Major League Baseball: League Championship Serieses Thread

Cafe Society
1

The division series all ended early, and tomorrow night we commence the LEageu Championships!

American League

Detroit Tigers (95-67, def. Yankees 3-1) vs. Oakland Athletics (93-69, def. Twins 3-0)

Well, everyone said it’d be Yankees and Twins. The Yankees were apparently under the misapprehension that the ALDS was a one game affair, and the Twins showed up at the wrong stadium or something.

Both Oakland and Detroit looked fantastic in the ALDS but they can’t both win so we have to go back to the regular season numbers. What stands out for me is this: Detroit scored more runs than Oakland (822 to 771) and allowed fewer (675 to 727.) In point of fact, the difference in record understates the case; Detroit finished only two games ahead of Oakland but is actually a much better team. Oakland was actually quite lucky to go 93-69; they scored and allowed runs like an 86-76 team, while Detroit was more like 97-65. So it’s really like the Yankees vs. the Blue Jays. Who would you pick? Okay, bad example right now.

My inclination is thus to assume that Detroit’s top-line pitchers will probably not allow Oakland to score enough runs to win the series. It’s the majors’ best pitching staff against what was an average offense at best. So I’m picking Detroit in 5. OF course, The Big Hurt might hit six home runs or something.

Of course, I picked the Twins to win it all.
National League

New York Mets (97-65, def. Dodgers 3-0) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (83-78, def. Padres 3-1)

Gosh, it wasn’t a good baseball week for Southern California. But it’s kind of cool to see a Mets-Cards series; they’ve only ever faced each other once, in the boring and one-sided 2000 NLCS, and yet there’s good rivalry there.

Let’s presume the Cardinals are over whatever disease they had during the September swoon. Are they really an 83-78 team? Yep; they only scored 19 more runs than they allowed. Once again, this is a mtchup of teams where one had better hitting AND better pitching and defense; the Mets scored 834 runs to the Cardinals’ 781, and allowed 731 runs to the Cardinals’ 762.

Despite looking much better against the Padres than we expected, the Cardinals look beatable as hell to me; aside from El Hombre the lineup is all either hurt or not really very good, and they have one good starting pitcher, Chris Carpenter, who basically won the NLDS by himself. Carpenter started two out of four games in the NLDS, but he can’t start 3.5 games out of seven. Truth be told, there are a lot of teams who are noticeably better than the Cardinals who didn’t even make the playoffs; the White Sox, Blue Jays, Phillies and Angels are all much better teams. But that’s divisional play.

The Mets, conversely, have way more legitimate offensive threats and while the starting rotation is not fantastic, I’ll take it over the Cardinals’.

I’ll take the Mets in 5; Carpenter is the best pitcher on either team and so the Mets likely cannot sweep.

I hope they enjoy it as I fully expect them to be summarily annihilated by either the Tigers or A’s in the World Series

2

Mets vs. Tigers would be a cool World Series, as that is the only possible WS matchup that has not happened in previous years*. I’ve stated earlier that, if the Dodgers didn’t make it, I would be rooting for a small-market team. I’m inclined to root for the A’s, but if they lose to the Tigers, as seems likely, I’ll happily root for the Tigers in the World Series. What a great story it would be, for a team to go from being one of the worst of all time to champions in just three seasons.

*The Mets and A’s played in '73, the Cards and A’s played in '30 and '31, and the Cards and Tigers played in '34 and '68.

3

Based on my less than stellar track record in making picks for the first round I ought to just shut up, but what the heck: Mets over St. Louis in 6 and the A’s over the Tigers in 7.

4

Redbirds:

At points during the season, the rotation was “Reyes and Carp and pray for tarp” and with good reason.

Assuming that TLR doesn’t do something stupid (like leave Marquis on the roster) you’ll see Weaver in Game 1, Suppan or Reyes in Game 2, Carp in Game 3 and Game 4 will be the guy who doesn’t start Game 2.

Weaver in Game 1 is an interesting decision: he’s been better on the road than at home, but he can’t get lefties out and the Mets have plenty of lefties. Suppan knows how to step his game up in the playoffs when necessary, Carp is… Carp, and Reyes has the potential to be a #2 starter next year.

