I have read and caught up this morning. I think it is clear that one of these two is lying (and if one is a SK they could both be). I feel it is Silver Jan since I already distrusted her. So I am keeping my vote on her.
It also seems unlikely to me that Town would have a doc, a hider, a bodyguard, and a roleblocker. If we do have a roleblocker, then I think that makes the other claims even more suspicious than they already are.
Okay, now that I’ve fired off that reply, I have some time to show my breadcrumbs. This is gonna be long (yes, even by my standards) so I’m gonna spoiler tag it.
From #296 at the start of Night 1:
Note that Inner Stickler replied and wondered if I was hiding a power role. He had me sussed. 
Next, from http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14559528&postcount=690#650:
[spoiler]OH by the way, I have a question, which funnily enough was broached by my sister, who’s never played a game of Mafia in her life. (In fact she’s not really a game player at all.) Anyway, I was trying to explain the rules to her, including all the various roles, and mentioned the role of Serial Killer being sort of his/her own team. Then she asked me a question that I realize I have no freakin’ idea about:
In games with SKs, do Scum players know who the SK is, and vice versa?
For that matter (this question’s my own), does the SK ever kill Mafia folks? Seems to me that if the answer to the first question is “no,” then the SK has a good incentive to kill Mafia just as much as Townies. [/spoiler]
Still trying to feel my way around this roleblocker thing. However, after Night 2’s lack of result on Guiri, I posted in [url-http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14565096&postcount=736]#736 my suspicions narrowing on Scathach and Svejk, rather than Guiri:
[spoiler]Scathach herself: hasn’t done much scumhunting, in fact doing more to protect Svejkb than to protect either herself or hunt out any other players. Which is why I lean toward options #3 (if she’s snuggling) or #4 (if she’s protecting either a regular scumbuddy or a scum power role whom she deems more “important” than herself).
(snip)
GuiriEnEspana, for reasons unknown, does not strike me as scum, although again his repeatedly asking questions from days ago (and not linking to them, which isn’t very helpful) shows either a terrier-like stubbornness to dig at the truth, or a pretty clever scum ploy to put everyone on the defensive and thereby avoiding the spotlight shining on himself. If he is scum, he’s damn good. Ditto Town, for that matter.
I think that’s everyone. Looking at my not-very-well backed-up summaries above, I would be most tempted to vote for Scathach, Svejk, fluiddruid and fubbleskag. And maybe Mahaloth but I can’t trust myself enough to say whether there’s some subconscious OMGUSing urging me to vote for him.[/spoiler]
Now even at that point, despite my apparent lack of any result after blocking Guiri, I wasn’t ready to toss him off the scum list. He could’ve just been vanilla with no powers to block. Still, I was feeling a lot better about him after Night 2.
#958 I rather coyly wonder why there was no NK. Trying to avoid looking like the blocker while still uncertain whether the lack of NK was due to my own actions, hence my asking:
Only one death though. Why was toNight different from all other Nights? (Sounds like the Passover question…) Was the apparent vig / serial killer blocked or just absent?
Later in the day, #1000, I try to pin down whether–assuming my block of Scathach is why we had no 2nd killing on Night 3–I’d blocked a vig or an SK:
[spoiler]Sorry to double post (maybe it wouldn’t have been a double-post if y’all weren’t being so quiet…) but as I was working on my chart, I got up to the Day 2 section and sort of had a mini-revelation. Maybe.
septimus, after he claimed Doc, invited the Vig to shoot at him to prove he’s really a doctor.
Night happens.
Astral Rejection is dead, clearly by the scum. Oh, and orcenio is killed.
Why on earth wouldn’t the Vig have tested septimus’s claim? This would have helped us quite a bit (although not so much if septimus is some scum bulletproof role).
Likely answer: Because the shooter didn’t want to waste a bullet to help Town prove anything.
More specific answer: Because s/he wanted to shoot at someone so the death would definitely happen. Even if the death was more likely to hit Town than Scum so early in the game.
