Mafia Watch-Along Thread - NO SPOILERS! [FORBIDDEN TO LIVE PLAYERS]

[Plumpudding]

@sachertorte

How was unvoting septimus risky? septimus died. Cygnus’s unvote of septimus did not change the game state. He enacted the unvote at literally the last minute. If I recall correctly, he also did not vote for the next highest candidate.

I’ll also note that I’ve seen scum helpfully try to save a late claim or whatever and just miss the deadline.

Isn’t this exciting! It’s like the game has moved to the Forbidden Thread.
Personally, I don’t find the nonsuch case to be so simple. I have problems with the way he voted with other wolves. The Johnny Bravo lynch looks especially weird to me. Why would nonsuch join Johnny Bravo in a futile vote for mollusk?

I agree with Biotop. It was a confusing enough situation that it is reasonable to believe that Cygnus had no idea wether his unvote would affect the outcome or not. A wolf could just have stayed out of it since there were too many town in that lynch for that to be suspicious in and of itself. Why would a wolf change his vote from Jsexton to Septimus that late in the day? And I think him having little time is a good enough explanation for why he didn’t place a vote after the unvote. This, combined with him being a first timer, leads me to believe that his attempt was genuine.

I also think his post on voting records is pretty compelling. I may be wrong, but to me Nonsuch seems like a good lynch.

This game is tense! I like it.

Oh and welcome Precambrianmollusc and Prof. Pepperwinkle!

[Precambrianmollusc]

@sachertorte

Similarly, nonsuch’s lack of interest in the game points could be a Wolf giving up, but it could also be a Townie giving up too. Regardless of nonsuch’s alignment, nonsuch is losing this game. That’s a pretty shitty position to be in. The writing on the wall is pretty clear. Everyone else in the game the previous day said nonsuch would be the last lynch if mollusk was Town.

Or if nonsuch starts posting, it gets viewed as a spirited wolf trying a last stand defense. That said if nonsuch is town it would be nice if he gave some reasons to not vote for him or a last ditch effort to hunt for the other scum.
If Cygnus and Sangfroid both state that they are voting nonsuch, I’d suggest they pm the mod and bring the day to an end, or if nonsuch is not going to mount a defense and is the wolf, pm the mod and bring it to an end. Then again silence from nonsuch could just be a tactic to get sangfroid and Cygnus to tie themselves in knots.

[sachertorte]

@Plumpudding

I agree with Biotop. It was a confusing enough situation that it is reasonable to believe that Cygnus had no idea wether his unvote would affect the outcome or not. A wolf could just have stayed out of it since there were too many town in that lynch for that to be suspicious in and of itself. Why would a wolf change his vote from Jsexton to Septimus that late in the day? And I think him having little time is a good enough explanation for why he didn’t place a vote after the unvote. This, combined with him being a first timer, leads me to believe that his attempt was genuine.

I don’t recall the voting all that well. I was referring to Cygnus’s unvote away from septimus. If Cygnus voted for septimus in some risky way, I’ve forgotten it.

[Shoeless]

Hey all, just curious. I’ve never played Mafia but have been following the current game and the discussion here. Post-game, is the private Scum night discussion ever published? I’d think it would be very interesting to read through that and see how the game progressed from that POV.

[Mtgman]

@Precambrianmollusc

Or if nonsuch starts posting, it gets viewed as a spirited wolf trying a last stand defense. That said if nonsuch is town it would be nice if he gave some reasons to not vote for him or a last ditch effort to hunt for the other scum.
If Cygnus and Sangfroid both state that they are voting nonsuch, I’d suggest they pm the mod and bring the day to an end, or if nonsuch is not going to mount a defense and is the wolf, pm the mod and bring it to an end. Then again silence from nonsuch could just be a tactic to get sangfroid and Cygnus to tie themselves in knots.

The rules say active participation is two posts and a vote per game day, which is five real life days. They also don’t say anything about PMing a mod to end the day early when there is a voting consensus.