The lineup has some holes in it for sure. Rolen’s shoulder is keeping him from hitting anything, so the defensively inferior but hot-hitting Scott Spiezio will be getting the majority of the at-bats at the hot corner. The outfield is composed of the free-swinging “Loneliest Number” Juan “Instant Breakfast” Encarnacion, the aging, ailing Jim “Jimmy Ballgame” Edmonds and either Preston “PDub” Wilson or Chris “Baby Dunc” Duncan.

My guess as to what the lineup looks like for a majority of the NLCS games:

  1. SS Eckstein
  2. LF Duncan
  3. 1B El Hombre
  4. CF Edmonds
  5. RF Encarnacion
  6. 3B Spiezio
  7. 2B Ronnie “Belly” Belliard
  8. C Yadi Molina

The bench will, barring any changes, consist of John Rodriguez, Gary “Sno Cone” Bennett, Aaron Miles and So Taguchi.

The bullpen: Babyface, Blooper, Johnson, Flores, Kinney, Hancock, Kid Wainwright. 0.00 ERA in the NLDS, by the way, with 4 rookies.

5

Latest update from Baseball Heaven: TLR and Duncan have set the (tentative) rotation:

Gm1 - Weaver
Gm2 - Suppan
Gm3 - Carp
Gm4 - Marquis or Reyes

Marquis is 5-4 lifetime against the Mets; Reyes has never faced them.

6

This whole thing with Rolen is really bothersome. I know he tried to tough it out, but as a teammate his performance over the last month was one of the factors that drove their near collapse. We need some offense out of third to even have a remote chance against the Mets.

I would love to see lightning strike and have a world series rematch of 1968, with the Cards coming out on top this time. As it is, I’ll pick the Mets in 5, then losing to the Tigers in six.

7

Oh, I have little illusion about this. With Izzy and Rolen out, it’s just not a fair fight, and even then, I honestly wonder about the killer instinct with the Cardinals somehow. Albert is only 4 years from being a drop-dead HOF (he could drop dead and be elected, needing nothing more on his resume), but I notice the team is turning into the Braves, who won 13 division titles and only one WS. I don’t know if that’s a bit of salary limitation or what, but I fail to excuse that much, as Jocketty has managed to get some real steals because of the players loving the fans there.

It will take some real over-his-head playing by someone I think to sneak out four wins in seven here. It would probably need 3 people, and a couple key errors by the Mets, a bit like what happened with that throw to home by the Padres in game 4.

8

Agreed. The Cards do better with replacement players who rise to the occasion than with regulars who play hurt (which is why I’m glad to see Wainright in for Isringhausen).

I’m hoping the Cardinals win—and anything could happen—but I’m guessing it’ll be Mets in 6.

9

My neighbor is a die-hard Mets fan. I grew up the the Lou, so of course I bleed, uh, nevermind.

We’re doing Home / Away - Shea games at his house, Busch at mine. I hope we don’t kill each other.

My favorite part of the ALCS will be watching Leyland sneak smokes in the tunnel.

10

Come on, somebody’s got to step forward and pick the Cards to win the NLCS. As a Mets fan, it’s… unnerving?.. to have my team universally proclaimed the heavy favorite. In what’s shaping up to be the Year of the Surprising Underdog, that sort of thing can only lead to trouble.

11

I never pick against the Redbirds.

And if you want to talk about picks, Rob Neyer of ESPN had the perfect pick set:

NLCS: Dodgers vs. Padres
ALCS: Twins vs. Yankees

Doesn’t get much better than that.

12

Well, it’s the 4th inning of Game 1 and the Tigers lead 5-0 and Zito is out of the game.

Who saw that coming?

13

I don’t know. But Tigers looked sharp in that game. Picking up right where they left off.

That 4th inning performance by Robertson was totally money, and there’s no other way to say it. Down goes Chavez. Down goes Swisher. Down does Scutaro. Damn.

Also, I love listening to Lou Pinella.

