If we agree not to run scared after the first claim, perhaps you are correct. I fear that we will run scared and just induce more claims. I still think that since most of our powers are one use, mis-lynching later in the game will cost us much less than mis-lynching on D1. So, I think you are incorrect not every mis-lynch will cost us a power role, only mis-lynches Today will cost us a power role.
I realize that I am probably fighting a losing battle here, that town will probably not vote to no-lynch, but I am convinced that it is the statistically correct play. I think we always dismiss it out of hand, and especially in this game with no vanillas and a lot of one use powers that it would work in town’s favor.
I think, theoretically, a continued no-lynch can work to town’s favor. 19 players, if we assume 7 knives and three other weapons that’s ten total scum kills. Maximum, right? Maybe the carpenter can take out someone in town. I’m on my iPod so I’m not switching between screens to see. And even with a max of ten we can still save some by luck. But either way that brings us to and end game of 5 town and 4 scum and scum can’t kill anyone else. Am I correct on this? Someone tell me if I’m wrong but it seems like we can literally do nothing and wait out a…what? Win? Stalemate? I dunno.
I didn’t have a problem with Inner’s post. If the Day ends and that is the only type of post he has, then I would find that suspicious. That is why I said TexCat’s FOS was premature.
In mafia, I don’t really mind “me too” posts. Especially for important topics. It at least shows you are not trying to avoid the issues.
Different styles are probably good to have and I don’t have a problem with voting early. I don’t see the point to a vote with absolutely no justification, though, since it can just be safely ignored.
In regards to TexCat’s advocacy of a no-lynch: I haven’t tried to analyze the numbers or anything, but my first thoughts are that I am not comfortable giving away one of our opportunities to eliminate a scum. I might change my mind, though, once I think it through more. However, I don’t think the idea is completely ridiculous and I don’t see why the suggestion of it would point to TexCat being scum. It seems in my experience that scum are less likely to suggest out-of-the-mainstream ideas like this.
I find Visor somewhat more likely to be scum because of the possible slip, but as I said, I do believe it is possible that Town might make that mistake.
For now, I am going to
Vote Mahaloth
to try to get him into the game.
I am also suspicious of Mosier. I often consider different possibilities and get accused of trying to “hedge my bets” or “play both sides of the fence”. It is an easy but often effective attack.
And on refresh, I see this:
Well, I don’t like the idea of playing for a stalemate, since it just seems kind of pointless to be playing in that case. If we did no-lynch down to the 5-4 situation, that seems like a very powerful case for scum. In a normal 9 player game, you just start with 2 scum. This might be mitigated somewhat by the extra info we have gathered during the game, but I don’t think it would be enough. So, right now, I don’t advocate any no-lynches, but if we did have any, I think only the first Day would it be appropriate.
If the scum manage to nab the seraph they can win. With your strategy, the best we can hope for is a draw, whatever that means. No-lynch is lose-lose for town.
My attack was not pointing out that TexCat was considering different possibilities. If you reread TexCat’s post that prompted my attack, you’ll see that I was attacking the fact that TexCat was advocating what I consider an anti-town action (no-lynch) while also claiming suspicion of another player.
However, since then TexCat has made a better argument for a no-lynch. It’s enough to make me reconsider my suspicion, but not enough to actually agree with the strategy. No-lynch is a losing strategy, full stop. But I now think that TexCat probably made the argument for it in good faith.
my first review; unless otherwise noted below, you’ve not yet pinged my scumdar
In my, admittedly limited, experience, this isn’t true; while the dope is less of an offender than other boards I’ve visited, joke suspicions and votes on Day 1 are quite common.
:dubious:
In a game where everyone has a power, most of them one-shot, how exactly do you expect to test any claims? Person A claims, so we have Person B investigate them and confirm; but how do we know Person B is on the up-and-up? Continue, and we’ve burnt all our investigations to verify one claim.
