Great googly-moogly. It took me an hour to slog through everything posted since last night and take notes accordingly.
First off, I would like to point out that non-scum lurkers give scum the opportunity to make night-kills that don’t give away anything. Information can be gleaned from deaths, but not if the dead person has left nothing for the survivors to work with.
Mal’s reasoning for voting for zuma, and the way zuma shrugs it off, both seem rather odd to me. People have already voiced their suspicions of Mal, but I find zuma’s reaction - or lack thereof - just as strange. No protest? No poking at Mal’s incredibly shaky reasoning?
Also, NAF, the way you dismissed MtS’s over-reaction as “that’s just his playing style” and Mal’s flawed reasoning as “that’s so obvious a scum-tell that it couldn’t be a scum-tell,” plus the way you justify certain scum tells by your own past experience as scum seems suspicious to me. It serves to confuse newer players (like myself) and seems to be steering towards expectations that scum will behave a certain way, although someone has already pointed out that even among scum, individual behavior can vary wildly. Not to mention that the scum have no set strategy at this point, since they haven’t had any opportunity to convene yet.
All right…time to catch up and then stay in the topic the rest of the day (if I can…and I certainly hope).
Actually, just a minor correction…that was technically M4.
What the heck?! This doesn’t even come from out of left field…this just comes out of thin air. Color me confused not only at your vote but your reasoning for it.
And added: I see many others have picked up on this. Just…wow. The logic there boggles.
Ahhhh…feels so good to be back to the start of order of things. More of these type posts, please.
I was getting a lot of meter trips from Clockwork so that carried on to Kyrie understandably being as it’s her replacement. So I’m keeping an eye there too.
As for NAF, I honestly don’t know what to think yet. I think him being scum would be a very dangerous thing though because he’s so posty and analytical. That goes for anyone of that nature, however, including myself. How easy would it be for someone like that to be one of the most prolific posters in the topic?
The heat on Hal puzzles me, on the other hand. Sure pro-scum MIGHT be able to see a hidden code from Apprentice to Oracle, but it could be something as simple as just quoting a post and agreeing with them. I’ve learned, if anything, in this game that you can’t underestimate how smart or sneaky people can be.
And I have no reads, good or bad, on Captain Klutz at all.
One person I do have a strong read on is Pasta, who I’m still looking at :dubious:
Snipped.
Correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t the Alchemist a non-believer? But doesn’t s/he also have the power to possibly HELP against the cultists? From what I read of the role, s/he can block things…which includes kills made by scum…?
Boy, you’re all over the place, aren’t you? You strike me as someone who has a huge secret but can’t seem to sit on it well and are straining at the seams to reveal it.
Boy, you have it easy then, don’t you? Me, I’m worried about all of the seeming major differences in a opinion this game has right now. Seems at least four or five separate ones. And to a player like me, who always feels the need to analyze everything, it gets me paranoid.
So…to sum up. What do I have and think so far? Well Pasta and Mal are the people who I’m most suspicious of right now. Pasta a bit more, based on that whole “willing to kill off people who aren’t posting” reply. And Mal for that completely “WTF” vote on zuma?
NAF is all over the place and hitting on a lot of things. Trying hard not to leave an easy trail to follow? Plus, as others have pointed out, you’re being slightly inconsistant again with your voting and thoughts, voting for some (like AZteach) yet giving Mal the benifet of the doubt, seemingly, in the same post.
So many fights and major disagreements going on. How many are real? How many are staged? How many are real for one half but staged for the other? We have NAF and AZteach, USCDiver and sachertorte, Pleonast and just about everyone. If this is any hint to how the rest of the game will go, this is going to be mind draining.
But in any case, other than NAF, none of the above have pinged my meter HEAVILY.
I say heavily because Pleonast has had some with his whole jr hosting thing he seems to have been doing earlier and sachertorte based on all the eagerness to juice as much info as possible about the Apprentice and Oracle. Both are starting to fade, though.
That being said, Clockwork tripped my meter some early on and the new-in Kyrie hasn’t done much to help, but hasn’t worsened it any either.
And finally, (and this isn’t a suspicion just something I found amusing) the whole way that zuma was like “Thank you sir, may I have another!” to Mal’s voting for him made me chuckle.
Anyway, in the end, Pasta wins out with my vote for now, for our whole exchange last night and the reasons stated a few times by me.
