Alright, lemmie ask this. We know Pleonast lied. We know he’s not a priest. He has already said he won’t talk unless Drain Bead talks first, which would negate any information Drain Bead has.
Which of the two do we trust? I know we’re not sure about Pleonasst, but are we sure about Drain Bead?
Does this make him a good candidate for the boss? If so, why not lynch him today?
We can always lynch BlaM tommorrow.
No we don’t know he’s not a Priest. The possibility remains that Drain Bead has been recruited and is working some elaborate plot against Pleonast. You’ll have to use your own judgement on how likely that possibility is.
Be careful about falling into the dichotomous thinking. It’s possible that both Pleonast and Drain Bead are both still pro-town and just not trusting each other. Of course we should be suspicious of anyone who lies in this game, but lying to save a Power Role is still a Pro-Town action.
Yeah, looks like the whole lot of you bought Drain Bead’s ridiculous scheme, eh? God forbid you actually look at her actions today. They’re scummier than hell is hot! Everyone seems to be overlooking the fact that she’s a prime recruitment candidate. Everyone seems to be overlooking the fact she’s calling Pleonast out and making him look like a liar. Everyone seems to over looking the fact that she keeps drawing attention towards people who can’t possibly be the Boss for lynch candidates.
Let’s just trust her because we know she wasn’t recruited when she claimed on Day Two. Well, you know what? NO ONE was bloody well recruited on Day Two, unless Koldanar is lying, and if he is lying, Drain Bead MUST be, because she already said (after the fact, of course) that she had a Vigilante reading on him.
So let’s see, we have evidence enough to believe that she was pro-town on Day Two and, unless I’m the Boss, which if you thought so puts you far beyond the realm of logic, I was also verifiably pro-town on Day Two. So, put yourself in scum’s shoes, whom do you recruit? Do you take a ~65% chance on recruiting me, or a 50% chance on the single most important role in the game? Do you just sit back and let her investigate over and over until she happens to trip over the Boss?
So, yeah… I MUST be scum. God Forbid we look at the available facts and see that the only thing she has going for her claim is the fact that she was, at one point, the Detective.
You can safely trust Koldanar as, if he were lying, the real Vig would have offed him by now, unless the real Vig is monumentally stupid. As for the Doctor and Detective, you can believe their claims that they at least were what they say they are, since they were made on Day Two when we know that no one was recruited. However, that doesn’t mean they aren’t scum now, since there’s three Nights intervening. In fact, I’d be quite surprised if they didn’t at least try to recruit at least one or the other between the two of them, given the value of their roles and the relative risk.
Yeah. Damn. This is tough to get a handle on.
Or, as is not outside the realm of possibility, they’re both scum. They recruited Drain Bead, she tells them his actual role (let’s say Police Chief), they recruit him, then it doesn’t matter which one you pick, the other one looks clean as a whistle, and she can just get a bunch of townie readings, easily hiding the Boss or other scum in there and, when it starts to look bad for her or the Boss, she can always just pick pretty much anyone at random and try to drag them down with her to either get us to waste yet another lynch before getting her, or try to buy the Boss at least one more Day to recruit.
Gah! do you even read what I’ve written? Let’s review:
If I reveal first, it negates the information Drain has. I have additional information that will confirm my role, even after Drain has stated her result. I’m not asking you to trust me. I’m telling you I’m confirmable. If my confirmation does not satisfy you, you can lynch me then.
And the advantage to the Town of doing it this way should be clear: it forces both Drain and myself to put out verifiable information. The Town can then make a more informed decision.
The fact that Menocchio wants to simply lynch me without forcing Drain to reveal shows which side he’s working for.
I think this is the case. But I have enough doubt about Drain’s actions that I’m not going to unilaterally reveal information.
Pleonast claimed on Day 2, the rest claimed on Day 3. So Night 3 and Night 4 would have been the only recruitment times since the claims were made. Not that one of them couldn’t have been randomly recruited Night 2, but that could have been said of anyone.
I’m sorry, you’re right… I’ve somehow mixed those two Days together in my head. Then, I suppose, we can’t even really trust either of them is actually the role they say they are. Though it is unlikely that either was lying when they claimed, it’s also entirely possible that the REAL Doctor or Detective was recruited, and then that role becomes fair game for ANY scum to claim when under pressure because a recruited power role shows up as Consigliere, so even if the real recruited power role IS found out, it wouldn’t provide any way to show that the false claiming scum was actually lying.
Hoo boy.
It’s taken me far too long to write this.
Before I think about who to vote for, the state of the game at the moment. Since we’ve had four nights, that’s a maximum of five players out of nineteen in the Mafia. That’s possible only if every recruitment has succeeded, and if Koldanar is lying through his teeth – which would make him a scum.
The implication of assuming there was a recruitment on Night 1 is that there was a Vig in play who is not Koldanar – and can therefore out him as a liar. If Koldanar is lying, then Drainbead is also lying to us, and has been since Yesterday at least. Thus the cost to the Mafia for lying about Koldanar is high – too high for me to think it happened.
So there are at most 4 Mafia. The current gamestate is 15:4 at worst. I’m going to assume that is the case, although 16:3 is a real possibility.
25% Mafia is not really enough to guide lynch votes without drastic risk of exposure. Thus I’m having a hard time right now seeing what the Mafia would hope to gain by sacrificing two players in order to buy time for some more recruitments, which might not work.
If we assume Drainbead is recruited, what consequences follow?
