Mafia: The Mob is Recruiting [Game Finished]

[Drain_Bead]

As much as I would like to end this argument, I think that the PM suggestion is way outside the spirit of the game. Plus, say you get scum on that list of six. Then people start lying about the results and you’ve got a whole 'nother WIFOM game to play.

About the only person I trust in this game is Koldanar. I think if we could do the PM thing, it’s pretty clear that he was the Vig and is now a Priest, and therefore unrecruitable.

[Hawkeyeop]

@Menocchio

I can’t believe we’re seriously entertaining this possibility. Pleo lied to us, people. He’s likely the boss! Lynch him!

If what he says matches what Drain said, then maybe, maybe we can discuss other options (if we’re hunting the boss instead of just lynching Blaster Master right now).

Whaaaaaat? I have no idea how you reach that conclusion. Why would drainbead be so reluctant to reveal Pleo’s role if he was the godfather? His actions make much more sense as a bishop than as a boss. Which leads me to question what role Blaster thinks is worth protecting. Tomorrow, I’m going to try to make a timeline of how I think things have happened thus far.

[fluiddruid]

@Hal Briston

They could both PM their information to one or more of us. Once PMs are received from both of them, the info would then be easily shared without fear of one tainting the other.

Only question is if this move would be kosher from a mod standpoint.

What say you, fluiddruid?

Uh, no. PMing other players unless specifically outlined in the rules is not kosher.

[Menocchio]

@Hawkeyeop

Whaaaaaat? I have no idea how you reach that conclusion. Why would drainbead be so reluctant to reveal Pleo’s role if he was the godfather? His actions make much more sense as a bishop than as a boss. Which leads me to question what role Blaster thinks is worth protecting. Tomorrow, I’m going to try to make a timeline of how I think things have happened thus far.

The problem is obviously that Drain Bead got a result other than Priest. This could be because Pleo is a townie still hiding from the scum, or it might be because Pleo is the boss and Drain failed their roll and returned a random town role.

If it’s the former, then Pleo should just come out. If it’s the latter, then we should still force Pleo out, and then we’ll know if Drain got a different result.

[bufftabby]

@Blaster Master

In what way to I sum up what you said in a completely off-base way? It’s simple. We have a kill Night One, and two possible explanations. There is no evidence to either support or dispute on explanation over the other. Both are possibilities, but because no evidence exists to apply any sort of probability to either scenario, the actually information gain (refer to the entropy equation I posted earlier) is zero.

So, sure, it’s a possibility, but that possibility is probabilitistically and, more importantly, informationally indistinguishable for the other possibility; hence, any consideration of it is an exercise in futility, because you’re equally likely to be right as you are wrong.

A simple analogy would be flipping a fair coin. You say it’s a possibility that it will come up heads, therefore, we should evaluate the heads scenario. I’m saying, there’s no way to tell how the coin will land until it is flipped and, until it lands and you’re ultimately proven completely right or completely wrong, and you don’t actually have any information about how the coin will actually land. Predicting the coin will land heads results in a completely different resultant set of information as predicting it will land tails, but both have identical probabilities of occuring. Thus, summing the opposing informations (say, 1 and -1) times their probabilities (.5 and .5) results in a zero information sum (.5 * 1 + .5 * (-1) = 0).

When you actually have supportive evidence, you’re no longer flipping a fair coin, and you actually do have some information gain, such that, even if you’re wrong, you’re less likely to be wrong.

In other words, unless there’s some substantiable evidence to support that the kill on Night One was done by either a new player or a bluffing experienced player, we’re stuck flipping a fair coin. If you can provide such supporting evidence, that it was one or the other, then and only then, would I consider it a fruitful endeavor to use that as reason to either support or deny a lynch candidate.
FWIW, I DO like to use the word specious… I think it’s fun to say.

That’s what I’m trying to say: making the point that it wasn’t necessarily a newb kill is intended to counteract the specious (it’s catching…) reasoning that it must have been a newb kill. As a newb, I’d like to think I have a great stake in countering that poorly reasoned argument.