It occurs to me that I should state why I don’t read Malacandra’s verbiage as scummy. To me the statements look more like stream of consciousness rambling than anything else. Plus the explicit statement that scum would do the same thing kind of neutralizes the effect of the whole paragraph. Kind of a blah blah blah, oh yeah, silly me, scum would do that too.
Essentially, it looks like a random vote.
Why am I getting all the heat for the Oracle/Apprentice discussion? Sure I started the discussion with a theory. A theory that goes nowhere near identifying who the Oracle or Apprentice are. People argue that indirectly it does and that’s fine, I accept the criticism even though I don’t fully agree with it. Why no suspicions of the people who were suggesting that the Apprentice random vote for the Oracle? This explicitly reveals roles which I think is much much worse than a secret, communication-less coordination strategy.
I did not advocate for the Apprentice to vote for, or FOS, or do anything to identify the Oracle. I argued against it. Some people argued that my plan is just as bad (or worse) than an obfuscated but **public **record of the Apprentice pointing out the Oracle; but I don’t follow that logic at all. I’m trying to let it all go, but if I’m going to be held to the fire because of what I said, then those that advocated the Oracle finds the Apprentice plan should be as well. Why has no one pointed to these people as detrimental to the town?
Well, again, you’re not high on my personal list at all. You’re fading. I guess it was just that, at the time, you seemed to be the main person who was just kinda drawing everyone else into the discussion because of your questions and theories and ideas and stuff. Since then, though, it’s eased off. I can only speak for myself, of course.
Seriously? You don’t think it’s possible that someone who is scum would disguise their vote in terms of “yeah, I know scum would do that too, but whatever”?
Idle Thoughts, you obviously have a different read on zuma’s reaction than I do, because I was thinking that zuma’s reaction was a bit too subdued. Granted, it could be a philosophical shrug to what looks like a random vote, but Mal’s reasoning was so ridiculous I was surprised that zuma didn’t even take a stab at it. I’m not sure what to make of that.
Idle Thought’s voting for Pasta reminded me what I found so suspicious about Pasta - the call for lurker power-roles to gradually surface so they wouldn’t draw attention, rather than surfacing suddenly (if they are lurking at all). It seems like an attempt to trace potential power-roles among the lurkers by coaxing them into a particular pattern of behavior.
Ack, I have to go to work! I won’t be able to post much until tomorrow morning, so here’s my initial vote:
Vote MadTheSwine.
I am going to stick with my first suspicions, although I am still waiting for **Mad ** to come in and explain himself. In the meantime I need to think a bit on my other doubts concerning the posters mentioned above.
This is a good point, but the strategy would be structured so that pro-town roles don’t stand out, and anti-town roles do. How exactly needs more defining, but I think it’s possible, especially in a game of this size. We’ve had the germs of one throughout the various games we’ve played on the SDMB. Some components of it are the lying low and then telling all behavior of the investigative roles(compare and contrast the back-breaking effect of the Oracle in Werewolf versus the high-profile(and rapidly dead) Detective in MII). The Beat Cop sowed tons of confusion in MII, and almost certainly lead to two townie deaths directly(unintentionally, but still directly). Since our Apprentice is essentially a beat cop, until either the Oracle finds him/her or the Oracle dies, the Apprentice should hang tight and try not to give themselves away, even moreso than the Oracle. Similarly, the Crusader should not reveal himself/herself if possible, and the town shouldn’t try to micromanage the Crusader without having a reliable read on who the Crusader should wack and why(such as an Oracle saying X is Cult). One of the fundamental truths of large Mafia games is that the scum can’t win in a reasonable amount of time(which is essential when working against detectives) without help from the town. They can’t reduce the town’s numbers fast enough unless they can sway lynches(subtly, but still, it’s a necessary part of scum strategy if they hope to reduce the townies to a manageable level before the detective fingers them all). So if we can define a general strategy for the town then someone trying to steer the votes towards a lynch without a strong case behind it would stand out. Basically the town agrees not to move without strong evidence. We resist the bandwagon effect because that allows a charismatic, or persuasive, Cultist to guide the dunks.
These are just germs of ideas, and I would need help to develop them, but I think there can be a uniting strategy. Any such strategy would almost certainly need to incorporate the above elements. If we want to discuss more specifics, here is a couple suggestions.