The bulk of your posts revolve around of a lot “it could be this [town] or it could also be that [scum]” - hiding in plain site?
vote Alka Seltzer
I haven’t done the math (and to be honest, probably won’t, as it’s not my strong-suit and I’d probably just butcher it) but on it’s face, the idea of a deliberate no-lynch gives me the mafia heebee geebees.
That, and the fact that you seem to be a little too sympathetic to scum’s cause and potential tactics:
vote Enderw24
Me neither.
I’m having difficulty imagining why a townie would ask this question, care to clarify?
Because some of the reasons people have for suspecting someone is scum (such as, for instance, wondering about local terminology) makes newbies rather nervous about saying anything, for fear that phrasing something the wrong way will get us lynched.
Scum have more to lose than town by being careless, but sloppy town play is a gift to the scum. Players have to be held accountable for what they post, or scum always have an easy out - “I didn’t mean that”.
Not ignoring, I was waiting to see how Mosier and Texcat’s exchange developed. Mosier’s position in post #155 was reasonable, and I’m somewhat satisfied with TexCat’s response. Town often have a tendency to over-emphasize the importance of power roles.
I’m very strongly opposed to no-lynch as a policy, the vote and lynch is town’s greatest weapon. Right now, we have an odd number of players. A successful town block or protect would buy us another mis-lynch. Likewise, a single scum extra kill doesn’t not cost us a mis-lynch. No-lynch changes that equation in favour of scum.
Not what I said, I just said the difference between joke suspicions and real ones should be (and normally is) clear.
To be clear, I was going to vote Visorslash until I reviewed and found his previous post, which I thought was worth sharing.
@fubbleskag - And straight away there is a problem with your multiple votes. Right now, what is your preference, to lynch me, Enderw24 or a lurker? Do you intend to have multiple votes in place at the end of the Day?
Players pinging me a little right now:
Tengu - Could be scum over-playing the newbie card a little. Nothing wrong with asking questions, but is doing little else. When prompted, said TexCat was suspicious if FOS on Inner Stickler was genuine, but hasn’t followed this up in any way. Enderw24 - Fairly active, but only posting content on strategy. I notice from another thread that he is a chess player, and I’d expect him to realise why no-lynch is such a bad strategy. Visorslash - Previously noted possible slip, not as damning as I first thought. Don’t like his pre-emptive FOS on anyone wagoning him and his defence of posting style above (which has nothing to do with why he’s attracted attention in this game), but perfectly reasonable attack on TexCat. fubbleskag - Includes an obvious joke post in his case against Enderw24.
I did not, and will not, attempt to refute the ‘should be’ portion of your statement, as I happen to agree. My comment was simply that in my experience, your statement that it “normally is” isn’t true on Day 1.
Skimming much? I stated earlier that I agree with the consensus that only a single vote should remain at end of Day in most cases.
It didn’t seem obvious to me, especially in context of his posts as a whole. I suppose if it was a joke, perhaps he should have been more clear about that, don’t you think?
Alka Seltzer the fact that the only portion of my review that you commented on was a semantic one isn’t doing much to improve your rating; care to shed light on the rest?
I missed that. I don’t have a big problem with multiple votes right now, given the state of the game and the need to prod players into action. I do have a problem that it can hide intentions. I notice you’ve ignored my question, who is your actual preference for a lynch right now.
Not true, I also clarified my position on Visorslash. I’ll comment on the claims and confirmation issue later, it’s not a priority to me and I’m going out in a minute. I’m also waiting on storyteller’s reply to my query about the cloak. If it can be taken out of play, that changes the equation.
I’m not sure why you’re emphasizing “actual” as if only one of my votes is real and the others are meaningless. I’m voting everyone who pings me enough to warrant it, for a variety of reasons. Before end of Day, I’ll decide which ones get their vote removed for tally. If you’re asking who my final vote would be for if tally was right this minute, it would be yourself.
Your position on Visorslash isn’t the issue, only one of a few examples I quoted. You’re doing a lot of “he did this; it could be because he’s scum and this, or it could be because he’s town and that” which makes you look active but isn’t very helpful. Town doesn’t need someone pointing out all of the things people do that can be equally explained as both Town and Scum. You’ve also made other perplexingly obvious nothing statements, which were also previously quoted.