It’s important not to change rules in the middle of a game. I know it may be frustrating and annoying to spectators, and even players, but it’s a basic principle of fairness. Changing the rules during a game is always risky. It’s really only acceptable when players find a broken situation(i.e. everyone vote for themselves and let the tiebreaker rule find wolves) the designer/moderator didn’t anticipate. And then you do it only with the advice and consent of the players. It’s a perfectly valid strategy for a wolf to lead town around by the nose in a sudden death situation, and it’s an equally valid strategy to let town run themselves in circles while lurking and letting them drive each other crazy in the same situation. When it’s down to the final three with sudden death on the line everything takes on new meaning, and the WIFOM becomes super potent.

If Cygnus is the wolf, and nonsuch is town, then it’s unfair to nonsuch to have his time to plead his case cut short. Cygnus may make a slip and throw the scummiest of scum tells and sangfroid and nonsuch jump on it.

If Cygnus is town and nonsuch is the wolf, then it’s unfair to nonsuch to eliminate his time to throw doubt on Cygnus’s case on him and convince sangfroid that Cygnus is the wolf.

Repeat with names swapped out for the other possible combinations of town/wolf.

Basically, the wine in front of me must be properly decanted and allowed to breathe before it’s suitable for drinking. Only time can do that. Sometimes that time is nail-biting and frustrating, but only the fullness of time can bring a wine to its peak.

Enjoy,
Steven

[Precambrianmollusc]

Fair point , I am just impatient ! Agree that staying quite could certainly be a valid wolf strategy .

[Plumpudding]

@sachertorte

I don’t recall the voting all that well. I was referring to Cygnus’s unvote away from septimus. If Cygnus voted for septimus in some risky way, I’ve forgotten it.

I know. #639. He’s saying his vote on Jsexton is meaningless and changes his vote to Septimus, although he’s unsure about both the leaders. This was five minutes before EOD. If he was wolf, why would he do that? He had a vote on a wolf, which would have looked good later when Jsexton could eventually get lynched. As a wolf, he could have gotten town cred without actually voting to lynch a wolf by just staying out of the discussion EOD. Instead he switched his vote to Septimus, which is suspicious, then he switched it again after Septimus claimed.

[sachertorte]

Ah. That is a good point.

I can point to things Cygnus did that he would not do if he were a Wolf AND I can point to things that nonsuch did that he would not do if he were a Wolf AND I can point to things that sangfroid did that he would not do if he were a Wolf.

So, yeah. Interesting game. It comes down to what actions to weigh more heavily than others.

[Plumpudding]

I agree, it’s really interesting. I can’t say I’m sure Cygnus is town. I’m leaning on Nonsuch to be wolf, but I’m really happy I don’t have to make that decision.

[HookerChemical]

I don’t think the case for Cygnus being town is that compelling. As I’ve already mentioned, the unvote for septimus isn’t strong evidence. If Cygnus was a wolf, he knew he was simply choosing to mis-lynch a different townie. Leaving the power role alive has some risk, but look at the results. Nobody has questioned that Cygnus is townie since then. The Sario vote is a more compelling case, IMO, but it’s not iron clad. There were plenty of places for a wolf to place a third vote and mis-lynch a townie (PCM, Plum). Sangfroid is an unknown. Of the five people with 2 or 3 votes at the end of the day (meaning they could have been lynched with the change of a single vote), two were wolves (Sario, Diggit). So Cygnus either was one of three townies that voted for Sario, or Cygnus bussed Sario and gets the wolf MVP for two moves that are easily misread as super townie.

Briefly, I’m not sure what to make of Sario’s early vote on Cygnus. Nobody was thinking Cygnus was wolf in the game thread, but Sario threw a vote that way when he already had three on him. Maybe this is a move of a dying wolf to put a harmless vote on a fellow wolf to lower suspicion. That vote couldn’t go to Diggit because he already had two votes, but it could have gone to Johnny as well. At the time, there wasn’t much voiced suspicion of Johnny either, so voting for either would have accomplished that goal.