Firstly, don’t be afraid of a no dunk. Especially in the information-free early game. We’ll almost certainly take down a townie because there are enough scum right now to subtly guide dunk bandwagons. The first Days are big ones for the scum because they have a huge advantage. But, in a game with information roles, they can’t race without the town’s help. If the town doesn’t dunk, then we’re only down one(maybe two, depending on how the Crusader plays) person at the end of the first day/night cycle. This puts pretty much all our eggs in the Oracle/Apprentice basket, but somehow it seems more civilized. Let the cops find the scum and then let society take them out. If the scum find the cops first, then we revert to lawlessness, but it doesn’t have to be our first resort.
With potentially two Oracles, this game is a double threat to the Cult. Imagine if the Apprentice roleclaimed now, and the Priest started protecting him/her and the Disciple starts protecting the Priest, since he/she knows who the Priest is. The Monks all claim, reducing the number pool of investigation targets for the Apprentice. Then the town votes no dunk and the Crusader skips his night kill. The Oracle could investigate the claimed Apprentice night 1, and then on Day 2 we’ve got a 60% confidence level in what the Apprentice pronounces(and of course the Apprentice simply says “Name - Pro-Town” or “Name - Anti-Town”, but we still don’t dunk. Night 2 the Crusader is due to kill, with 100% certainty. The protective roles won’t block this kill because they’re protecting the Apprentice and/or Priest. So the Crusader kills the person fingered by the Apprentice(if they’re a Non-Believer) or whoever they feel is the most scummy, if the Apprentice uncovered town. But basically what we’re doing is buying time for the Oracle to train the Apprentice and then break the Cult slowly with deliberate investigation versus mob mentality. We’d have probably six full days worth of time for the investigations if we don’t dunk and the Crusader sticks to an every-other-night schedule. This is more than enough time for our investigators to find enough names to break the Cult’s back.
Day 1 - No Dunk
Night 1 - Town goes to 22(if there are seven Cultists) or 21(if there are eight) a 2.5/22 or 2.5/23 chance of losing either the Oracle, Priest, or Disciple(the .5 is because the Disciple is protecting the Priest and his protection may fail). Crusader doesn’t kill.
Day 2 - No Dunk - Town gets a name/affiliation pair from the Apprentice. 20/28(or 20 minus number of Monks / 28 - number of Monks if they Monks are willing to go along) are the odds that we get a pro-town name, and we’ve got 60% certainty on it.
Night 2 - Town goes to 21, 20 or 19(depending on how many cultists and if the Crusader hit town or Cult) 5/20 chance the Priest, Disciple, or Oracle bites it, because there are two kills and the Crusader could hit any of them too. Crusader can’t risk doubling up on the protected Apprentice because that would negate their protection.
Day 3 - Town gets another Name - affiliation pair from the Apprentice. 18/26 chance of being town, 70% certainty. No dunk.
Night 3 - Town goes to 20, 19 or 18. 2.5/19 chance the Priest, Disciple, or Oracle bites it.
Day 4 - Town gets another Name - affiliation pair. 17/25 chance of being town, 80% certainty. No dunk.
Night 4 - Town goes to 18, 17, or 16. 5/18 chance the Priest, Disciple, or Oracle bites it.
Day 5 - Town gets another Name - affiliation pair. 16/25 chance of being town, 80% certainty. No dunk.
Night 5 - Town goes to 17, 16, or 15. 2.5/16 chance the Priest, Disciple, or Oracle bites it.
Day 6 - Town gets another Name - affiliation pair. 16/25 chance of being town, 80% certainty.
Now the Apprentice has investigated five times, with 60, 70, 80, 80, and 80% accuracy. Plus he/she knows who the Oracle is. If the Monks jump in and deflect potential investigations away from their fellow Monks, then assuming nearly worst case scenario where the Crusader has killed town every time and we’ve never found Cult with an investigation, we now have Monks + four nights of Oracle results + the Apprentice’s investigations. That’s probably about sixteen players, out of the twenty-three which would be alive on Day 6 under this scenario, that we know the orientation of with reasonable confidence(four monks, four Oracle results, the Apprentice(who knows the Oracle and can validate his/her claim) and the five Apprentice investigations. That should be enough to make a Cult win impossible. If we find Cult along the way(and we probably will) then we can eliminate them via the Crusader. That’s roughly twice as many known, and trustable, pro-town people as there might be Cultists left. From there we just have to find the Prophet, who can’t be investigated sucessfully, and possibly the convert. Worst case scenario at that point, start dunking non-Monks(since they can’t be converted, they’re trustworthy the whole way through.
