[QUOTE=Hawkeyeop]
Sinjin is a mason. However, I could see scenarios where either Pleo or Drain Bead are the boss.
[/QUOTE]
If either of them are the boss, kudos to them for taking such a big risk that the town bought. Doubt it.
That still leaves 13 people, though… maybe we’re not quite ready for that method.
So what, we’re just going to continue to randomly lynch the innocent or wait for the Boss to accidently sign one of his posts ‘the Boss’. And there is a possibility that Blaster is the Boss and has been mis-identified as the consiglier.
Also, if Drain was trying to fool us into wasting two days killing an innocent Blaster and then her, why wouldn’t she say Blaster was the Boss? That would have been way more effective and achieved her nefarious purpose more easily.
[QUOTE=Hawkeyeop]
Sinjin is a mason. However, I could see scenarios where either Pleo or Drain Bead are the boss.
[/QUOTE]
If I am the Boss, why hasn’t the real Detective counter-claimed me by now?
Also, remember that I have one piece of info I’m not telling yet. I am hoping the person I investigated claims and I can confirm, because I would hate to take that away from them. However, that person needs to know that I will come clean with that by the end of toDay, but only with the name of the person I investigated. I will leave it to that person to supply the role.
[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
I think we’re far enough along to start a process of elimination. The following list does not eliminate people from scum consideration, only boss consideration:
Millit the Frail
Hockey Monkey
bufftabby
USCDiver [sub for Diomedes]
Drain Bead [sub for Idle Thoughts] Detective
MHaye
Menocchio
Santo Rugger
Pleonast Priest
Koldanar
Blaster Master Scum, not boss.
Hawkeyeop
HazelNutCoffee
Hotflungwok
Darth Sensitive
OneCentStamp
dotchan [sub for Freudian Slit after dying on Day 3]
sinjin
Hal Briston Priest by Bishop
What am I missing?
[/QUOTE]
You’re missing my Vig then Priest claims.
Also, unvote Blaster Master. Smell of blood got to me. I’m still damn sure you are scum now, but not being the boss (or a small chance at least…1/4) I’d rather search for them and leave you for now. Wish I were still a vig.
One of the investigators said I was town earlier.
Drain could also be sacrificing a scum BlaM. Drain, can you recap your investigation results to date so I can cross some more people off the list.
Also, a rhetorical question, concerning the 5% chance… if I said there was a 5% chance I was going to give you $100, and a 95% chance I was going to punch you in the face, would you agree to the deal?
[QUOTE=hotflungwok]
One of the investigators said I was town earlier.
[/QUOTE]
Which means nothing, as I could have been wrong on my investigation and you could be the Boss, or have been recruited by now.
[QUOTE=Drain Bead]
If I am the Boss, why hasn’t the real Detective counter-claimed me by now?
[/QUOTE]
That is easy. You recruited the detective. Unlikely, but not inconceivable.
Also, even if you are telling the truth, the odds of Blaster being the boss are significantly less than a randomly selected unknown person being the boss. Plus, I don’t think Blaster would go with such an unlogical ploy night one.
[QUOTE=Drain Bead]
However, that person needs to know that I will come clean with that by the end of toDay, but only with the name of the person I investigated. I will leave it to that person to supply the role.
[/QUOTE]
I’m really curious about this. I hope this has been worth it, but I have a feeling that not everyone is going to agree with your logic on this.
Okay, how’s this look:
Millit the Frail
Hockey Monkey
bufftabby
USCDiver [sub for Diomedes]
MHaye
Santo Rugger
Hawkeyeop
HazelNutCoffee
Darth Sensitive
OneCentStamp
dotchan [sub for Freudian Slit after dying on Day 3]
[QUOTE=Drain Bead]
Which means nothing, as I could have been wrong on my investigation and you could be the Boss, or have been recruited by now.
[/QUOTE]
Well, if I was recruited, I wouldn’t be the boss. Was I investigated once or twice?
[QUOTE=Drain Bead]
<snip> or have been recruited by now.
[/QUOTE]
Which means nothing to us right now… we don’t give a shit who’s been recruited, hence the (hopeful) non lynch of BlaM today.
[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
Drain could also be sacrificing a scum BlaM. Drain, can you recap your investigation results to date so I can cross some more people off the list.
Also, a rhetorical question, concerning the 5% chance… if I said there was a 5% chance I was going to give you $100, and a 95% chance I was going to punch you in the face, would you agree to the deal?
[/QUOTE]
Idle’s investigation showed hotflungwok as town. I am starting to disbelieve that he still is, if he ever was.
My first investigation is still a secret, for now. I WILL come out with it by the end of toDay, but I want to give the investigatee first dibs.
My second investigation showed Koldanar to be the Vigilante. Sadly, he killed a priest and is now a priest instead.
Last night’s investigation was the one on BlaM, showing him as a Consigliere.
[QUOTE=Drain Bead]
<snip>
Also, remember that I have one piece of info I’m not telling yet. I am hoping the person I investigated claims and I can confirm, because I would hate to take that away from them. However, that person needs to know that I will come clean with that by the end of toDay, but only with the name of the person I investigated. I will leave it to that person to supply the role.
[/QUOTE]
Depending on the role, it may be better to not let it be known… good idea, though.
Also, I’m still a bit miffed you didn’t give us the name when we could be more sure that you were still town.
*sheepishly adds *hotwok ** back to the list
[QUOTE=Drain Bead]
Remember, there is still a chance, albeit a small one, that BlaM is the mis-identified Boss. As such, any plan that involves weeding out other people to find the Boss could potentially be highly anti-town. If we get rid of a Consigliere, we break even for the Day (well, a little ahead of break even, given the 5% chance that each Consigliere gives of outing a random town role to the Mafia). If we focus our efforts elsewhere, we keep at least a Consigliere alive and could end up lynching town instead.
