McCain not as forked as the McCain Forked thread, but still forked

[Leaper]

Too-late edit to above: This is being touted as a “we still have a shot!” moment by those interested in a McCain victory. On one hand, it seems rather… pathetic somehow, given all the complaining about how the other polls are biased - what, THIS one you believe in particular? I wonder why? OTOH, I can certainly understand why; I can’t say for sure that Obama voters wouldn’t be doing the same were the shoe on the other foot…

[Ca3799]

Who is Barak Obama?

He’s the guy kicking your butt.

[Frostillicus]

@Leaper

WTF? Drudge says there’s a Zogby poll showing McCain UP by ONE.

Where the hell did that come from?

Out of Drudge’s ass?

[GIGObuster]

@Leaper

Too-late edit to above: This is being touted as a “we still have a shot!” moment by those interested in a McCain victory. On one hand, it seems rather… pathetic somehow, given all the complaining about how the other polls are biased - what, THIS one you believe in particular? I wonder why? OTOH, I can certainly understand why; I can’t say for sure that Obama voters wouldn’t be doing the same were the shoe on the other foot…

I will have to say: cite? To Drudge.

Obama retains seven-point lead on McCain

Obama retains seven-point lead on McCain

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama’s lead over Republican rival John McCain held steady at seven points as the race for the White House entered its final four days, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Friday.

[Tuckerfan]

@Leaper

WTF? Drudge says there’s a Zogby poll showing McCain UP by ONE.

Where the hell did that come from?

IIRC, nobody paid any attention Zogby’s polls until after the 2000 election, because he was the only one who picked Bush to win (that Bush did so based only a technicality, meaning that had Florida had its shit together, Zogby would have been the only pollster to get the election wrong), and I think that he made the “call” on The Daily Show that Kerry was going to win the election.

[DSeid]

GIGO beats me to it.

Now maybe, just maybe, Drudge has had some data leaked to him, and the one day sample for Friday in Zogby’s 3 day rolling average (due to be released in the wee morning hours) is particularly a good pull for McCain. That is not data they generally release and for good reason - it is more likely to be volatile crap. But if true then Zogby will “show” a modest narrowing tomorrow. And if Drudge is just pulling out of his backside then that will be apparent too.

[Beadalin]

Relevent response from fivethirtyeight:

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don’t like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don’t move without a reason (or at least they don’t move much).

[askeptic]

Has anybody mentioned Ken Duberstein?

Former Reagan chief of staff Ken Duberstein told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria this week he intends to vote for Democrat Barack Obama on Tuesday.

[EddyTeddyFreddy]

@Chronos

McCain’s an absolute fool to defend Arizona. If Arizona’s even close, then Obama is already so far ahead in the rest of the country that he’s won anyway, with or without it.

The same argument also says that Obama shouldn’t bother with Arizona, of course. But he’s far enough ahead, both politically and financially, that he can afford to go for symbolic victories, and to give his opponent more opportunities to make mistakes.

If I recall correctly, McCain started robocalling Arizona even before Obama decided to throw some ads at the state. So what does that say about the internals McCain’s campaign must be looking at?

[dropzone]

@Tuckerfan

McCain pinning his hopes on TV and not “boots on the ground.”

Why would that affect his ground game?

Oh, I see! You’re saying McCain has to PAY for “volunteers” while Obama has people clamoring to work for FREE, even driving themselves in from out of state for the honor. Question answered.

And Shayna, I’m seeing regular people not just wanting to be part of this but wanting to grind their boots in the Old Order. Not literally, like the Italians hanging Mussolini from a lamppost or French people shaving the heads of women who collaborated with the Nazis, but in the good ol’ fashion way of voting so you can say, “Take THAT, motherfucker!” It brings tears to my eyes when people in other lands do it, and it’s making me damn proud to see Americans doing it.

[Equipoise]

This is kind of sad and pathetic. On the one hand, that is. On the other, it makes me grin like a grinning fool! I imagine those who hang around FiveThirtyEight have already read it, it’s a look at what’s happening in all 50 states. While Obama’s offices are bustling, most of McCain’s are dead, or closed. It’s a fascinating read

The Big Empty
…
When the offices are open, they have reduced hours. We can confidently plan to get evening good-light photographs of a town after we visit the local McCain office, because we know it will be closing by 5 pm, as the office in Wilmington, North Carolina was this past Sunday. The plan is, get to inevitably closed/closing McCain office, get an hour of photos near sunset, then visit the bustling local Obama office.

In Cortez, CO, we had Republican volunteers pose for action-shot photos. The same in Española, New Mexico. Posed. For some time at the outset, we were willing to give Republicans the benefit of the doubt. They convinced us they were really working, and that we had just had unfortunate timing. It wasn’t until the pattern of “just missed it” started to sound like a drumbeat in our ears that we began to grow skeptical. We never “just missed” any of the Obama volunteer work, because it goes on nonstop, every day, in every office, in every corner of America.