So by minimizing the number of non-Cult kills we can reduce the chances of the Oracle and Apprentice being collateral damage.
The obvious way to respond to this for the Cult is to pretend to be the Apprentice and string us along while killing everyone at night, but if there is a way to pass encrypted data between the Apprentice and the Oracle, then this doesn’t work. Second best response would be for them to kill Monks, making the end game more difficult because we’ll have a bunch of trusted townies with a Prophet(and probably a convert) hiding among them, reading as “Believer”, but even that would be two Cultists among 16 townies, and those are long odds for the Cult.
There are lots of ways this could be deviated from, of course. Still, we’re humans and that’s another word for adaptable. If we lost the Oracle early we’d need to continue it for a couple more Days(at that point our Apprentice becomes an Oracle, or near enough) to get an overwhelming number of confirmed Town. Losing the Priest would hurt, having him/her protected by the Disciple should help some. If we find Non-Believers with the boosted Apprentice we could let the Crusader take them out, so we’re less likely to take out the Oracle, Priest, or Disciple with the pro-town night kill. Make the Cultists work for the power role kills.
And now that I’ve written all this I’m worried about my participation in this game. I’m a puzzle solver by nature and I’m not sure I can turn that part of me off to play the game versus try to solve it. The “use an algorithm” approach I mentioned a couple pages back I think would work well mathematically for the town, but it would kill the fun, and Blaster Master might never forgive me if I “broke” his game. The approach I just laid out would be more interactive and still have some strategic depth, but not nearly as much. On top of it all, I’m pretty sure I owe SnakesCatLady a dose of headache medicine by now.
My first plan, using a transparent algorithm to generate random votes, would have negated the ability of the scum to manipulate their votes. So no one is ever “trusted” no matter how well they assimilate. Anyone can end up in the dunking chair, on any day. Monks can claim their way out of it, as can the Priest and Oracle(and whichever one ends revealed had better be the Priest’s target for protection for a while). I’m not arguing for this plan because it’s no fun, but it would almost certainly work. As for our epistemology, I never said we should try to do it without the assistance of power roles. They’re critical to our success. We should have a way to help them, like I mention at the beginning of this post. Let them lie low and do their jobs. Don’t allow bandwagons because that’s how Cultists end up helping with dunking townies.
Ok here is my thinking on this. It sucks for you, and people like you, that I am drawing on past experience. You don’t have the shorthand knowledge that I and some of the other players have. If things like this come up, and you are confused, let me know and I will explain.
But I am playing this game to win, and if you know someone’s play style and what it looks like, why try and reinvent the wheel? I don’t know that anyone who played in the pirates game can look at the way Mad posted and say that they really thought it was scummy coming from him. It is just how he plays. Why think there is a scum tell there when you can eliminate one.
Does this put him in my trusted list? No. Of course not. But I think there are bigger fish to fry.
Same goes with Mal. Maybe it is a bit wine in front of me logic, but I can not imagine ever saying something like when I was scum. A basic rule of thumb, the scum are at least as smart as the rest of us. And since I have experience as scum, why reinvent the wheel. If it is obvious to you reading it, it would be obvious to them typing it. Does it make me certain that he is town? No, it was a stupid thing to say and he might be scum who was just being stupid, but I think there are people who are more suspicious.
This isn’t a black and white situation, and if we start looking at it like it is we are lost. But we can prioritize. And frankly I think that they fall lower on the priority scale than, for example, AZTeach who’s behavior I think SCREAMS scum trying to blend in.
I also have experience as a game mod, and at some point I am sure that will come up. I am not going to hide my experience, it only helps me find scum. If you want me to further explain myself, feel free. If you don’t like my conclusions, don’t vote with me. But don’t tell me to intentionally ignore information I have gained in the past.
As far as scum behaving a certain way, this is psychology. People will behave in certain patterns under certain conditions. Even if they try to hid it, they will still give themselves away. This is even more true because the scum haven’t had a chance to talk yet.
And now I see Blaster Master has ruled on the whole encryption thing. So that kind of shoots a lot of the big post I just made in the foot. Nothing stops the Apprentice from claiming, but we can’t be sure it’s the real Apprentice until it’s probably too late.
