[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
you’ve already pointed out it doesn’t really matter, and Drain is being stubborn in general today, so just tell us already.
[/QUOTE]
It doesn’t matter for my status, but it does matter for Drain’s.
Look everyone, I have a good reason for holding out. I’m willing to be lynched rather than say anything more.
[QUOTE=Pleonast]
Or, to put it another way, the Town will gain more information if you go first. If I’m the Boss, you’ll catch me either way. If I’m not, the Town will gain information on your current status. My status will be the same either way, as you say.
[/QUOTE]
How will the Town gain anything on MY current status if I say what I think you are? This won’t tell the town anything about me one way or the other.
[QUOTE=Pleonast]
It doesn’t matter for my status, but it does matter for Drain’s.
Look everyone, I have a good reason for holding out. I’m willing to be lynched rather than say anything more.
[/QUOTE]
No you don’t. If you’re an investigator, share your results before dying. If you’re a mason, then confront or confirm sinjin. If you can contradict a claimed role, better to do that now and give us a chance to shake out which one is the scum.
I find this whole dance very odd. When Drain said she didn’t want to share a result, I assumed she got a blocked result (someone I protected) and was hesitant to give a result that didn’t really say anything or would shed light on my protection pattern.
But this… I don’t like this at all. I still believe Drain since I don’t see the play if she’s scum.
[QUOTE=Drain Bead]
How will the Town gain anything on MY current status if I say what I think you are? This won’t tell the town anything about me one way or the other.
[/QUOTE]
Because you will have announced the results of an investigation that can then be proved or disproved. Remember, you are not the only one with information.
You’ve already admitted that it doesn’t matter for me. Give me a little credibility when I say it will be better for the Town for you to announce your results first.
[QUOTE=sinjin]
And again I ask if Drain was scum and wanted a diversion why didn’t she say Blaster was the Boss? It would have been a slam-dunk, mission accomplished.
[/QUOTE]
Pointing out anyone is the Boss is difficult, if not impossible. Unless she had investigated the Boss and he comes up as something that is likely untrue (ie, Detective, Doctor) or had happened to find the Boss. Besides, how many of you would be likely to believe I’m the Boss? Several of you seemed keen Yesterday that I might have been recruited, so wouldn’t it simply be more believable to confirm that pre-existing suspicion you all had?
Obviously Drain knew you were lying, Pleonast. That confirms for us she’s the Detective. That does NOT confirm whether she’s scum or town. She’d know your real role regardless of her side. So what do we have to gain from her going first?
Ugh. We should lynch liars just on principle. At least in Conspiracy sachertorte never lied - he simply withheld information. Liars always make things screwy, regardless of motive.
Argh, this argument is getting us nowhere. Isn’t there some way Drain and Pleonast could, I don’t know, sync watches and post simultaneously?
[QUOTE=dotchan]
Argh, this argument is getting us nowhere. Isn’t there some way Drain and Pleonast could, I don’t know, sync watches and post simultaneously?
[/QUOTE]
Stop reading my mind, dotchan. 
That was exactly what I had in mind when I posted, but I figured it’d be a bit difficult to pull off so I didn’t mention it.
[QUOTE=bufftabby]
So it’s specious reasoning for me to say that it’s impossible to conclude that the boss is a newb because an experienced player could have their own reasons for making a fake newb play? Because that’s sure as shit what I was saying. Every time you say I’ve got specious reasoning (boy, do you love that term), you’ve summed up what I have to say in a completely off-base way. I don’t think that’s necessarily what happened (experienced newb-style ploy), but it is a possibility and should not be dismissed out of hand, as it seemed to be yesterDay.
[/QUOTE]
In what way to I sum up what you said in a completely off-base way? It’s simple. We have a kill Night One, and two possible explanations. There is no evidence to either support or dispute on explanation over the other. Both are possibilities, but because no evidence exists to apply any sort of probability to either scenario, the actually information gain (refer to the entropy equation I posted earlier) is zero.
So, sure, it’s a possibility, but that possibility is probabilitistically and, more importantly, informationally indistinguishable for the other possibility; hence, any consideration of it is an exercise in futility, because you’re equally likely to be right as you are wrong.