14

So the pitching matchups will be:

1 - Weaver & Glavine
2 - Suppan & Traschsel
3 - Carpenter & some kid
4 - Marquis or Reyes & some guy you’ve never heard of and (in approximate order) Darren Oliver, Roberto Hernandez, Guillermo Mota, Chad Bradford, Pedro Feliciano, Aaron Heilman, and Billy Wagner. Hell, maybe if Reyes starts the Mets will have their Reyes pitch just for the heck of it.

I’m excited about this series, although with the Mets reliance on the bullpen and Tony La Russa managing the other side, these games are all going to be five hours long. And the one Steve “The Human Rain Delay” Traschel starts will be six hours long.

The big question is, with the Joe Torre conundrum put to bed, will the Mets be able to knock Alex Rodriguez off the back pages? You know, the Mets are actually still playing games.

15

I’m guessing La Russa goes with Marquis; I get the impression he doesn’t think he can totally rely on Reyes yet. Marquis is capable of turning in a decent performace every once in a while, and if he’s having one of his frequent off days, the Cards have a decent (if young) bullpen. On the other hand, La Russa may do what he did last year, and save Marquis to use as a possible reliever (or pinch hitter, or bat boy or whatever).

16

Probably Oliver Perez in game four. He’s a risk, but when he’s on his game, it’s lights out. He’s been improving under Rick Peterson and will be a regular starter next season, but is not currently where he’s dependable.

If not him, then Dave Williams, who isn’t as good as Perez when he’s on, but isn’t as bad when he’s off.

I also think the Mets are planning to use John Maine in Game 2 and Trachsel in Game 3, going with the rookie at home and the veteran away.

Maine has pitched well for the Mets, and not just in his start in game 1 of the NLDS. He has a good, sneaky fastball, but does tend to give up homers.

Trachsel, OTOH, has not pitched great this year, but still leads the team in wins. He seems to have a talent for pitching well when needed, and giving up runs when the team jumps out to a lead. He’s also one of the slowest workers in the league; some fans call him “The Human Rain Delay.”

However, the Mets pitching strength is indeed their bullpen, and Willie will go to it at the first sign of trouble. The team has has 12 starting pitchers this year (Martinez, Glavine, Victor Zambrano, Trachsel, Brian Bannister, Maine, Jose Lima, Geremi Gonzalez, El Duque, Alay Soler, Williams, and Mike Pelfrey) and managed to win with all but Lima.

It also doesn’t help the Cards that all their starters are right-handed: the Mets devoured right-handed pitching all year. Pujols is probably the best player on the field, but the next four or five best are all wearing orange and blue. Even if Cliff Floyd’s on the bench, the team has too few weaknesses.

17

Official word: as of 10 a.m. Eastern, Jason Marquis was off the roster, replaced with Anthony Reyes. Reyes is expected to be announced as the Game 4 starter at the news conference before tonight’s game.

18

I had that same set of picks in the earlier playoff thread. I’m happy with the AL results, less so the NL.

I too will pick the Cardinals over the Mets, mostly to fulfill my earlier prediction that neither NY team would win the World Series. They can’t win it if they don’t get there…

As for last night game, not that surprising. I don’t really trust Zito in big games. I’ll worry if the A’s don’t take it tonight. But frankly, I’m just glad they got to the second round. And I have to say, I was dead wrong about Detroit. My hat’s off to them for the way they picked themselves up from the ground and got back to it once the postseason started. They really looked like choking dogs there for a while, but they’ve stood up, and I won’t consider it a shame to lose to them if it comes to that for the A’s.

By the way, is anyone else disturbed by the fact that both games will be played at the same time tonight? What the hell is that shit? Is baseball so determined to be treated as second rate that they have to schedule their postseason games against each other. The other leagues never pull that shit.

19

This is about the third year they’ve schedule LCS games against each other. I think the reasoning is that it is less disruptive to their primetime schedules, since they don’t have to give up as many nights a week to show all the games.

No matter which LCS game Fox is showing in your area tonight, the other game will be on FX.

20

Fox wants to schedule all games in prime time on weekdays. Which isn’t all that odd: of all important televised sports only the NCAA Basketball preliminary rounds are played during weekdays, and those are usually top seed vs. #16 blowouts.

On weekends, you can have an afternoon game and an evening game, but during the week, any game starting early is going to get low ratings.