I actually think it would be cool, and kind of effective, if all the investigators investigate toNight. Let us know what you find in the morning(if you survive) and that way the power is not wasted.
Everyone using their power toNight? Huh, I guess that is kind of a possibility, I’m not totally against it, but I think it will be really hard to get us all to actually do that.
Vote Visorslash
The incorrect ratio thingy. And overall, I am just getting a scum vibe off him. That is my first vote, anyway.
That was what I wanted to know, and I’m going to keep asking this if people make multiple votes. As I stated before, it muddles the voting record. If, say, someone votes for two players, and one flips town and the other scum, how can we draw any meaningful conclusions from that?
To deal with the points you picked out:
“That’s how I see it. Stickler being helpful is a null town. Town motive: help town play better. Scum motive: look town. Likewise, I don’t make much of TexCat’s FOS. It’s weakly justified, but at this stage of the game some players need to be prepared to poke others.” - Was aimed at the new players, to introduce them to the term “null tell” (although I managed to bowdlerize it), and to give them some idea of what is expected on Day 1. After poking Tengu to give an opinion I thought it only fair to add my own.
@fubbleskag - Are you disagreeing with me that Inner Stickler providing a glossary of terms and TexCat’s FOS are null?
“Another problem with claiming results too early is scum can kill off any confirmed town.” - Confirmed or semi-confirmed town are more valuable in the mid to end game than early on. Often, if a player is confirmed or semi-confirmed early on, scum will just kill them off. I was specifically thinking about MHaye’s one-by-one investigation strategy at the time.
The odds of us fully confirming any town aren’t great, but there are various mechanisms that make it possible. As I said in a previous post, ultimately we will have to use our judgement when assessing any claims, and how they use their power is a data point, so they are a bit more useful than I was thinking.
@Fubbleskag - In post #133 you complain I’ve only answered part of your case. Why are you giving Enderw24 a free pass, when he made no attempt whatsoever to answer?
Eh. I’ve no strong opinion on the Investigators using their powers toNight*, but the others I don’t think so. The protective powers are nearly useless if cast blindly, and the Shipman’s attack worse than that - it’d be basically giving toDay 2 blind lynches**, both of which are most likely to hit Town, just by the numbers.
It’s a bit of a vicious circle, really - it’d be nice to have the information from the investigators, but will it really be useful information if they investigate without any information to go on? But how will they get the information if they don’t?
** Frankly, I’d rather see the actual lynching held off until we have some information, too. So…
Vote No Lynch
But since that’s not likely, and we’ve got multiple votes:
Vote Visorslash
He’s dangerous, IMO. Randomly aggressive out of the gate and far too cavalier about the possibility of a mislynch, especially with the strong odds of hitting an investigator that his mis-chosen ratio gave.
I’ve just gotten back from an impromptu two day Ikea run and am trying to catch up. Unfortunately I also installed some new software that is making my computer crash too. Hope I got that taken care of by uninstalling.
Well, to clarify, I didn’t say that I’m in favor of not lynching. I said “I think, theoretically, a continued no-lynch can work to town’s favor.” Mainly I was just sort of thinking out loud to see if others can help critique my line of thinking. The first thing I wasn’t sure about was whether a no-lynch strategy would lead to a win. It won’t. It will, at best, lead to a stalemate. At worst, I’m missing something crucial in our toolbox or we’ll misstep and town will end up losing. Not worth the risk, IMO, but I wanted to play it through in my head just to see.
Anyway, I agree with what someone said above. Why bother playing for a stalemate?
So no. I’m not in favor of a no-lynch. I’m really not in favor of a no-lynch for night one.
I agree with many of you that Visorslash**** has been intentionally confrontational and it’s not surprising he’s garnered the votes he has. But there’s something about the way Snickers has gone about trying to get us to hold off on D1 lynchings that’s been nagging at me for awhile.