If Drainbead is lying, then we’ll know as soon as we lynch BlaM – which we will sooner or later. We’ll know Drainbead is lying to us, and has been since Day 5 at least. We won’t be able to rule out the possibility that she was recruited on Night 3 either; if the Detective is made a Capo, she keeps her investigative ability. (For this purpose, if BlaM is revealed to have any role except Consigliere, Capo or Boss I would consider Drainbead has lied to us.) Soomer or later we’ll lynch Drainbead too.
I guesstimate the chances of a recruitment failure over the next two nights is about 35%, assuming two unrevealed Masons and one unclaimed priest, neglecting the Doctor’s protective effect.
If, on the other hand, Drainbead is telling the truth, then BlaM really is a Consigliere. Lynching him would send the Mafia into Night 5 with only three members, and again considering the risk of recruitment failure they’re chancing starting Day 7 with only four members. That’s not much of a numerical gain, so the Mafia must be angling for a positional gain of some kind.
We’re not likely to lynch Drainbead the Day after she’s revealed a Mafiate to us, so the Mafia could be buying trust for her. But it’s expensive.
In either case, if we lynch BlaM Today, by Day 7 the Mafia risk winding up with only four members. By comparison, if the accusation had not been made, then the Mafia might hope we lynch another Townie Today, then recruit Tonight for a position of 13 Townies : 5 Mafia. In short, this gambit (if such it is) leaves the Mafia in a weaker position on Day 7 than they could reasonably hope for on Day 6 without it.
Therefore if this is a gambit, it’s driven by something else. The only plausible suggestion is that we came close to executing the Boss Yesterday. That would make Darth Sensitive the obvious candidate, although BlaM suggested that Millit the Frail was a possibility.
If Drainbead remains unrecruited, then BlaM is Consigliere (or higher) rank in the Mafia and we need to kill him sooner or later.
Keeping the Mafia numbers down not only slows their chance of winning, it puts pressure on them to take more risks, and the more risks they take the better our chance of flushing them from cover.
Therefore I will vote Blaster Master. Should evidence emerge which points to the Boss, then I will change my vote.
I haven’t yet fully taken the argument regarding Pleonast’s role into consideration. That’s next up on my list of Mafia to-do’s. I have another game deadline to worry about though - rolling up an 18th level Abjurer. Back in a while.
Okay, somehow I’ve missed this part before. So Pleonast, you’re saying that you have information that Drain Bead DOES NOT have that will confirm your role?
That’s a pretty bold claim to make, unless you’re telling the truth.
Jesus Christ, people, let’s put an end to this. If what Pleonast says is true, then there’s no harm in Drain Bead going first. She reveals her result, Pleonast confirms and gives us his extra bit of information. If we don’t like it, we put him on the to-lynch list.
So can we please get this wrapped up and then start focusing on finding the Boss?
Although upon further reflection, I’m still not sure why Pleonast is insisting that Drain Bead goes first . . . even with that extra bit of supposedly confirmable information. Drain Bead going first is supposed to achieve what, exactly? That she’s a Detective? Does anyone here doubt that?
However, at this point the order of revelation doesn’t fucking matter. I just want us to get past this so we can move on. Pretty please? Surely both of you are aware that this prolonged discussion is doing no one any good.
Off to work on my re-read.
Hey everybody, I’m about to take a week’s vacation during which my internet access will be spotty to nonexistent. This means I’ll miss the tail end of toDay, all of toNight, and the beginning of toMorrow. If I don’t get lynched at dusk or die in the Night, I’ll be back at that point, raring to go.
I’m a little concerned that I’ll be last-minute-lynched in my absence, and I don’t want to take anything to the grave with me, so I’m going to go ahead and claim.
I’m a Beat Cop. I was recruited (to be a cop, not recruited by the Mafia) on Night 1.
I’ve given fluiddruid instructions on whom I want to investigate tonight (assuming I’m not lynched), and backup instructions in the event that my first choice is lynched.
If anyone wants to argue with me, ask me questions, or abuse me for claiming, I’ll be around for about another two hours today.
Oh, and unvote Blaster Master. Vote Darth Sensitive.
Am I missing something? According to what I see in the rules, you don’t get false positives on your reads, do you? You can get a “no read”, but I don’t see anything about bad reads.
Ok. I’m about to be off for the day.
I think that **Pleo **and DB need to come and agree with each other. Maybe they should “synchronize watches and post” as mentioned up thread. I don’t believe that all three are scum - I’m leaning towards trusting DB.
But I was suspicious of the early priest claim when it came out and left my vote there. For now, I’m going to Vote Pleonast in order to pressure him into his reveal.
OCS Since you’re leaving soon - what’s the rationale of your vote on me?
His read on me means I’m either Town - or the Boss, Hitman, or Capo. Beat Cops have a 50% chance of getting a Town reading on those three.
From the rules:
FWIW, I don’t think Hazel is the Boss, a Hit Man or the Capo.
Well, if we trust Koldanar (and I do), there was no recruitment, capo or otherwise, on the first night. So that would leave the only chance for you as of then to be scum is as the boss.
EBWOP: Wait - a night 2 recruitment would affect investigations on night 2 wouldn’t it?
OCS - How come?
There is definitely the possibility that Pleonast is town. After all, when I investigated him, I got a town result–it just wasn’t the town result that he had claimed. I could see perfectly good pro-town reasons for him to claim as he did, but I could not in good conscience hold back that info any longer, because if I was wrong, the game was lost because of me.