…
These ground campaigns do not bear any relationship to one another. One side has something in the neighborhood of five million volunteers all assigned to very clear and specific pieces of the operation, and the other seems to have something like a thousand volunteers scattered throughout the country. Jon Tester’s 2006 Senate race in Montana had more volunteers – by a mile – than John McCain’s 2006 presidential campaign.

When Republican volunteers talk to us about how much enthusiasm and participation they notice in fellow volunteers, they mention how many people have come to pick up yard signs or bumper stickers. We haven’t yet seen a single Republican canvasser. (The one in Cortez, CO was staged; she said canvassing is the kind of thing she would do, and we made a decision to do the picture because we were concerned with not presenting “balance.” There is no balance in the facts.)

…

Nice pictures too.

[dropzone]

On the other hand, my boss just bought a semi-automatic rifle and hollow point bullets (he wants the bullets to stay in the rioter and not wreck his decorating) for when the liberals and n****rs invade Coral Gables to celebrate victory/lament defeat.

[Tuckerfan]

@dropzone

On the other hand, my boss just bought a semi-automatic rifle and hollow point bullets (he wants the bullets to stay in the rioter and not wreck his decorating) for when the liberals and n****rs invade Coral Gables to celebrate victory/lament defeat.

Gun sales are up across the country. Because, doncha know, that with the economy in the toilet, Obama’s first priority is going to be going after guns.

[Equipoise]

@dropzone

And Shayna, I’m seeing regular people not just wanting to be part of this but wanting to grind their boots in the Old Order…in the good ol’ fashion way of voting so you can say, “Take THAT, motherfucker!” It brings tears to my eyes when people in other lands do it, and it’s making me damn proud to see Americans doing it.

I love this thread, and each and every one of you. I’m proud too. I just wish I hadn’t waited so long to shed my cynicism and suspicion about this election. You folks who believed all along, helped make it happen, you are special human beings.

[dropzone]

Ahem. I didn’t shed my cynicism at the door. I still expect that the Pubs will try every trick to drag this out and into the Supreme Court.

Oh, that’s “pessimism,” isn’t it? Well, one or the other, I’ve long said that a cynic OR a pessimist is a Hopeless Romantic who’s been burnt too many times. And I cannot set my Romanticism aside, no matter how much my cynical wife laughs at me[del] and questions my sexuality[/del] (did I say that out loud?).

[Equipoise]

@dropzone

Ahem. I didn’t shed my cynicism at the door. I still expect that the Pubs will try every trick to drag this out and into the Supreme Court.

Same here, but now I believe that it just won’t matter. I think he’ll win with enough margin to thwart the shenanigans, and any shenanigans will be stomped on fast and furiously by the Obama lawyer brigade.

Well, I hope, anyway (ok, there’s a tinsytiny bit of fear left, but most of it’s gone).
In other news, Doonesbury calls the election!

[vison]

If I was a praying person, I’d be praying.

I hope this goes right. I can only imagine how much it means to you guys south of the line.

Good luck, and, hey: God Bless the United States of America and Barack Hussein Obama.

(Figuratively speaking, of course.)

[diku]

@Bayard

Shayna, I hesitate to take issue with your posts, since I just love your enthusiasm and energy. However, Louisville is about 100 miles from Cincinnati. I think you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone here who considers Louisville to be in Cincinnati’s sphere. The Cincinnati area airport is in KY, but it’s only like 10 miles from downtown. Louisville (a fine city to visit, by the way), is just…different.

And to go even farther with this, the three counties in Kentucky that surround Cincinnati (Kenton, Campbell, and Boone) are about a solidly Republican areas as you’re going to find. Very conservative, very Catholic, and Obama doesn’t stand a chance.

[Equipoise]

@dropzone

Why would that affect his ground game?

Oh, I see! You’re saying McCain has to PAY for “volunteers” while Obama has people clamoring to work for FREE, even driving themselves in from out of state for the honor. Question answered.

And he’s paying for some people who aren’t gonna vote for him.

McCain Hiring Field Organizers Who Support Obama
The UK Times reports that some of John McCain’s canvassers are actually supporting Barack Obama – they’re just there for the money.

[dropzone]

@Equipoise

…and any shenanigans will be stomped on fast and furiously by the Obama lawyer brigade.

LOL! That is a force I hadn’t thought about but is one that can not only TIP the election, but TEAR IT FORCIBLY FROM McCAIN’S HANDS!

All this campaign, McCain has dissed Obama’s past, not realizing that he wields the Constitutional Lawyers from Hell! Or Heaven, depending on your leanings.

ETA: Either way, from HARVARD!
How I missed an opportunity for alliteration is beyond me.