[Pleonast]

I guess I have to spell it out:

1. Drain Bead tells us his result.
2. I then reveal my information confirming my role.

We have to do it in this order because Drain only has one piece of information concerning me: the result of the investigation, my role. I have more than one piece of information: my role and something more. I can confirm my role with more than a simple “yes, that it is correct”. If we do it in the wrong order, Drain shows nothing new. If we do it the correct order, we both reveal information.

unvote Darth Sensitive
vote Menocchio

I’ll switch back to Darth if need be. I can understand Drain being careful. Men is being simply anti-Town by trying to hustle us to a conclusion.

[Menocchio]

Of course you do, Pleo. :rolleyes:

Look there are two conflicting parties here, Pleonast and Drain Bead. We must get the one who we trust least to go first, to be confirmed (at least provisionally) by the other. It would be the height of foolishness to trust Pleonast more.

Why?

BECAUSE WE KNOW HE WAS LYING TO US! WE KNOW THIS FOR A FACT!

I trust Drain more at this point, because at least she’s not a proven liar. That’s all there is to it.

[Koldanar]

@Menocchio

Of course you do, Pleo. :rolleyes:

Look there are two conflicting parties here, Pleonast and Drain Bead. We must get the one who we trust least to go first, to be confirmed (at least provisionally) by the other. It would be the height of foolishness to trust Pleonast more.

Why?

BECAUSE WE KNOW HE WAS LYING TO US! WE KNOW THIS FOR A FACT!

I trust Drain more at this point, because at least she’s not a proven liar. That’s all there is to it.

And if Pleo was the Bishop, and the boss had a capo option…well thats a huge lose for the town. And the Bishop IS a sort of priest. That could be a good lie, no? Of course by now, with the Drain Bead stuff, this may be a moot point and Pleo could have been or is going to be attempted to be recruited.

[Menocchio]

@bufftabby

That’s what I’m trying to say: making the point that it wasn’t necessarily a newb kill is intended to counteract the specious (it’s catching…) reasoning that it must have been a newb kill. As a newb, I’d like to think I have a great stake in countering that poorly reasoned argument.

And while I’m at it, stop arguing with the scum. It can only confuse things. I don’t have a problem with letting BM live while we search for the boss, but we pretty much have to ignore him.

[Menocchio]

@Koldanar

And if Pleo was the Bishop, and the boss had a capo option…well thats a huge lose for the town. And the Bishop IS a sort of priest. That could be a good lie, no? Of course by now, with the Drain Bead stuff, this may be a moot point and Pleo could have been or is going to be attempted to be recruited.

Not really. Not anymore than Drain Bead or myself. We’d know to keep an eye on him, I’d have him under my protection. And that’s assuming that they haven’t already blown the Capo, which they may have.

[fluiddruid]

Blaster Master (6): Drain Bead*, (Koldanar), Hockey Monkey, OneCentStamp, bufftabby, sinjin, Hal Briston, (HazelNutCoffee)
Darth Sensitive (2): (Pleonast), Santo Rugger, HazelNutCoffee
Millit the Frail (1): Blaster Master
Pleonast (1): Menocchio
Menocchio (1): Pleonast
Drain Bead (0): (Drain Bead)

No vote yet:
Millit the Frail
USCDiver [sub for Diomedes]
MHaye
Koldanar
Hawkeyeop
Hotflungwok
Darth Sensitive
dotchan [sub for Freudian Slit after dying on Day 3]

No current vote:
Koldanar

The day ends on Tuesday, March 25 at 11am CST.

[dotchan]

I’m willing to believe Drain Bead for the time being, and though it would have been nice to find the Boss, we do need to start killing scum anyway. If BM turns up Town DB will obviously be first on the list to hang toMorrow.

I’m going home over the weekend, so participation may be low.

vote Blaster Master, unless I can be convinced that someone else is a better choice.

My FoS on all three players remain.

[hotflungwok]

@Pleonast

I guess I have to spell it out:

1. Drain Bead tells us his result.
2. I then reveal my information confirming my role.

We have to do it in this order because Drain only has one piece of information concerning me: the result of the investigation, my role. I have more than one piece of information: my role and something more. I can confirm my role with more than a simple “yes, that it is correct”. If we do it in the wrong order, Drain shows nothing new. If we do it the correct order, we both reveal information.

