Ah, I like this argument Gobear
It’s the one that’s trotted out so as we think that maybe the real Iraqis are all totally grateful and its outsiders, mercenaries, adventurers and agent provocateurs who are doing all this ‘insurgency’.
We British used this when we didn’t want to acknowledge that actually it was the Irish themselves who were shooting at us, it wouldn’t do to believe that we were not wanted.
It’s been done so many times, by administrations of all types, in so many differant countries, you’d think GoBear that you would have seen straight through this canard by now.
Somehow I doubt that these ‘foreign’ insurgents could operate at all without the support of some of the populace, and they would be very easy for the grateful local populace to spot and point out to the good US non-invading and well intentioned US troops.
Get real, its mostly Iraqis who are this ‘insurgency’, they most likely will not support the current US installed government.
Given the history of this area, I would not be in the slightest surprised that those who make up the current Iraqi ‘government’ are doing plenty of score settling themselves against other groups who might want a share of power.
Recent Arab history shows that one tribe will try to dominate all the others, and ensure their own hegemony, we do have some fairly good role models here, just look to the South West a little, at Saudi, or Kuwait, these are not anything like democracies, and its very likely that this is less an ‘insurgency’ and far more a power struggle, one tribe using the US to enforce things for the moment, the others tribes collectively organising against them.
How long after the US leaves does anyone think this puppet government will survive, and what is most likely to replace it whan it falls.
We could end up with each party not being strong enough to take over the whole country, and none being able to prevent any of the other tribes pretty much going their own way, civil war is a distinct possibility.
I just do not see the Sunnis, Shia and Kurds working together long term, they all have incentives to break away, and they all have the possibility of assistance from neighbouring populations.
The very best we can hope for is some form of assembly, with each region having its own autonomous district, but woe betide any group that is seen to have stood with the US.