More improbable, in my mind. Not improbably. Sorry, mistakes like that really bug me. :: twitches hand over Edit button :::
[QUOTE=Pleonast]
Drain, do you see why it is better that you simply say what you investigated me as? At this point, that is the better course to take.
Anyway, I’m going to vote for who I think is the boss:
[COLORBlue]Vote Darth Sensitive[/COLOR]
[/QUOTE]
I think that’s a good idea.
[COLORBlue]Vote Darth Sensitive[/COLOR]
[QUOTE=Pleonast]
Anyway, I’m going to vote for who I think is the boss:
Vote Darth Sensitive
[/QUOTE]
You know what? Just by re-reading toDay’s posts, I’ve become convinced.
I still am learning towards Blaster as scum - actually, that’s what has convinced me of Darth’s being the Boss. And I still am going to post my case against Darth Sensitive . . . but my suspicions have become strong enough for me to switch my vote (which, I repeat, I will justify in a later post). My vote for Blaster was because I felt lynching scum was better than stabbing in the dark . . . but hopefully some light has been shed toDay.
Gah, I’m too flustered by toDay’s happenings to speak coherently right now. I’ll post a more coherent argument later, but I want to change my vote first while it’s still early in the Day.
unvote Blaster Master
vote Darth Sensitive
Ugh.
Vote Darth Sensitive
Huh? I didn’t get the voting for Darth yesterday and I still don’t get it today. How did we go from lynching Blaster to listening to him?
[QUOTE=Hawkeyeop]
Huh? I didn’t get the voting for Darth yesterday and I still don’t get it today. How did we go from lynching Blaster to listening to him?
[/QUOTE]
Is Blaster advocating voting for Darth?
Vote for who you think is the Boss. Save other scum for later. I believe Blaster been recruited and I believe Drain has not been recruited yet. That doesn’t mean everything he says is wrong (I play the most pro-Town when I am scum).
Hawkeyeop - how are we “listening” to Blaster?
[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
Now, running on the second one, two people come to mind, Millit the Frail for her high level of unnecessary defensiveness and Darth Sensitive. If I’m correct in her desperation, then I wouldn’t be surprised if one of those two is the Boss. Now, I realize that Darth Sensitive was nearly lynched yesterday, but in consideration, I’d have also expected him to garner less suspicion Today because of his good defense and the fact that the supposed slip was the only evidence against him. Millit, OTOH, was gaining suspicion, and I think the reason she didn’t garner more votes was simply because the Day was coming to a close.
[/QUOTE]
I feel like this post is a subtle push away from Darth and towards Millit. FWIW.
Drain Bead, out of curiosity, did you investigate BlaM randomly or because of some concrete suspicion last Night?
On a side note, it’s very difficult to type with a cigarette in one hand.
[QUOTE=Pleonast]
Drain, do you see why it is better that you simply say what you investigated me as? At this point, that is the better course to take.
[/QUOTE]
The only way you have anything to lose now is if you’re the Boss and you guess wrong. The scum already know you can be recruited. Any reason you had for remaining silent is gone.
[QUOTE=HazelNutCoffee]
Hawkeyeop - how are we “listening” to Blaster?
I feel like this post is a subtle push away from Darth and towards Millit. FWIW.
Drain Bead, out of curiosity, did you investigate BlaM randomly or because of some concrete suspicion last Night?
On a side note, it’s very difficult to type with a cigarette in one hand.
[/QUOTE]
He was still arguing that Darth was more likely to be the boss than anyone else except Milli. I don’t think I like those two suspects. I’ll try to come up with another.
[QUOTE=Drain Bead]
The only way you have anything to lose now is if you’re the Boss and you guess wrong. The scum already know you can be recruited. Any reason you had for remaining silent is gone.
[/QUOTE]
EBWOP: Or you guess right, and are immediately counterclaimed by the real role, of course.
Also, to answer HNC, I believed that BlaM was scum, either Boss or recruited. I almost investigated him the night before.
[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
Oh, for the love of God, you’re talking yourself in logical circles. You have to remember that Night actions, particularly kills, are chosen for specific reasons, and that’s often because they can often predict with a fair bit of accuracy how kills will be taken. Imagine this scenario: Player X suspects Player Y, that Night, Player X is killed and comes up town. Was Player X right and the scum killed him to silence him? Or, was Player X wrong, and they killed him to make it look like they were silencing him? It’s impossible to tell, so using it as evidence to support either conclusion is specious logic at best.
The scenario with the kill on the first Night is the same thing. Is the Boss inexperienced, so he thought a kill would be a good idea? Is the Boss experienced, so he thought a kill would mislead people to think he was inexperienced? There’s no way to assign any sort of probabilities to either of those scenarios more than just a straight up guess, so there’s precisely ZERO information that can be gained from pondering it.