A simple analogy would be flipping a fair coin. You say it’s a possibility that it will come up heads, therefore, we should evaluate the heads scenario. I’m saying, there’s no way to tell how the coin will land until it is flipped and, until it lands and you’re ultimately proven completely right or completely wrong, and you don’t actually have any information about how the coin will actually land. Predicting the coin will land heads results in a completely different resultant set of information as predicting it will land tails, but both have identical probabilities of occuring. Thus, summing the opposing informations (say, 1 and -1) times their probabilities (.5 and .5) results in a zero information sum (.5 * 1 + .5 * (-1) = 0).
When you actually have supportive evidence, you’re no longer flipping a fair coin, and you actually do have some information gain, such that, even if you’re wrong, you’re less likely to be wrong.
In other words, unless there’s some substantiable evidence to support that the kill on Night One was done by either a new player or a bluffing experienced player, we’re stuck flipping a fair coin. If you can provide such supporting evidence, that it was one or the other, then and only then, would I consider it a fruitful endeavor to use that as reason to either support or deny a lynch candidate.
FWIW, I DO like to use the word specious… I think it’s fun to say.
[QUOTE=dotchan]
:dubious: Are you claiming something, Blaster?
[/QUOTE]
FTR, yes, I have a power role. I have no intention of claiming it at this time because I do not want to add fuel to the the fire on the lynch me or DB train of thought. It is not in our best interest to do so, it is in our best interest to find the Boss.
However, if you all simply will not let it go, and the only way to move on is to pick one of the two of us, I’ll provide a full disclosure of my role, along with a more cogent argument, hopefully, less tainted by my frustration.
[QUOTE=HazelNutCoffee]
He’s arguing that if we were on the verge of catching the boss, the two most likely candidates are Darth and Millit. Which is true.
If Blaster is scum, and Darth is the Boss, and mind you, I’m speculating here - I don’t have any evidence quite yet - it makes sense for Blaster to acknowledge that Darth is a candidate for most likely to be Boss based on yesterDay’s results. Actually, he kind of has to, if he wants to support his own theory. But he’s implying that it’s more likely to be Millit than Darth because Darth “made a good defense” and that the only evidence against him was the “slip” made at Dusk.
Personally, I don’t think Darth’s defense was any good. Which is why I find Blaster’s nudge in that direction suspicious.
[/quote]
I’d like you to explain this one for me. I agree with the first two paragraphs, but I don’t see why you think my “nudge” is suspicious. AFAICT, the only evidence against Darth Sensitive was the slip and, while his defense was simply point out other points of despair others had expressed, the only seemingly odd point about it was the timing. Still, it was correctly pointed out that, even if we HAD gotten scum, it would have been blind luck, and STILL would have been disasterous because of the sheer number of outted power roles. I think that, had Drain Bead not pulled this ballsy move, the suspicion on him would have waned simply because I don’t think there was any other evidence against him. Am I incorrect? If so, please point it out.
Either way, I think logic dictates that if my theory is correct, the boss is highly likely to be among those who were under the most suspicion. Now, if I were Darth Sensitive, seeing that my defense was taken well, I probably wouldn’t have orchestrated the sort of move that Drain Bead is pulling right now. OTOH, Millit was highly defensive after a single vote; this sort of panicky move to draw attention away would be consistent with that sort of behavior.
Can anyone say, prior to this whole fiasco, that they’d be surprised if the top two lynch candidates today would be Millit and Darth Sensitive? Either way, I want to hear more out of both of them.
I was spearheading it, but I really don’t see how I could orchestrate someone’s lynch. I made a number of posts, both Yesterday and the Day before outlining my suspicion of NAF. Obviously, I was ultimately incorrect, but nobody is perfect.
[QUOTE=dotchan]
Argh, this argument is getting us nowhere. Isn’t there some way Drain and Pleonast could, I don’t know, sync watches and post simultaneously?
[/QUOTE]
They could both PM their information to one or more of us. Once PMs are received from both of them, the info would then be easily shared without fear of one tainting the other.
Only question is if this move would be kosher from a mod standpoint.
What say you, fluiddruid?
[QUOTE=dotchan]
Argh, this argument is getting us nowhere. Isn’t there some way Drain and Pleonast could, I don’t know, sync watches and post simultaneously?
[/QUOTE]
No matter who says what first, there’s no way to logically consistent way to discern who is telling the truth and who is lying if they happen to disagree. Even if they do agree, it still doesn’t prove that one of them isn’t lying (as the second is just confirming) or that BOTH aren’t lying.
