Godfather is taking advantage of our laxness in lynching to whittle away at our numbers, or that we’ve got a kill-happy Vig, who doesn’t agree with the no-lynch concept. If the latter’s the case, we’ve got two mafioso, plus more bodies likely to pile up. If we don’t begin lynching, these bodies are going to keep piling up with no accountability.
As far as random victim picking… well, we don’t have much more to go on. Pretty much everyone -is- innocent right now. Scum-tells are going to be even more useless in this game than normal.
So I’m just gonna
vote: Menocchio
I know, I don’t have much in the way of reasoning. That’s just how I roll.
First impression on reading this post was that Pleonast was recruited and the Godfather is female. “The Boss had her chance to recruit. If she didn’t it’s her own for fault for stupid play.” Ping Ping Ping Piiiiiing!
I went ahead and read the rest of what has been posted to now, and Koldanar raised this point as well. Pleonast stepped over the question.
This is enough for me to move my meter in favor of a lynch today.
Vote Pleonast
ok, I am with you on the “in absense of anything better” bit. But, even if the reasoning is weak, would you mind explaining what the reasoning is? Give us something.
It is a good idea to try and get into the scums heads, but right now you aren’t sharing enough. You may think you are, but you aren’t. That’s probably why Dio voted for you. But I don’t want to speak for him so…
**
YO DIO! ** I know you don’t like giving reasons for things, and I don’t want to slow your roll or nothin’ but…wtf? Why you vote Mennochio?
I’ll try to keep this brief without the amount of effort I would have put into itotherwise simply because it’s not really relevant anymore. I do not want to side-track this Day more than necessary about hind-sight. Bottom line, I see lynching as the default because it provides information and provides a chance to hit scum (even if it is small). We HAVE to remember how the mechanics of this game work: Scum have an informational advantage, town has a numerical advantage. The idea is to leveral your advantage to diminish the other side’s advantage. In this way, the lynch is the town’s most powerful tool, and giving it up without a DAMN good reason, is generally to the town’s detriment.
Here’s what happened yesterday, in a nut shell: “Hey everyone, let’s not lynch” “/Agree” “…”. There was very little discussion, no information gained, no risk of the Boss outting himself or giving clues, very little read on other players to be able to allow us to see one pattern before they may have been recruited to detect changes.
By stifling the discussion of lynching, and not at least considering, having people put forth arguments and such, we don’t get any read on people’s motivations. And we’re essentially down one Day, except the mob is most likely one person stronger, we’re down two (one death, and the recruit) and we have almost no information to show for it. Yes, we DO have the information gained at Night by investigative roles, but we’d have gotten that anyway, without a lynch.
However, by NOT having that discussion, we lost potentially valuable leads for the town power roles. Perhaps someone made a suspicious or unsubstantiated vote, it may have allowed a power role to either find the Boss or be able to help back that person up if they fall under suspicion the next Day.
Sure, we COULD have put a power role up and made them come out, but that could happen ANY day. It’s no different if it had happened Yesterday or Today, but it’s not the dire situation that it was made out to be either. We DO have people out there that can protect our power roles. If, for instance, a detective was revealed, he probably would have been revealed Today (particularly since he’d have additional information to hide), with a random investigation that would either be (so-and-so is town, or couldn’t reveal because it was a power role), but he could also have potentially be protected from recruitment, forcing the Boss into a WIFOM situation of whether to attempt a valuable recruit that is likely to fail, or recruit someone else with a lower chance of them being a valuable role.
We have to remember, that leveraging our advantage means that, particularly early in the game, losing a pro-town player is of relatively little consequence provided we gain information greater than or equal to that loss. So previously, our numerical advantage was (n-1):1. It is now (n-3):2. Had we lynched, it would only be slightly less (n-4):2, but we’d have had a potential to gain some useful information. We’re going to lose people everyday whether we gain information or not (barring a successful protection), so we need to maximize our information gain compared to our numerical loss.
Now, that’s not to say that a no-lynch is always a bad idea. There are situations where the information gain is not worth the numerical loss, particularly in a LyLo situation, when a no-lynch will likely still leave us in a LyLo situation the next day. But the first Day is the day a bad lynch hurts us least (because our advantage is at it’s peak) while providing a basis of information for the remainder of the game.
All of that said, though I’m disappointed in the no-lynch decision yesterday, I am not explicitly suspicious of anyone for supporting it. Given the discussion, and lack of a counter-argument, it is impossible to distinguish between a townie motivated by believing he’s doing what’s best for the town, and the Boss motivated by self-preservation. Thus, I’m going to try to catch up and see if I have any other observations to add… that may or may not be tonight.