And if you are lying and you are the boss then this will negate any information we have, as you can just smile and nod your head no matter what he says.

We don’t have anyone we can trust as town?

[Millit_the_Frail]

Woah. OK, a lot has happened here. I’m inclined to trust Drain Bead. I feel like everything that Blaster has said since the reveal has been smokescreen. However, I don’t feel good about the whole Pleonast thing. I think he’s walking on thin ice. Frankly, it’s more important that we find out if he is the Boss than we let him exercise whatever power he has. I have a strong feeling that he KNOWS that if he claims a role before Drain Bead says what she got for him, he’ll guess wrong. That, my friends, is a craptastic situation if you’re a fake Priest (which I suspected earlier)!

Now, maybe it’s a controversial position to take, but I believe that a certain amount of lying is permissible in a recruiting game. I don’t think we should lynch Pleonast outright for lying. After all, it’s a really good thing to try to foil recruitment. Not all lies are equal. If I were a Priest and I claimed to be a Beat Cop, I could get the scum to waste a recruitment. And I’ll say it again–recruitment is a much better deal for the scum than killing. That could be a permissible lie, in my book. Of course, you need to come clean at some point. I would expect that I would reveal myself in a couple of days or upon my (assured, eventual) death. Does it really hurt anyone? But Pleo is in a corner now. It is of utmost importance that we find the Boss, and if he won’t reveal his identity before Drain Bead does, we need to lynch him toMorrow, stat.

For now, though, vote Blaster Master.

[USCDiver]

Ok, I’ve been trying to follow along while I’ve been at work, but it’s been moving so fast.

I want to take a minute and examine Drain Bead’s investigation result. Let’s assume, for a minute, that she is telling the truth and Blaster Master has investigated as ‘Consigliere’. This means that he was recruited either Night 2, 3, or 4 and that his previous role was Beat Cop, Police Chief or Mason (Detective and Doctor having already been claimed). If he was a Mason then the Scum already know the identity of the others. If he was a Beat Cop or the Police Chief then ‘who cares’ because all of his investigations until his recruitment will have been Town or Mafia, which of course the Scum already know. Bottom line, as a ‘Consigliere’ and not the ‘Capo’ his former powers are essentially useless to the scum at this point(aside from the 5% thing).

The only argument against lynching Blaster Master today is that we should be going after the Boss above all other concerns. I agree with this sentiment, but I don’t think we have any real idea of who the boss is. Right now we have 3 possibilities on the table: Darth Sensitive, Millit the Frail, and Pleonast. I would argue that if we’re going to include Pleonast for lying about his role and possibly being the Boss with a false reading then we should also include Blaster Master as possibly being the Boss with a false reading.

So for now I’m going to vote Blaster Master, unless and until someone can make a more compelling argument for the Boss.

I’d also like to see the Pleonast/Drain Bead thing wrapped up.

[Drain_Bead]

Just for the record, I’m a she. When I see people refer to me as “he” in a post full of pronouns, I get very confused.

[bufftabby]

@Menocchio

And while I’m at it, stop arguing with the scum. It can only confuse things. I don’t have a problem with letting BM live while we search for the boss, but we pretty much have to ignore him.

Bolding of the imperative is mine.

A more tactful strategy would’ve been to suggest that I do this, rather than ordering me to do this. I’m not scum, so I don’t have a Boss. So I will continue to do as I please, but thanks for the helpful hint.

[hotflungwok]

Do we have any confirmed roles? How about the vig turned priest? Neither can be recruited.

[hotflungwok]

Oops, no PMing. Rats.

[USCDiver]

@hotflungwok

Do we have any confirmed roles? How about the vig turned priest? Neither can be recruited.

I think that barring a counter-claim for Doctor, Detective or Vig, we have to believe their claims. Same for Masons. The disclaimer is that any scum could be masquerading as a recruited power role. But so many of our power roles were outed on Day 3, that seems highly unlikely.