Conclusion: We don’t have a Vig. We have a Serial Killer. Q.E.D.
Thoughts? [/spoiler]
In #1027 I make a case and vote Scathach, as well as place a breadcrumb to look at her if I’m killed:
[spoiler]I’ll let y’all in on a little secret about my basic plan, though I’d’ve thought it wasn’t a secret: In case y’all couldn’t tell, I’ve been going after the three other Inner Stickler voters, because I am 95% certain that at least one of 'em is scum. Guiri 's clear, obviously; I said at the time I was getting a town vibe from him. Omitting myself for obvious reasons, that leaves Svejk and Scathach. Most people found Svejk’s vote-switch the scummier of the two, as did I, which is why I maintained my vote on him yesterDay.
But I’m beginning to feel differently. I also look at the gnarlycharlie voters. Who are the folks who voted for him, and is there any crossover? Why yes, there is: Guiri (confirmed town) and Scathach (status unknown). Indeed, Scathach was the first vote on both of 'em, if I remember correctly.
I’m getting pinging up the wazoo (and it’s not as enjoyable as you’d think!). I think it’s possible – not definite but possible – that Scathach bussed gnarlycharlie to rid herself of the stench of the Inner vote. (Frankly it wouldn’t surprise me if there were more than one scum among the gnarlycharlie voters, but that’s for another day.)
So why did she vote Inner and then gnarly? Well, I hate to go back to the murder mystery analogy, but for those of you who are fans: y’know how in serial killer novels, it’s quite often the case where the killer murders a bunch of other people for whom s/he has no real animus, but uses their deaths as a cover-up to obscure the motive for wanting the one real victim dead?
That’s what I think we have haer. I think gnarlycharlie was bussed to cover up for Scathach’s vote on Inner. At least, I think it’s possible, and I’d like to take a few RL days to consider it.
Now, I could be going after septimus, whose role I’m simply not sold on 100% and who’s been tarring me (rather ineffectively, IMHO). Similarly, I could be going after Mahaloth, whose behavior this game has been erratic and he has yet to explain what his problem with me is except for the oh-so-nebulous “tone.” Heck, I could be going after Silver Jan who had the nerve to call me opinionated. ( just kidding, I actually find that a compliment since IRL I’m wuss city.)
But no. I’m going after someone I genuinely feel could be scum, or possibly third party – either way, not Town. All the hairs on the back of my neck get all prickly around Scathach, and though my instincts have certainly been wrong, I’m gonna go with 'em a third time and see if that’s the charm.
vote Scathach
If you do lynch me toDay, guys, and I’m serious here: don’t worry about septimus even if he’s the one to lead me to the gallows. Look on Scathach very carefully. [/spoiler]
In #1031 I become a little more explicit, after getting distracted by my monomania on septimus; I explain why I’m sticking with Scathach and again breadcrumb by getting my vote “on the record”:
[spoiler]The reason I’m not voting for him is twofold:
because it’s also possible he’s doc but just made a mistake (IMHO) in claiming so crazy early. He’ll never admit it, although if he did he’ll actually gain some respect/Town Cred with me. Not that it matters since he allegedly thinks I’m scum.
more importantly, Scathach is my choice for today’s vote. Sure, no one else is gonna vote for her, and I’ll probably be lynched or killed, but I want this vote on the record if it’s the last (or at least second-to-last) thing I do before I swing or get the axe. [/spoiler]
Anyway that’s all I have time for. I have no idea what’s happening out there while I’m composing this message… hopefully you’ve seen the light.
you can say that again
Oh btw I didn’t include the subject line of my PM. It was “11-26-2011 Role PM (mafia)” FWIW.
I love Silver Jan’s reasoning in her most recent post. She thinks we should just take it on faith that she is Town Roleblocker, and makes this logical argument: “Well I blocked you, Choie, so if you had really blocked Scathach there would’ve been no Night Kill.” You’re forgetting your lie, Silver Jan. Your story is that I’m the serial killer (or vig), remember? So why do you suddenly think that Scathach is?
