I decided to try a couple of the $0.99 tournaments. Played Saturday. Sucked. Frustrated, and I was anxious to redeem myself, so I tried again on Sunday. And I just can’t buy a decent hand. Fifty minutes in, and the best cards I’ve seen were a pair of fives. Lots of players are already eliminated. I’m only still in because the cards have been so bad that I’ve only been in about four hands and haven’t lost much money.
Nine players at the table, I’m the small blind, and I finally see a pair of jacks, hearts and diamonds.
Let’s see. What could the other people be holding:
An ace. You’re screwed unless another jack comes out
Two aces. You’re screwed unless you pull the backdoor straight and hope nobody’s got the fourth jack paired with a queen
Pocket 7s or 8s. A jack will save you, so will the straight.
Pocket queens or kings. Screwed except for pulling trips or a straight.
Two pair, 7s and 8s. Trips or the straight could save you. If they’ve paired the 7 and 8 on the board, only way you can win with two pair is to get another pair on the board, not another 7 or 8. Then you run the risk of someone picking up trips or a boat.
Pair the 7 or the 8. Other card is irrelevant as long as they don’t pair it. Only way you’re currently ahead.
Have nothing currently on the board but decide to stick around with a queen or king. The odds of them pairing one of those isn’t great and they might decide to fold as Broadway is a long shot. Unless they’re three or four to a flush, then they might stick around for another card.
I’d be wary of the flush. You need four hearts out there to make it and if someone stuck around with the queen, king, or ace, you lose.
I think I’d think very hard about folding. There’s a pot of 960 out there, but without more stack information it’s hard to say. You’ve got one out for the straight, one out for the flush (maybe), two outs for trips, and it gets tricky for anything lower. Assuming you get the four to an inside straight on the turn, you’ve only got about a 9% chance of picking it up. If I’m really short-stacked, I might take the risk and try to bluff him with a reraise or even an all-in and then hope and pray if he calls. If I’m middling but losing another 120 won’t hurt too much I’d probably stay in for the turn. If anyone reraises much past that, though, I’d get out. Otherwise, I’d probably play it tight, fold, and get out and hope for something better to come along.
Holy crap. Apparently I was Rude and Grim again, because i just won another 5TT $1.00+.20 at PokerStars after finishing not-so-well at the SDMB tournament.
Ahh, but not against me. In the early days of this it seemed like every other week Kyy and I were heads up, and he ALWAYS beat me. I beat everyone else I got heads up, but never kyy. He’s my kryptonite.
After a thorough combing of all the poker threads so far (yes, I’m bored), I only found the following heads-up matches between me and Nook:
2-10-05
1.Kyy
2.Nanook
4-22-05
1.Nanook
2.Kyy
8-11-05
1.Kyy
2.Nanook
10-13-05
1.Kyy
2.Nanook
A clear 3-1 advantage, but not really dominating. Of course, some of the results may have been lost in the shuffle, or I could have overlooked something. I also found unpleasant reminders of past losses to Duke and Yeti. Hard to stomach.
Oslo’s had a great start, but the bar for newcomers is set pretty high. I remember a certain young Duck who won his first three weeks in a row. I don’t see that record being broken anytime soon.
Almost thursday. Wednesday is the longest day of the week.
If anyone cares, Celebrity Poker Showdown is hosting a series of tournaments that could end in a spot on the show. Details are here.
I guess you can enter as many qualifying tournaments as you want to try to get a seat in the final. I tried it and I have to say I hate the client. It’s slow, full of bots, and it kept making me sit out for no reason. But it’s free, so what can you do?
I’m looking forward to the game tonight, as well. As a result of a whim yesterday, I’m now locked into poker for tomorrow night, too. I entered a $9 qualifier last night for PartyPoker’s Friday Special $200+15 tournament, and I won the damn thing.
I was having my usual struggles – crappy cards, dwindling stack – when about midway through I finally started getting hit. In the space of 10 hands, I went from 3,000 chips to 30,000, and for the next hour I just fluctuated between about 27K and 33K. Places 5-7 got paid cash and the top 4 finishers got entry into this $200 tourney tomorrow night. I was joking with my b/f about wanting to come in 5th and win $65, but at 7 left I was the big stack on the table. B/f suggested that I could turn my entry into cash so I might as well play for the top 4. At the end of the third hour of the qualifier, only four were left. Coming out of the break, at least two of my opponents were arguing for going all-in every hand, since the results no longer mattered. I got QQ and went all in, won and eliminated a player. Sat out a hand and another player was eliminated. Heads up got AA in the small blind and went all in – beat 99. Next hand was AT suited and I cleaned him out.
But it turns out the b/f was wrong and I can’t take the entry fee in cash. I have to play this tournament tomorrow night. Last Friday the thing had 950 entrants and first place was over $40k. The top thirty places all paid off at least $950. Color me freaked.