Pleonast is the only one that WE can be sure knows his own role without prejudice. Just because Drain Bead probably knows his role, since she’s scum, she’s under no obligation to actually confirm him. And from Pleonast’s perspective, since he doesn’t know if she’s scum or not, he doesn’t know if scum actually know his role or not, so he could potentially be hindering the town by putting information out there under the assumption that scum know, when they really don’t.
[QUOTE=Hal Briston]
They could both PM their information to one or more of us. Once PMs are received from both of them, the info would then be easily shared without fear of one tainting the other.
Only question is if this move would be kosher from a mod standpoint.
What say you, fluiddruid?
[/QUOTE]
OOG: Unless the game is specifically designed with PMs in mind, I really think that any use of PMs is outside of the spirit of the game for numerous reasons. For instance, masons could pass messages back and forth, a detective could pass results to people he trusted, scum could communicate during the Day, etc. Condoning it in this case would provide a definitive advantage to one side (depending on the actual alignments of Pleonast and Drain Bead).
So, even if this opinion will make me look scummy, I’d rather get lynched and potentially lose inside the spirit of the game than win with actions outside of it.
I’d certainly agree, if the point were to be communicating in secret. I’d have no truck with smacking down the idea of players PMing each other to trade secrets or ideas amongst themselves. However, this is information for everyone – it’s just sort of being put in a virtual sealed envelope for a few minutes.
[QUOTE=Hal Briston]
They could both PM their information to one or more of us. Once PMs are received from both of them, the info would then be easily shared without fear of one tainting the other.
Only question is if this move would be kosher from a mod standpoint.
[/QUOTE]
It sounds attractive, but the question has to be asked : who would you trust to do this? Who are you 100% sure is not scum and wouldn’t meddle with the result? And even if they don’t, suppose that one or both of the involved parties say they did? Who do you believe?
Even with Fluiddruid’s agreement to the procedure I would find that an insuperable hurdle. The only player I can be sure might not lie is me - and how can anyone else trust me?
There’s only one person I’d think all parties could trust, and that’s Fluiddruid herself. And I know that I’d never have consented to such shenanigans the two games I modded. It just sits wrong with me.
Ultimately it’s Fluiddruid’s game, and her call. But I don’t like the idea at all.
[QUOTE=MHaye]
It sounds attractive, but the question has to be asked : who would you trust to do this? Who are you 100% sure is not scum and wouldn’t meddle with the result? And even if they don’t, suppose that one or both of the involved parties say they did? Who do you believe?
[/QUOTE]
So let’s take the player list and they send it to the first six people on there (I say that without looking). That practically guarantees there will be pro-town people getting the IMs. Once they’re all out in the open, any discrepencies would be suicide. Fudging the results would be found out sooner rather than later, and we’d have extra scum on the hook.
And with that, my workday ends. Might be back after putting The Littlest Briston to bed.
Good Lord, that’s a terrible idea, and against the rules as far as I’m concerned. If they PM anyone it should be fluiddruid, since obviously she’s the only one we can trust at this point. I’m still against the idea in principle though.
BlaM, I considered your nudge suspicious because I didn’t think Darth’s defense was a good one. I said as much at the end of yesterDay. Besides, we were much closer to lynching Darth than we were Millit.
And perhaps orchestrate was the wrong word to use, but you certainly were driving it. I’ll have to do a re-read before I can decide whether or not you had scummy intentions though. I’ll fully admit that heading a townie lynch isn’t scummy per se, but right now I need to step back and cool my head a bit so I can perhaps look at everything with fresh eyes.
I can’t believe we’re seriously entertaining this possibility. Pleo lied to us, people. He’s likely the boss! Lynch him!
If what he says matches what Drain said, then maybe, maybe we can discuss other options (if we’re hunting the boss instead of just lynching Blaster Master right now).
[QUOTE=Hal Briston]
So let’s take the player list and they send it to the first six people on there (I say that without looking). That practically guarantees there will be pro-town people getting the IMs. Once they’re all out in the open, any discrepencies would be suicide. Fudging the results would be found out sooner rather than later, and we’d have extra scum on the hook.
[/QUOTE]
That deals with my first objection, since at the moment there cannot be more than five Mafia, and that’s assuming Koldanar is lying through his teeth about Night 1.
I’d still rather not do it, though. My gut feeling is that it’s outside the limits of this game.