Also, Santo Rugger, you’re missing Menocchio as claimed Doctor.
[/QUOTE]
Yeah, this makes a lot of sense. :rolleyes: How does lynching me put us a little ahead of breaking even? Even if you WERE telling the truth, the scum already know where three unrecruitables are (Pleo, Hal, and Kold) and at least one Mason is. In the rest are probably two Masons and maybe one more Priest. The probability that they’ll successfully recruit tonight is quite high. Further, with that in mind, how is the 5% chance really even relevant with all of the important roles already revealed. It’s 5% of a RANDOM role, which means the chances that it would reveal one of those few remaining important roles is further divided by the remaining players in that pool. It’s such a small chance as to be irrelevant
Of course, considering that you are lying scum, this puts you in an even better situation. Chances are you either know my role outright from an investigation before you were recruited, or you simply know I’m a power role and figure I’d be a good person to get out of the way.
How a supposed pro-town player could POSSIBLY think this is a good idea is completely beyond me.
[QUOTE=Drain Bead]
Idle’s investigation showed hotflungwok as town. I am starting to disbelieve that he still is, if he ever was.
My first investigation is still a secret, for now. I WILL come out with it by the end of toDay, but I want to give the investigatee first dibs.
My second investigation showed Koldanar to be the Vigilante. Sadly, he killed a priest and is now a priest instead.
Last night’s investigation was the one on BlaM, showing him as a Consigliere.
[/QUOTE]
Ugh! This whole post looks manufactured. How the hell is the investigatee going to know that they should claim? Sounds like role fishing to me.
**BlaM **could be a set up, in multiple ways, and you’ve gained at least hotwok’s trust by saying they’re town, and we already know about Koldar.
We still need to lynch Drain before we believe anything she’s said, IMHO.
[QUOTE=Drain Bead]
If I am the Boss, why hasn’t the real Detective counter-claimed me by now?
Also, remember that I have one piece of info I’m not telling yet. I am hoping the person I investigated claims and I can confirm, because I would hate to take that away from them. However, that person needs to know that I will come clean with that by the end of toDay, but only with the name of the person I investigated. I will leave it to that person to supply the role.
[/QUOTE]
Oh my, and THIS, my friends is what we call fishing for power roles. Maybe you were recruited longer ago than I thought. Hey, let’s just ask ALL the remaining power roles to claim, and then I can pretend to confirm one so that I can gain some small amount of credibility while giving the scum perfect information. WONDERFUL IDEA! :dubious:
[QUOTE=Hawkeyeop]
Plus, I don’t think Blaster would go with such an unlogical ploy night one.
[/QUOTE]
Except that such an illogical ploy shifts all suspicion away from experienced players and onto newbs. Which an experienced player would know. My theory yesterday was that NAF was the mastermind behind that plan (obviously I was wrong), but any experienced player could’ve created that plan. BlasterMaster definitely could have. Even if that’s not the case, I’d rather hit non-Boss scum than yet another Townie. However, if someone comes up with a compelling case that someone else is the Boss, I would consider changing my vote.
[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
Yeah, this makes a lot of sense. :rolleyes: How does lynching me put us a little ahead of breaking even? Even if you WERE telling the truth, the scum already know where three unrecruitables are (Pleo, Hal, and Kold) and at least one Mason is. In the rest are probably two Masons and maybe one more Priest. The probability that they’ll successfully recruit tonight is quite high. Further, with that in mind, how is the 5% chance really even relevant with all of the important roles already revealed. It’s 5% of a RANDOM role, which means the chances that it would reveal one of those few remaining important roles is further divided by the remaining players in that pool. It’s such a small chance as to be irrelevant
Of course, considering that you are lying scum, this puts you in an even better situation. Chances are you either know my role outright from an investigation before you were recruited, or you simply know I’m a power role and figure I’d be a good person to get out of the way.
How a supposed pro-town player could POSSIBLY think this is a good idea is completely beyond me.
[/QUOTE]
There’s also the intangible of having an experienced player on the scum team that we need to take into consideration. I’m not sure how much weight to give it, but I know I don’t want the scum to have you any longer.
…and if I investigated you BEFORE I was recruited, don’t you think I would say that? I sure didn’t. Here–I’ll give the nugget and see how it plays out. Night two, I investigated Pleonast. It’s now up to him to say what role I got.
[QUOTE=bufftabby]
Except that such an illogical ploy shifts all suspicion away from experienced players and onto newbs. Which an experienced player would know. My theory yesterday was that NAF was the mastermind behind that plan (obviously I was wrong), but any experienced player could’ve created that plan. BlasterMaster definitely could have. Even if that’s not the case, I’d rather hit non-Boss scum than yet another Townie. However, if someone comes up with a compelling case that someone else is the Boss, I would consider changing my vote.
[/QUOTE]
Oh, for the love of God, you’re talking yourself in logical circles. You have to remember that Night actions, particularly kills, are chosen for specific reasons, and that’s often because they can often predict with a fair bit of accuracy how kills will be taken. Imagine this scenario: Player X suspects Player Y, that Night, Player X is killed and comes up town. Was Player X right and the scum killed him to silence him? Or, was Player X wrong, and they killed him to make it look like they were silencing him? It’s impossible to tell, so using it as evidence to support either conclusion is specious logic at best.
The scenario with the kill on the first Night is the same thing. Is the Boss inexperienced, so he thought a kill would be a good idea? Is the Boss experienced, so he thought a kill would mislead people to think he was inexperienced? There’s no way to assign any sort of probabilities to either of those scenarios more than just a straight up guess, so there’s precisely ZERO information that can be gained from pondering it.