The season is over, and here are your first round matchups:
American League:
New York (1) (97-65) vs. Detroit (4) (95-67)
Detroit played horribly for most of the last third of the season, making the playoffs only because they got such a big early lead and all the other teams chasing playoff spots blew chunks down the stretch, too; it’s hard to believe, looking at the standings now, that Chicago, Boston and Toronto were all serious contenders at the All-Star break.
New York quietly scored 930 runs, a staggering number, so the question is how Detroit’s young pitchers will hold up. In a short series anything can happen but Detroit looks slumpy and vulnerable, and one has to think they may get ground up by the Yankee rent-a-star lineup.
Yankee to watch: Alex Rodriguez might go 2-for-19 or he might hit five homers. If it’s the former, expect riots and effigy-burnings in the Bronx.
Tiger to Watch: Carlos Guillen had a brilliant season and hardly anyone noticed. He might surprise a lot of people who’ve never watched a lot of Tigers games.
Pick: Yankees
Minnesota (2) (96-66) vs. Oakland (3) (93-69)
The Twins are the anti-Tigers, roasting hot down the stretch after seemingly being left for dead in May. Oakland sort of wandered away with the West without much of a fight.
Oakland was very lucky to win 93 games - the Pythagorean system suggests a team with their mix of runs scored and allowed should go about 85-77, or about as good as Boston or Anaheim. (Los Angeles, Anaheim, whatever.) Minnesota scored more runs and allowed fewer runs than Oakland.
Minnesota, of course, is missing the great Francisco Liriano, which means they have to start a guy named Boof. Nonetheless the pitching matches up well with Oakland’s in almost every matchup and the hitting’s a lot better; I’d say the Twins are the biggest favourite in the first round, and they are my pick to win the World Series, in fact. Not that that means a lot in baseball.
A To Watch: It would be so glorious for Frank Thomas to have a huge playoff run.
Twin To Watch: Isn’t it weird to call one of 25 guys, individually, a “Twin”? Anyway, Johan Santana is awesome and I love watching him pitch.
Pick: Minnesota
National League:
**
New York Mets (1) (97-65) vs. San Diego Padres (4) (88-74)**
Much has been made of the fact that Pedro Martinez is going to miss the playoffs. Let’s get real; the guy was 9-8 with a 4.48 ERA. They didn’t need him all year, really, so why is he suddenly that great a loss? John Maine looks very good as a #4.
Padres-Mets is a pretty straightforward pitching vs.hitting matchup; the Padres had the best pitching in the NL but their offense is poor. The Mets have top line offense with several MVP candidates; their pitching’s good too, actually, though not as good as San Diego’s. San Diego needs at least three awesome starts, and they do have the talent to deliver them, but the Mets didn’t finish with the NL’s best record for nothing.
Met to Watch: Carlos Delgado finally gets into the playoffs. He’s always choked in playoff races; can he perform in the postseason?
Padre to Watch: Mike Piazza vs. the Mets will be fun.
Pick: Mets
Los Angeles (2) (89-73) vs. St. Louis (3) (83-79)
I wonder if this sets a record for the fewest combined wins between two playoff opponents, not counting strike years?
St. Louis, of course, goes into the playoffs with perhaps the worst stretch drive of any team to ever actually get this far. The stats back up the win-less records; Los Angeles scored substantially more runs than the Cardinals, in fact almost as many as New York, and allowed a few less.
At least to my eyes, the Dodgers’ rotation looks a hell of a lot more dependable, sending a solid pitcher who had a good year out there pretty much every night, whereas for the Cardinals it’s Suppan and Carp and pray for the tarp. The Cardinals had essentially no good starting pitchers at all beyond those two, which goes a long way towards explaining the mediocre record. As a Blue Jays (87-75) fan, I gotta tell you, I support reseeding of teams so these weak ass divisions can get broken up. Shit, just put the Jays in the NL and they’ll win 96 games.
Anyway, LA’s way better than St. Louis.
Dodger to Watch: I love Kenny Lofton. He’s 68 years old now and has been playing since Henry Chadwick was scoring games, and he’s played for every team in the world including the Nippon Ham Fighters, and he’s still a .300 hitter. He’s so fun to watch play.
Cardinal to Watch: The team is beaten up and at odds with the St. Louis press, but make no mistake about it: Chris Carpenter can still bring it. Don’t think for an instant he can’t win 2 games in this series.
Pick: Los Angeles (not the Anaheim one)