[/QUOTE]
So it’s specious reasoning for me to say that it’s impossible to conclude that the boss is a newb because an experienced player could have their own reasons for making a fake newb play? Because that’s sure as shit what I was saying. Every time you say I’ve got specious reasoning (boy, do you love that term), you’ve summed up what I have to say in a completely off-base way. I don’t think that’s necessarily what happened (experienced newb-style ploy), but it is a possibility and should not be dismissed out of hand, as it seemed to be yesterDay.
[QUOTE=HazelNutCoffee]
I feel like this post is a subtle push away from Darth and towards Millit. FWIW.
[/QUOTE]
As if Blaster Master is scum, and protecting his dark lord Darth? Hmm.
:dubious: <– of deep thought, not of skepticism
[QUOTE=Drain Bead]
EBWOP: Or you guess right, and are immediately counterclaimed by the real role, of course.
[/QUOTE]
You’re not answering my question: why should I say it and then you confirm? Why don’t you simply say what you found? It doesn’t change any of the resulting logic.
considering putting both Drain Bead and BlaM on my ignore list
Argh. WTF, Drain Bead? First claiming Blaster is a Consigliere, then claiming Pleonast investigated as a role other than priest? FoS Drain Bead, Blaster Master, Pleonast until I can figure out which one of you (if anybody) is telling the truth.
[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
If she succeeds in getting me lynched, she’s traded her own vanilla scum self for the lynch of a pro-town power role…
[/QUOTE]
:dubious: Are you claiming something, Blaster?
I still don’t see a strong case for Darth Sensitive. Is it anything other than him being too pessimistic about two nights ago?
I believe Drain Bead. I don’t see why the scum would sacrifice her to get at Blaster Master. I also don’t see why the scum would sacrifice *two *consiglieres just to distract us for a couple of days. So I’m pretty certain Blaster Master is scum.
But, for the moment, I Vote Pleonast. Lynch all liars. He’s not the doctor, he’s not the vigilante, and he’s not the detective. If he’s a beat cop/police chief he needs to claim and tell us his results, if any. If he’s a Mason, well then sinjin and he can confirm each other. Bishop is close enough to priest for our purposes, and is confirmable by counter-claim. So I can’t see why he’d need to hold out on us. It seems most likely to me that Drain hit the boss, and got a failed result.
Tells us what you really are, Pleo. If Drain confirms, then I’ll happily change my vote for BM or another boss suspect.
[QUOTE=Hawkeyeop]
He was still arguing that Darth was more likely to be the boss than anyone else except Milli. I don’t think I like those two suspects. I’ll try to come up with another.
[/QUOTE]
He’s arguing that if we were on the verge of catching the boss, the two most likely candidates are Darth and Millit. Which is true.
If Blaster is scum, and Darth is the Boss, and mind you, I’m speculating here - I don’t have any evidence quite yet - it makes sense for Blaster to acknowledge that Darth is a candidate for most likely to be Boss based on yesterDay’s results. Actually, he kind of has to, if he wants to support his own theory. But he’s implying that it’s more likely to be Millit than Darth because Darth “made a good defense” and that the only evidence against him was the “slip” made at Dusk.
Personally, I don’t think Darth’s defense was any good. Which is why I find Blaster’s nudge in that direction suspicious.
Also, I have the nagging feeling that NAF’s lynch was orchestrated by Blaster very deliberately. I’ll have to finish my re-read before I expand further upon this theory, though.
[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
considering putting both Drain Bead and BlaM on my ignore list
[/QUOTE]
Now THAT would make for an interesting game. Heh.
And dotchan, thank you for pointing that out. I meant to comment on it but it slipped my mind in the chaos. ARE you claiming something, BlaM?
[QUOTE=Drain Bead]
The only way you have anything to lose now is if you’re the Boss and you guess wrong. The scum already know you can be recruited. Any reason you had for remaining silent is gone.
[/QUOTE]
Or, to put it another way, the Town will gain more information if you go first. If I’m the Boss, you’ll catch me either way. If I’m not, the Town will gain information on your current status. My status will be the same either way, as you say.
[QUOTE=Pleonast]
Or, to put it another way, the Town will gain more information if you go first. If I’m the Boss, you’ll catch me either way. If I’m not, the Town will gain information on your current status. My status will be the same either way, as you say.
[/QUOTE]
Pleonast, you go first. Drain is on my ignore list*.
Just kidding, but you’ve already pointed out it doesn’t really matter, and Drain is being stubborn in general today, so just tell us already.