Nonsuch seems like he’s been at the low end of the likely candidates list for a long time. Based on sangfroid’s post summarizing the voting record of each candidate, he can’t find a wolf to save it life and it’s catching up with him. What I don’t understand is the origin of the case against him.

sangfroid is a strange case. His position in the Sario mess is the most interesting element in any case against him, but it’s virtually impossible to read. He was the winner of the tiebreaker. Of all the people with two votes, Sario chose him to put his vote on and tied the vote up between the two of them. If sangfroid is town, this vote could have either been an attempt by Sario to kill a townie in a mis-lynch, which relies on the mason not being one of those voting for Sario. The problem with this interpretation is that it’s not a particularly good plan. If sang is town, that means that the wolves know that 3 of 9 remaining townies are voting Sario, which yields a decent chance the mason breaks the tie to kill the alpha rather than the alpha breaking the tie to kill sang. Obviously, this is what happened. (Of course, Cygnus could be a wolf, which lessens the risk of this plan, which nudges my suspicions that the swan is truly a wolf slightly up, but only a tiny amount.)

If sang is wolf, things make a little more sense. The simple explanation for Sario’s actions is that he was bussing another wolf. If the mason broke the tie to kill Sario, sang looks a little townier due to the fact that a wolf nearly killed him. If sang dies and turns up wolf, Sario looks townie for being in on a townie kill. As far as suspicions go, it’s win-win, but it costs them a wolf.

Finally, sang’s vote on TexCat is difficult to explain under any scenario. It’s a throw-away vote. There were three people with two votes on them at the time already. While it was possible that Tex was the alpha, that was a relatively small risk.

Going in to rereading the mess that was the end of Day 4, I was leaning Nonsuch. Now, he’s on the bottom of my list, even below Cygnus. My gut is even saying Cygnus is the last wolf and has benefited from elaborate and noble wolf self sacrifices to survive so long and be so unquestionably town. But that’s unlikely. The elaborate schemes that would have to happen to make that true aren’t reasonable. As others have said already, town tends to come up with much more elaborate wolf schemes than the wolves themselves. The last wolf is sangfroid. I say this with the same confidence I had that PCM was the last wolf.

[Prof.Pepperwinkle]

Another thought: Cygnus, sangfroid and Nonsuch are all Noobs. They don’t know what’s expected, and won’t perform the way experienced players do.

I still think Nonsuch is the wolf.

[Plumpudding]

@HookerChemical: Again, why would Cygnus vote for Septimus in the first place?

I agree Prof. Pepperwinkle. I also think Town realising this is partly how we managed to turn things around.

[sachertorte]

@HookerChemical

The last wolf is sangfroid.

Well, someone in this thread will be right.

[Plumpudding]

Why aren’t Nonsuch responding?

[Prof.Pepperwinkle]

Nonsuch hasn’t responded much throughout the game. When he does it’s usually at night. I’m guessing a job has something to do with that.

[HookerChemical]

@Plumpudding

@HookerChemical: Again, why would Cygnus vote for Septimus in the first place?

Good point. I hadn’t considered how late Cygnus made that move, which would come off as scummy. So that’s a mitigating factor for Cygnus, but it doesn’t change my overall conclusion or my certainty in it.

@HookerChemical

The last wolf is sangfroid. I say this with the same confidence I had that PCM was the last wolf.

[Sario]

@Shoeless

Hey all, just curious. I’ve never played Mafia but have been following the current game and the discussion here. Post-game, is the private Scum night discussion ever published? I’d think it would be very interesting to read through that and see how the game progressed from that POV.

Typically, yes.

[Chronos]

But it’s usually not as interesting as the Townies think it must be. Townies must have endless discussion of every last minute detail, because we don’t know who anyone is, or who to trust. Scum already know who they can trust, so they usually come to a consensus fairly quickly and with very little drama.

[Plumpudding]

Nonsuch’s fingertips must be bleeding by now.

[Thing_Fish]

Wow, this is exciting! I’m leaning toward** nonsuch** based on Occam’a Razor, but I wouldn’t be surprised if either of the other two were the wolf, either.If I were wolfy Nonsuch, I might stall as long as possible and then make a case against Cygnus, putting** sangfroid** on the spot.