NETA: That last part of the first quote should be “…so I can clearly not choose the cup in from of you.”
I just don’t see how this information benefits us. If there’s only one other mason, then sure, he should say so and they should confirm eachother. Otherwise, especially knowing that the Vig is inactive and we’ll only lose one person per Day/Night cycle, there will be at least two tomorrow and they can confirm eachother then.
[quote=NAF1138The recruitment falir rate is a macguffin. Their best asset in this game is the same as it is in every game, they can confirm each other. IF they do claim it is less likely that any attempt to recruit them will be made, but really this is a good thing. Smaller pool for the scum to hide in.
There is always the chance that one of them has been recruited already, but by keeping them hiden we only increase that chance over the time period where they can accidentally be attempted to be recruited and not fail. A recruited mason is more dangerous than a nonrecruited one is valuable. I would argue that keeping them hidden ups the likleyhood that one WILL get recruited.[/quote]
But what good is them confirming eachother if we don’t know if they’re scum or not? All it really means is that we know they’re not the Boss, but beyond that it doesn’t tell us for sure if they’re trustworthy or not. Knowing they’re not the Boss is only useful IF we’re suspicious of them and the Boss is not yet dead, that means we should probably not lynch them.
But, as for decreasing their recruitment… let’s analyze. An outted mason, if attempted, will have a 50% success rate. An un-outted mason will be recruited at a lower success rate of *M / [2 (N - S)] which is upper bounded 50% because |M| is a subset of |N - S|. Further, by having them in the unconfirmed pool, sure they COULD be recruited, but it also increases the failure rate of a random recruitment attempt which may persuade scum to attempt a kill over a recruitment which is more likely to succeed but not as harmful to the town.
NETA: BAH! I fail at closing my quote tag!
Ok. Here goes.
Out of the three people who looked likely to be lynched, I thought NAF was the most townie. Though brutal, his “lynch daily, vig nightly” plan has a not bad chance of getting scum early on, and will, as he said, narrow the pool down where scum can hide and recruit from.
I flat out didn’t get the OneCentStamp wagon. I think it was started by HNC, doubled up on by MtF, and Chrisk, and Pleo without any reasoning as to scumitude, just maybe-kinda lurking.
Dotchan Mk. 1 - The best case out of any that Day. But that isn’t saying much. She had a flurry of posting on pages 16 and 17. And no posting / defense until after the lynch on page 22. She didn’t ping scumdar, but she was the least townie.
My post nightfall comments were just repeating what people had said about it being a charlie foxtrot of a day. Had dcmk1 been scum, it would have been a Dunkirk level disaster. Pretty sucky overall, but we didn’t totally screw the pooch. As it was, it was on the level of Stalingrad. Either way, bad play.
Psst! Post 370!
(With video!)
And I really should be finishing up my school work before spring break - should be back to full speed by Monday at the latest, with intermittent play before then.
I will sum up the snipped part by saying I disagree and we can leave it at that. But the above is interesting and something I hadn’t considered.
Anyway, I think I have said all I can say about the claming thing and won’t press it any further.
NETA: Actually, I disagre on the non math portion, and don’t really follow the math. I like that you post it, BlaM, but I don’t pretend to be able to follow it.
I think the masons should not mass claim at this time. When there are only two left however, they should claim and confirm each other. Anyone claiming mason in the meantime should be believed unless there is a counter-claim. If someone does lie about being a mason, a true mason should speak up immediately. That’s my two cents worth.
Right now I’m painstakingly going through Day 2’s posts and drawing up an outline. Mostly for my own benefit, but I will post the results once I finish. But for the moment I’m going to
vote Darth Sensitive
because, as I stated above, I believe the pre-mature despair comment WAS indeed a scum “slip” (as opposed to all those “outright scummy statements” we’ve all been getting our panties in a twist over). Also, I just explained my reasoning for voting for OCS and Darth has summed it up thusly:
You want to disagree with my reasoning, be my guest - but insinuating that I had no reasoning at all is what I consider a “smudge.” Smudges = scummy in my book.
Masons are recuritable Hockey. That sort of strategy won’t work in this game.
Trying to catch up.
I think the Masons should not reveal their number. Knowing their number actually makes it easier to fake claim.
Instead, Masons should claim when they are under lynch threat. An already-claimed Mason can then confirm or not. When there’s just one unclaimed Mason, that Mason can reveal.
Another reason they should not claim unless they need to: it is useful to try to recruit a claimed Mason. Recruiting an unclaimed player risks hitting an unrecruitable. But a Mason has a 50% chance to be recruited. You may think that’s not good, but then when they have a Mason the Boss gets: 1) knowledge of all the other Masons, and 2) a 100% chance of recruiting one of them.
That makes claimed Masons as trustable as any other recruitable role.
Hmm, on second thought, it may be better for the Masons to all claim. Imagine this scenario: the claimed Mason gets recruited (Capo’d). They then recruit another Mason. The Mafia will then have 2 out of N Masons. This sets up a great opportunity for either 1) false claims, 2) refused confirmations.