You know, that feminine pronoun thing *is *suspicious. His/Her seems more natural, as is defaulting to the male (damn patriarchy!) I’m also going back and seeing how Pleo led the charge for a No-Lynch Day 1, and the weird “Townie Tell” statement. I still think that the no-lynch was the right move, but Pleo moved fast to get into the cuddly non-violent Town roll (see below why doing so would be helpful for a scum). Nothing conclusive just yet, but for the time being I will Vote Pleonast
NAF, my bias against the bloodthirsty is simply that… They’re bloodthirsty. It seems that a scum getting “in character” would be more likely to play aggressively and try to wipe out as many town as they could as fast as they could. Like I said, it was never a very strong line of reasoning.
My reasoning on OAOW is thus:
I agree that recruitment is the mafia’s strongest move on Night 1, so the Vig did it. I see little reason to believe that OAOW is scum, so the Vig chose a target at random.
NETA: One point I forgot. I REALLY didn’t understand the “insta-win” is lame discussion. If we catch the Boss on Day One, how is that lame? The point of the game is to CATCH the bad guys, no? If he screws up, or we can force him into a corner and do something rash… isn’t that what we do any other day?
How is doing it on Day One somehow illegitimate? Is it MORE legitimate when a detective happens upon scum by chance? Is it more legitimate when we catch onto a “slip”, which IME has shown to be pretty much a null tell? The only thing that makes a win illegitimate is when information is obtained in a way that is outside of the mechanics of the game.
I’ll have to give this argument some thought and see if I can’t determine the motivation behind it. It does cursorily appear to have an anti-town motivation, but I’ll have to go back and take it in context.
Come on, NAF… didn’t I specifically ask for my roll not to be slowed?
I voted Menocchio because I have mild disagreements with his reasoning, as I have a general trust for the bloodthirsty in the early parts of these games. Being bloodthirsty tends to be a sign that you’re not holding much back.
In most cases, I would qualify a vote like this by saying that I’m willing to change my vote for better reasoning, but I’m not looking for scum-tells right now. Honestly, I don’t trust scum-vibes… although I would be in favor of switching my vote to a lurker, if the town decided to get rid of our quieter members. Other than that…
yeesh… I just typed that I think we need to start culling members of the town in order to reduce hiding spots for scum. it doesn’t make much sense to me. But neither does no-lynching again. And neither does looking for fake scumtells. Random luck seems to be as good a strategy as any of the aforementioned ones, however. So I’ll stick with Menocchio for now.
Of course, Pleonast also said this in the same post…
Paranoid thought: Maybe the use of “she” is intentional, so that we think that the Boss can’t be a male player…?
Still, my suspicions of Menocchio hasn’t deminished, so vote Menocchio, with a stronger FoS on Pleonast on the side.
My personal reasoning was simple.
If we’d have caught the Godfather on Night 1, then I’d have felt let down. Quite a bit of buildup and poof it’s over. I’d be left thinking “what was the point of that?”
I didn’t want that so I voted No Lynch.
I’m usually willing to consider No Lynch as an option; it works best when by doing so we buy another Day. I don’t think Today is a good day for mercy though, so let’s get scum-huntin’.
The use of “she” by Pleonast also set off my scumdar. However, I’m not quite ready to vote in that direction. I still want to see what else comes up.
The randomization thing was just an idea…It just doesn’t seem likely that we’ll actually find someone looking scummy today. Considering there’s only one or two scum, it’ll be so easy for them to blend in…
Pleo’s use of “her” for the Godfather did ping my radar, but I thought maybe it was a proto feminist thing? It’s the only thing making me think bad thoughts at the moment, though…
Something to go on is better than nothing. Right now it’s a lead and I’m calling him on it.
I feel like that “slip” is way too hard to make accidentally. But I don’t know why Pleonast, if an innocent, would have used that pronoun intentionally. Hmm.
As far as my trying to work out motivations, I think it’s at least mildly important to try to figure out who killed OAOW. After all, that could give us some insight into whether there are one or two Mafia at this point. Then again, we aren’t looking to out the Vig, even if he/she isn’t that bright. We could certainly use the Vig at some point.
I wasn’t trying to say I was suspicious of lurkers or the bloodthirsty–in fact, quite the opposite. I’m wasn’t ready to start calling for their heads yet, as it seemed like some were. The lurkers need a chance to come out and say something. And I’m actually more inclined to trust those who are bloodthirsty today, whereas I have slight suspicions toward those who were bloodthirsty yesterday. (Very slight, but still.)
Anyway, I’m in favor of a lynch today. It’s the only way we’re going to get some productive discussion. But let’s not let any early scuffles get us all sidetracked. My last game saw the Mafia sit back and let about a third of the townies off each other right away, all of whom were caught up in one big continuous mess. I think that, in a game like this, the Mafia will be trying a similar tactic. Anyone who’s too nice or too calm or too avoidant of the FoS is going on my FoS list.
A lot of people use “she” as the default pronoun nowadays, the rational being that “he” has been used as the default for so long that “she” deserves a turn now (barring the invention of a gender neutral singular pronoun). I didn’t find it odd at all, but I’m used to that kind of stuff since I took a lot of femminist literature classes. YMMV, I suppose.