Vote count
Silver Jan (3) - Mental Guy (1049), [del]Hirka (1058-1150)[/del], [del]Scathach (1072-1151)[/del], Choie (1088), Švejk (1160)
Choie (3) - Mahaloth (997), Septimus (1010), Silver Jan (1135)
Mahaloth (1) - Fubbleskag (1085)
Fubbleskag (1) - [del]Švejk (994-1160)[/del], [del]Silver Jan (1006-1135)[/del], Special Ed (1070)
Special Ed (1) - [del]Scathach (1007-1072)[/del], Scathach (1151)
Scathach (0) - [del]Choie (1027-1088)[/del]
Septimus (0) - [del]Hirka (968-1048)[/del], [del]FluidDruid (970-1066)[/del]
Not voting: PCM, FluidDruid, Hirka
I don’t think Scathach is, you do. I think you are the SK and are trying to get away with it. If Scathach was the SK and you were blocked, surely your block on her wouldn’t have worked? Therfore her NK would have gone through.
NETA if Scathach is the SK as you are saying.
Crap, there is thunder and lightening just about overhead (check the Johannesburg weather report if you don’t believe me) I don’t want to lose my little laptop when I have just had Win 7 put on it and it’s working like a dream.
Thanks, Svejk. I think I’m getting my just reward for bitching about septimus’s claiming to early. Dramatic irony, gotta love it!
As I’ve said all along, though, what matters is a Town win, not my own survival. I am presumably one of the only two power roles left, and even if I survive past the lynch, I highly doubt I will survive the Night. With a presumptive SK on the loose along with Scum, there’s no one to protect me from either side. I suppose if septimus protects me while I block Scathach, this puts him in danger, but does at least provide more info. If he continues to self-protect I’m toast, but at least we still have a doctor.
Anyway, if I am lynched or NKed, you’ve at least got Silver Jan pegged as scum* and Scathach ID’ed as a likely SK. So at least my death will be informative for Town. That’s pretty much all one can hope for in this game, right?
if the doctor claim is legit, that is.
everything has tripped gotta go for a bit til this passes
Yeah, that makes two of us. She’s so certain we’ll believe she’s the Town Roleblocker who blocked me that she’s opining that Scathach would’ve NKed because I blocked her but failed because of Silver Jan’s block.
It’s enough to make your eyes bleed.
Let’s say I grant her supposition. Is it at all possibe there are two Town Roleblockers? In a game of this size? With previously known power roles of a bodyguard, cop, and doctor?
At work, so quickly, I believe choie more then silver.
vote silver jan
Well, yeah, which as you know I’m not really 100% sold on, especially since the truth (whether one believes me or Silver Jan) is out that we have a bodyguard, cop and roleblocker. That seems a little overbalanced to me, but then again, if we have a Serial Killer, Town does need to be a little more buffed in order to even things out against the Scum (at least if I’m reading various “how to balance your Mafia game” sites correctly).
Thanks, Hirka.
However, looking at the remaining folks who could swing the vote further in either direction, I’m probably in trouble. Serves me right for burning my bridges with septimus and Mahaloth, as they’re unlikely to unvote me. And Scathach will probably switch to me. That leaves special ed and fluiddruid to break the resulting tie, the latter of whom is probably going to miss EOD. Not sure if special ed is around.
Just gonna point out that even if you are town and telling the truth, I’m still not any sort of power role. I’m vanilla town.
Actually, I’m happy to leave it a tie - I don’t know which of ye to believe.
dundundundundundundun
20 Minutes until end of day
Vote Count:
Silver Jan (4): Mental Guy, choie, Svejk, Hirka T’Bawa
choie (3): Mahaloth, Septimus, Silver Jan
fubbleskag (1): Special Ed
Special Ed (1): Scathach
Mahaloth (1): fubbleskag
Oh, it’s not actually a tie.
** unvote special ed
[color=blue]vote choie**
DAMMIT
** vote choie **