Warnings require that people get them, listen to them, and act appropriately. Skip any one of those three and disaster can ensue.
I dunno - maybe the church camp was relying on God to protect them?
As I said - there were other camps along the Guadalupe River that flooded. While there was some loss of life, and I don’t want to minimize the tragedy of losing those people, all of those other camps collectively don’t seem to have lost as many people as that one camp Mystic did. So you have to ask why Mystic had so much greater loss of life.
It’s possible that being at a point where more than one river converged increased their risk.
On the other hand, they could have avoided some of that risk by not building sleep quarters on the flood plain of a river with a history of flooding. Sure, those buildings were above a typical flood line, but the sleeping cabins should have been on the highest ground available. Which is hindsight.
Unfortunately, any investigation or analysis may be more looking for a scapegoat than actually attempting to learn something from this disaster with an eye to preventing future disasters.
Kelly said the county considered a flood warning system along the river that would have functioned like a tornado warning siren about six or seven years ago, before he was elected, but that the idea never got off the ground because of the expense.
“We’ve looked into it before … The public reeled at the cost,” Kelly said.
Meaning it has a lot of high ground? I would expect that the camp staffs would know where the high ground was, and what trails to get there. If you get to the high ground, you might be temporarily stranded by a flood, but you won’t be killed.
I was just thinking of this in the context of a campground my company rents out in that area for a few days every October (but not this coming October due to budget cuts). In the summer, it is indeed a Girl Scout camp. Camp Waldemar to be exact. Not the one being reported as the site of the flooding (possibly just because no one has died there?) and that is indeed how it’s arranged: activities buildings down low, cabins on the high ground (as I can painfully remember from having to go up so many steep steps each day).
Unfortunately, it sounds like Camp Mystic was not similarly arranged even though, from a quick look at the topography, that seems to have been an option (there look to be two natural ridges that protrude into the property, but they look to be undeveloped).
ETA: This article indicates that although the camp I’ve stayed at (Waldemar) was affected by the flooding, everyone was safe and accounted for (and my speculation is simply that the fact its cabins are on high ground might well have made the difference).
See the post above yours. It seems like some folks did learn something from past experience.
I wonder if the camp director who died wasn’t fortunate. He doesn’t have to face any responsibility for this. Kind of like a Captain going down with his ship.
Kerr County 76% for Trump, 73% for Cruz. Those folk are signaling for the type of government and level of services/regulation they want. Too bad their kids have to pay such a high price.
Oh yeah - the county is nearly 89% white, so the photos of campers don’t seem terribly disproportionate.
This is Mo-Ranch, where the US national Camino pilgrims groups meets for some of its annual gatherings, including, in theory, in 2026. Members got the word that everyone was safe yesterday, which was good news. I don’t remember how much elevation there is between the Guadalupe and the main buildings, but I’m sure there’s plenty of damage by the river (outbuildings, labyrinth, bridges, etc.).
Around me the police or state troopers warn people if there is flooding possible. Or if fires are coming. The Russian River floods all the time. Were the local police unaware of the danger? Or were they understaffed also?
Camp Mystic didn’t sound like one of those “YOU NEED JESUS!” camps. It sounded more like the type where it was nondenominational, and they would say grace before meals and have chapel every day. Plus, a fundie camp wouldn’t be called “Mystic” either.
It may well have been attended by the kind of people who, back in the day, went to church primarily to see and be seen. IDK.
There is this snippet that may address the racial distribution:
Camp Mystic is a nondenominational Christian institution that has hosted the children of some of Texas’s political elite over its 99-year history. Former first lady Laura Bush was a camp counselor there, and past camp attendees included the daughters of former US president Lyndon B Johnson and the former Texas governor John Connally.
According to a Guardian article, the NWS issued this warning on Saturday:
On Saturday flash flood warnings issued for parts of central Texas. “This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION,” the National Weather Service (NWS) warned in a bulletin. “SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!”
Texas’ political elite doesn’t care that they send their own kids to a camp with inadequate emergency preparation, despite a known history of flooding. Explains a lot.
Yeah - let’s see the feds pour millions into this county that was too cheap to install their own warning system.
That’s how you pay for public infrastructure like that.