It’s bothering me how blithely everyone seems to be accepting the notion that
a. There is a Godfather
b. It must be one of the investigated players
c. It’s our highest priority.
I don’t necessarily agree with either of those things - and assuming 2 scum left, then one of the uninvestigated players MUST be scum, possibly 2, whereas 1 of the investigated players MAY be scum.
So as far I’m concerned, septimus’s insistence that we have to start lynching the people Hirka investigated as town is just another black mark against him.
Slightly beating a dead horse here, I thought that there was likely to be at least one scum bussing gnarly for town cred. Now of those only special ed and me are still alive. I still find ed suspicious for that reason (and previously for voting fubbles but I will note that (as ed pointed out) I was wrong on the fubbleskag vote being “too easy” because some of fubbles more unusual play choices hadn’t happened yet).
It may be a preconceived notion though, because I don’t think there were people bussing Silver Jan largely because Svejk has come across townie to me.
That does sound like confirmation bias to me, doesn’t it?
gnarly must have been bussed and only you and I remain out of his voters, but Silver Jan wasn’t bussed even though choie and Svejk were voting for her.
And in looking at post 1282 which has a summary of those votes, I actually put gnarly into a tie for the lead with Mahaloth while your vote was a one-off at the time with both fubbles and Svejk ahead of gnarly when you cast your vote.
[oog] You know, I’d love to try playing Mafia over IM sometime - I always want to get into big discussions while I’m online but message board posting is slow. [/oog]
That’s quite a different thing. 2 people are talking about it, and 1 with much more certainty than he should. That’s hardly everyone endorsing it as fact
You’re not wrong. The difference is that I’ve had a town lean on Svejk ever since the vote switch for the reasons I’ve stated before (knowing I’m town his switch makes no sense as scum). It’s not very fair, but apart from septimus, most of my suspects at this stage are driven mainly by eliminating those I think are town and going from there.
(also, my vote was the bandwagon-starter on gnarly and it was early enough in Day that I don’t think things like who-is-lynch-leader is so very important)
Alternatively, it was early enough in the Day that you didn’t think it would gain traction.
And your case against gnarly (in post 745) containted this assessment
after quoting some of his posts.
I remember being swayed not by that, but by guiri’s case summarized by:
in post 784. Followed by in post 800 by gnarly and 806 by guiri
With the vote still Mahloth 3, Svejk 3, and gnarly 2, I unvoted Svejk and pushed gnarly into a tie simulataneously with fluid’s vote for Svejk, creating a 3 way tie which Hirka broke by unvoting Svejk and voting gnarly. Fluid then followed suit.
If you re-read the chaos, you’ll see I could have directed the voting almost anyway. I certainly could have gotten Svejk lynched, as Hirka and fubbles were both leaning that way.
If you recall those early days at all, I think you’ll doubt that Svejk and I are likely to have known we were on the same team (Scum-Scum as opposed to S-T, T-S, or T-T) with the ferocity we went after each other (WiFoM, I know)
PS, post 850 and 851 by guiri rasie intersting questions about a currently alive players (1 cop cleared)
Mind you, I don’t like the way you phrased this. It’s a bit smudgy. Either you didn’t actually bother to go back and check who Hirka investigated, or you just want us all to go “You know, he’s right, special ed hasn’t been investigated”.
I’ve taken the time to gather most of the postings by Scathach. This post will therefore be quite long – but just quotes with little comment. This should include most of scathach’s posts except the most recent, as well as a few posts by svejk and choie.
She seems more concerned with defending herself, than advancing her own scum cases.
She joins the bandwagon against Idle. This is her first major post of the game.
Švejk votes for Scathach:
Another post devoted to self-defense. (And again, Svejk’s work is outstanding.) So scathach has provided essentially no scum-hunting help, except against Stickler. Most of her posts have been devoted to self-defense. Sounds like a Scum tell.
But is it really? I can sympathize with scathach since I fall under suspicion for similar reasons essentially every game that I’m Town including this one!
Svejk does make a convincing case though, especially as an uncoached rookie. Indeed maybe my “Scum would never let their rookie be so brilliant” meme has gone wrong, and Svejk is, after all, the Scum mastermind.
In this post she points FOS at guiri and choie. guiri was Town of course, and choie probably too. Bad luck? Or inside info?
She saves choie!!
Equivocating like this, while she’s Scum? Great acting?
My conclusion: She points FOS at people who are Townie, spends much effort defending herself. Saving choie could have been a calculated gamble – after all it’s 50% to give the same result. I don’t see any blatant tells, but on balance, she seems likely to be scum. (But I’m still suspicious of Mahaloth, partly for his lack of participation. If mahaloth is Scum, who is his partner? Svejk?)
It is not mandatory to Lynch one of the “Godfather candidates” toDay. But even if we Lynch other than this pair and catch Scum, we’ll still be at Lynch or Lose toMorrow, and I’m still not sure which of {scathach, mahaloth} is the “cleared” Godfather and which the true Vanilla. Yes, it isn’t certain one of these two is Godfather, but I find both of them suspicious ( :smack: ) so at this point would be quite surprised if the Godfather isn’t one of them.
Hi everyone. I’m still not back. But I’ve carved out a little bit of time to post. Not that I have much to say - I find things far to confusing at this point to really make very definite statements. Either way, FWIW, I am leaning towards thinking that with 4 town power claims already being confirmed, and one scum power claim also confirmed, I actually find it unlikely that there are still a godfather and two town powers out-and-about. A less power-heavy game with more vanilla seems much more newb-friendly and thus more likely.