It’s all wine-in-front-of-me logic at this stage. There is zero information to base a vote on and things will stay that way until a few people start dying or power roles start getting outed or people like the Oracle and Apprentice start reporting. On Day One we are all making bricks without straw. It’s not possible to tell whether I’ve dropped a scum tell or if the tell is so obvious it must confirm my innocence because no scum would be so stupid, or if it’s a cunning double-bluff because of the preceding point, or it’s really dumb because it’s trying to pass itself off as a cunning double-bluff which no-one would ever buy, or it’s really subtle because no-one would ever think they could get away with a cunning double-bluff like that, or…
Let me know when I reach the bottom-most turtle.
For now, all we can do is pick some poor sap to be a buoyancy test subject on Day One and leave behind a record that will allow other players to assemble a dossier later in the game. It’s an obvious limitation that the voting pattern of really good scum will be indistinguishable from a true townie, but we still all have to start somewhere. And really, would a scum player advance the very flaws in his own argument even as he posts it? Well, obviously yes, because it’s a cunning bluff… and off down the stack of turtles we go again.
Sorry. It’ll probably be quite a while before I become comprehensible, but that’s how I am in zero-information situations.
Believe you me, I like the mathematical analysis as much as anyone else, but we have to remember this is supposed to be a social game and, at least the iterations we’ve been running, don’t allow private messaging. The only concrete difference between a private message and an encrypted post is that you know a message was sent in the latter and obviously a private message is breaking the game because the Apprentice could just go “hey, investigate me!”
Similarly, I’m perfectly okay with random methods like random.org being used because it’s not palpably different than flipping a coin, rolling a die, throwing a dart, etc. IMO, what makes the game enjoyable isn’t the analytical/mathematical side, or the intuitive/psychological side, but a merger of the two.
However, if you’re still interested in breaking the game ;), I’ll gladly join with you after the game is over. Since, obviously based on the paper’s strategy, no one said that breaking it still had to be fun to play, right?
That’s where it falls apart for me. If we’re going to count non-believers as allies, then the Oracle will be able to say “Anti-Town” for exactly one role – the Avatar. All other scum come up as “non-believer” (or “Believer”, in the case of the Prophet).
The only way this would give us anything to go on would be if we were to drown all non-believers, but as been said, that gives a win-condition benefit to the scum.
NAF, I never told you to “intentionally ignore information” you’ve gained in the past. I was simply stating that justifying certain things simply with “this is how it’s been before” looks somewhat suspicious. I also think that assuming someone’s playing style will remain consistent can be dangerous - and in this case, experience can create a blind spot.
It makes sense, IMO, for scum to try and justify certain decisions they make by citing their experience as seasoned players. I am not saying that should discourage experienced townies from citing their own experiences, but simply stating that it’s not unreasonable for newer townie players to take it with a grain of salt, at least in the beginning stages of the game.
Thank you for your extended explanations. That’s what I was hoping to get from you.
I think part of it is that you’re posting frequently, and are very outspoken. It’s unfortunate, but those who post more often garner more attention, and give people more opportunities to find things suspicious, legitimate or not. That’s why lurkers pose a problem; they remain at the default probability of being scum, while almost everyone else trends downward, or becomes confirmed somehow.
It’s also possible that you’re over-estimating the amount of heat you’re getting. Maybe it’s just me, but I find it easy to become too personally involved, which definitely makes it hard to gauge things objectively.
In order to keep from doing the same thing I am complaining about others doing, this will be my last post on this subject. Beyond this, Mtgman, I think we will have to agree to disagree.
You still have no convinced me that this is possible. You haven’t even kind of suggested a way that it is.
Well, except the Detective in M2 wasn’t high profile at all. She was rapidly dead, sure, but no one knew she was the Detective until after she was gone. I think a pro-town player (the Vigilante) was her actual killer that Night, which was our second night. In M4, events forced several of the power roles to declare very early, and they used their roles about as effectively as I can imagine given that. So I stand unconvinced that any single approach is the most effective in every circumstance.
Yes. Which is why we shouldn’t discuss these roles during the Day. It is entirely possible that either the Oracle or the Apprentice has already said or done something that will flag him or her to the scum as part of the discussion you’ve been helping to continue. If that’s the case, all the power role strategery in the world won’t help. Think about it this way: if you were scum, on balance, wouldn’t you sort of be glad to see the town babbling about the Apprentice, such that he or she might give him- or herself away by his/her participation (or nonparticipation)?