Got to think more on it.
Re The Masons: I now feel that they should remain hidden until they need to prevent their own lynching (unless there’s only one more, then they should claim). They shouldn’t be very reluctant to out themselves in that case though. F’rex, if Darth Sensitive were a mason, he should consider claiming right now.
As for Darth Sensitive, I’m not feeling it. Did anyone really believe that dotchan was scum? She was the best choice presented and I can’t fault him for voting that way and still feeling pessimistic about the day.
So for the moment I’m voting NAF1138. He and Blaster Master are by far the shining stars in this game and that makes me suspicious. With myself and Drain exposed they had a great chance to grab either of them last night. Why start with NAF and not Blaster? I’m not sure. It’s just a gut thing.
Hello all. I’ve been keeping up and trying to get a grip on everything that’s happened that last couple of Days (I’m not spending too much time on Day 1, understandably). I see that there has been a little bit of suspicion on Darth Sensitive for his Twilight post. It does seem like ‘extra knowledge’ but at the same time, I was having the same thoughts as I watched the Day end, ‘What a fucked up Day’. But I got to thinking, lynching Vanilla Townies is not necessarily a bad thing at this point. Scum are relatively rare, still. Power roles are going to universally claim when they’re on the line. And all that’s left for Town to lynch is Vanilla Townies.
From my count, (assuming estimates for some roles) and starting with 24 players we began the game with:
1 Detective
1 Doctor
1 Vig (now Priest)
3 Masons (assumption)
2 Priests (assumption)
1 Bishop
2 Beat Cops (assumption)
1 Police Chief
1 Boss
That’s 13 Defined roles leaving 11 Vanilla Townies. We’re down 3 Townspeople and 1 Vig (no net loss of Priest after chrisk’s death).
Assuming recruitment attempts on Nights 2 and 3 (worse case scenario both successful), we now have 12 Defined roles and 8 Townies with 3 scum mixed amongst them.
(Please note, my assumptions on role numbers is my own gut feeling only and not based on any facts).
Next topic: my take on the Mason role claim is that it is not a good idea. The Mason know the identities of their fellow Masons but as far as I can tell from the rules, they would NOT know if one of their brethren has been recruited (successfully or not). The normal value of Masons is their ability to mutually confirm each other, but with this game, that value is gone.
I think the Masons should claim now, while the maximum percentage are still on our side. Otherwise, as Pleo and NAF are saying, it sets up way too many possibilities for false claims later.
Really? Why?
No, that is exactly WHY they need to claim and claim now. They are useless to us at best and much more dangerous at worst if we don’t know who we are.
As far as the Masons mass-claiming goes, I’m not keen to see them rush out and claim, because once made a claim cannot really be withdrawn. It’s a minor Rubicon.
Whether the claim is made right now or Tuesday morning may not make much difference as far as the game goes - so Masons, take your time. There’s no great hurry, really. Unless the vote pressure builds up, of course.
Drain Bead, I’m confused. Idol investigated hotflungwok Night 1. Yesterday you said you investigated someone Night 2 who turned up town but didn’t tell us who you investigated. In post 1128 after being asked for full disclosure you indicate you investigated Koldanar who turned up town and btw avoided recruitment. But then in 1171 you said you were surprised that Koldanar was returned as the Vig.
This is not full disclosure, which you promised us yesterDay in order to stay alive. You have given us the results for only two Nights. Also was a recruitment attempt made on you and rebuffed or are you just reassuring us that you are still on our side? Clarification please.
Note to all on the mason front. I’m not going to come out with numbers for awhile. I need to think about this. Also I will be traveling most of the day tomorrow and again on Monday. But will be around on the weekend and on Tuesday AM.
I was just re-reading through Yesterday and came across this post by Santo Rugger
This was during the flurry of Role Claims. It certainly made me raise my eyebrows, but it seems to have gone unchallenged by the group. It can be read two ways. One, it could be an innocent expression of frustration during a particularly tough point in the game. Or it could be a calculated response meant to throw off any suspicion he garners later in the game. FOS on Rugger for this throw away post.
I didn’t say I was surprised that Koldanar came back as the Vig, I said I was confused (after his roleclaim, obviously), and then I re-read my role description. You can read it too, including the final parenthetical, and hopefully see from whence my confusion came. I can confirm that I got a Vig result on Koldanar, though.
I am keeping the results of my first investigation (MY first investigation, not Idle’s) silent because I think full disclosure on that point will harm us more than help us. I’d go into more detail but I would only be helping the scum.
As far as whether a recruitment attempt was made, I think the rules state that I wouldn’t know it. I’m not sure what happened in the massive WIFOM game that I’m certain took place between the scum and our protective power roles. If someone was protecting me, thanks much. If not, the scum didn’t go my way.
Speaking of the scum not going my way, I completely agree with Menocchio’s point about how NAF and BlaM were prime targets for recruitment last night. I just disagree with which one. I think BlaM would have been a great target–he’s built up a lot of townie cred and can confuse the crap out of people with math if he chooses to.