This means a few things to me
No godfather - so those players that **HTB **confirmed are most likely actually confirmed - so that’s **Scathach **and Mahaloth.
At least one of **Septimus’s **and **Choie’s **claims is false.
So assuming four scum and an SK as over against 15 town, and assuming that **FSK **was right about **PCM **being the SK, that leaves two vanilla scum amongst Choie, Ed, and Septimus. Given these assumptions, I am more inclined to let **Choie **off the hook, I guess, although I am not completely convinced that her claim is legit. On the whole, she’s seemed more town than Septimus. I’d be wholly prepared to accept finding out that she’s been pulling the wool over our collective eyes by carefully building up her roleblocker claim, leaving bread crumbs, agonizing over what to do. In particular, I have found her insistence that we tell her what to do and share our info with her suspicious. Explaining that she was on her own because helping her in public would be helping scum just as much, and would thus nullify the use of her power, has not helped - she’s still all woe-is-me. Then there was her insistence that she was the only one mistrusting Septimus, and her belief that I find her ‘despicable’, when both are clearly false. Neither really matter, but in both cases I have thought that she sows confusion by willfully stating falsehoods. But then again, a similar litany of complaints may be wrought on the basis of Septimus’s playing, and he’s been much less active than Choie, keeping his head down, which I guess makes me incline towards finding his claim less likely legit than Choie’s
Clearly I am still on the fence about whose claim I find the least trustworthy. It would take some more time, going over the posts that have accumulated in the past couple of Days more carefully to come up with a more proper assessment. So, seeing as
I am still unresolved on whether Choie, or Septimus, or both are not to be trusted, and won’t have time to figure out which one it is before EoD
the loss of misslynching anyone of them is higher than the loss of misslynching a vanilla townie like Special Ed
there is already a vote in for Ed, which with about 24 hours to go and the game going as slowly as it is can be substantial
I’ve found **Ed’s **play on the whole to have been fairly useless to town, something that I’ve pointed out on several occasions and which has resulted in me voting for **Ed **twice (I believe)
I am more than happy to believe that **Ed **is scum and I will therefore
not only that, but how many of us are still alive?
Svejk
Choie
Septimus
mahaloth
Scathcah
Special Ed
Did I forget someone? Because that’s 6. We’re all out of lurkers and non-posters, right?
If there are 2 Scum, we’re at lynch or lose. So a mislynch of anyone is a bad move. If the Scum succeed in killing, then we’re finished.
Now, if PCM was Scum, then this isn’t lynch or lose, but that’s probably not a risk we should be taking at this point.
I’m quite certain that the scum know this.
And, again, here’s an accusation I cannot argue against. I’m useless. I could make the same case against Svejk. I 've found his play to be useless and even voted for him a couple of times.
However, I’m aware that we’re in a dangerous spot. So I’m not willing to just cast a vote.
And, as I’ve hinted at before, even with the worry that we have a godfather, I’m unwilling to lynch Mahaloth or Scathach toDay, because it’s more likely that there is a Scum who isn’t a godfather still in the game (it could be that PCM was one of 4 Scum and Mahaloth or Scathach are a godfather, but even in that case, we needn’t worry about it toDay)
I’ve been waiting for a Scum to come in an make an opportunistic vote, and I think this one was it. Not sure if I can convince anyone of that, but I’m willing to discuss it
We’ve had a slip ! This ending has become almost delicious.
I’ve been trying to rank the seven of you in order of probable scumminess. I had mahaloth at the top, special ed, scathach and Svejk all roughly tied at neutral, and have been treating choie as cleared Townie.
My new rankings, in order of Scumminess, are:
Svejk. Plays a brilliant role as Townie, allegedly a rookie, posts long pro-Town-seeming analyses (though choie and others have expressed suspicion). Except for the 3rd vote on Silver Jan, her voting record is unpersuasive. I’m beginning to think choie was right about the Svejk/scathach dichotomy, but on reread it is still not scathach who I find suspicious.
mahaloth. His contributions are few; his comments and voting record anti-Town.
special ed. Some of his comments seem peculiar, hence anti-Town. Yet both voting record and comments are strongly pro-Town.
scathach. As Svejk showed, scathach’s play early in the game was anti-Town. Since then scathach’s votes have been very good. I can’t happily take up an anti-Scathach case so similar to cases used incorrectly against me.
choie. Strong Town read. Her claim would be weird if untrue.
“I am more than happy to believe.” This is almost like a subjunctive mood. Belief follows from evidence, thought, probabilities. You don’t believe something to make yourself happy. Unless the “belief” is pretence, with the sentence almost a subjunctive.
“I am happy to vote Ed” or “I’m inclined to believe Ed is scum” would be normal language, but “I am more than happy to believe” is, in English, the diction one adopts for something you don’t believe, but want to “believe” or that it would make you “happy to believe” it for the purpose of a post in a Mafia game.
I caught this, because I made a similar slip as Godfather in the D’en’dee game, using subjunctive mood, waited in fear, but no one spotted it.
Vote: Švejk
I’m pretty confident about this now. I want his points (1) and (2) remembered when he flips Scum.
I was quite proud of myself. It’s the first time I made a case that got scum lynched. Or so I thought.
This ending has become almost delicious.