It’s not essential to win quickly if you are the bad guys, even in a large game with detectives, because you have a player who is immune to the power of the Detective. If that player - the Prophet in this game - lasts to the end, no amount of futzing around or strategizing by the Oracle or Apprentice will find him or her. Not ever. So they don’t have to steer the lynch. They don’t have to do anything at all as long as the Prophet never comes under the gun. And they have a recruitment power to go with it all, which can swing the game right back into uncertainty if the Oracle / Apprentice declare too early.
This should go without saying. No one disagrees with this. Someone trying to steer the votes toward a lynch without evidence should be the suspect of suspicion no matter what “strategy” the town is employing. Unfortunately, it is not hard to generate seemingly persuasive evidence of scumminess.
Ugh. Disagree completely. We’re likely to take down a townie just because of the simple numbers of the thing, but this is not such a bad thing. We should be killing every day. There is no reason not to.
This is frankly bizarre. There are two night-kill roles right now, plus a third that could be activated at any time. I’d love for the Oracle and Apprentice to both survive until Day 6 and deliver enough information to completely turn the tide. It’s also not certain or even likely.
There are so many problems with this plan that I can scarcely name them all. First: there will never be enough names to break the Cult’s back as long as the Prophet is in the game. If nothing else, the town will need to have some evidence with which to identify this player (unless we get spectacularly lucky and he is slain by the Crusader, although under your plan, with the Crusader shooting for the Apprentice’s target (if the Apprentice finds a nonbeliever) or “whoever he/she thinks is scummy” (and don’t ask me how the Crusader is supposed to make this determination, seeing as we’re not lynching anyone and therefore generating no evidence of any kind during the Day).
Meanwhile, all those players declaring, to narrow the field for the Apprentice, also narrows the field for the Cult. Hypothesize six Cultists, five Masons, one declared Apprentice. That leaves a field of 18. If the town used your plan, the Cult would target one of those 18, and so would the Crusader, as (s)he would have no choice come Night 2. That’s an 11% chance of hitting at least one of the undeclared and unprotected power roles. This chance will continue increasing as the pool of living players shrinks. If someone makes an attempt on the Psychopath, now there are three killers going every night. If the Cult attempts a kill and fails, they will have identified the Priest. Hypothesize EIGHT Cultists, as you do below, and the Cult’s chances of killing one of the more valuable power roles increases exponentially. One unlucky night kill and everything falls to hell, and we’re sitting here with no evidence because we haven’t been talking about the game at all!
AND the Apprentice’s readings are of dubious value. You risk having the Oracle killed having identified only two or three players (he/she would have to use one Night to probe the Apprentice, after all, and one Cultist false claiming Apprentice would blow this all to hell, as well, because even if the Apprentice counterclaims, we’d have to lynch one of them to prove the truth, and if we guess wrong, we’re hosed), leaving us with three or four readings from the Apprentice, of which only one or so has any kind of probitive value.
Again, assuming: (1) the Oracle isn’t night-killed along the way; (2) we haven’t mis-identified nonbelievers as Cultists and killed them instead of the actual enemy; (3) the Apprentice investigations are anything like believable (and they’re not; none of them are probitive and the first few as likely to clear a Cultist or hang an innocent as the reverse). Which are horrible assumptions on which to base our entire game.
From the perspective of reducing the chances of the Oracle being collateral damage, having the monks and the Apprentice role claim Day 1 has exactly the same effect as lynching a comparable number of townies and keeping the power roles secret.
Not really. 14 townies vs. two Cultists will be 8 townies vs. two Cultists in no time at all, if the scum play smart and hide effectively.
Second: That’s no fun! Sitting back and letting a couple of people do all the work isn’t in the spirit of the game.
Third: I think there are other roles that you have forgotten that can screw with the whole scenario, namely the Alchemist and the Psychopath. If the Alchemist inadvertantly blocks the Oracle or Apprentice, your plan gets all screwed up. Or if the Crusader or Cultists activate the Psychopath, same thing.
Fourth: The Oracle or Apprentice (or Nairu forbid) both could have already given themselves away in the kerfluffle of discussion surrounding them. If so, and the Cultists have a bead on them already, then the whole plan is moot.
Lastly: I don’t think voting No-Dunk is good for the town. There are no voting records or associations to examine later in the endgame.