I’m here in PA (from CA) to visit my cousin and do some last-minute canvassing for Obama (and it turns out she is hosting 3 random Obama-supporting strangers doing the same thing). Apparently some of the Obama volunteers have been getting fraudulent phone calls telling them their volunteering shifts have been cancelled.
If I have a spare moment tomorrow I’ll try to describe what it’s like in one of the most battlegroundy of battleground states.
Please do!
I honestly don’t see how Obama could possibly lose. If he were to lose, then that would be it for me as far as any and all polling and endorsements go. Not that I ever paid that much attention to endorsements anyway, but the preponderance of everyone’s opinion, endorsement, thought, poll, etc, is so heavily weighted in Obama’s favor that I just don’t see how it could go otherwise. And don’t give me any malarkey about voter fraud; what I’ve seen reported so far I think are isolated incidents, and there’s no way anyone could get away with fraud in such a closely examined election anway.
This is not to say anyone should get cocky and take it for granted that Obama has already won. No, get out there and vote and campaign as if it were a literal dead-heat tie.
Hard to believe 2000 was only eight years ago and already people forget the Katherine Harris SCOTUS drama. You know those 8 to 10 hour lines you see in the news? They are not in heavily Republican areas. How many people do you think will have to abandon their place in line to get to work. You are right voter fraud is not an issue. Voter suppression is a very real issue.
The wife & I just got home from a long-ass day of canvassing in Indianapolis. I guess that every square inch of the northwestern part of the state had already been covered so they were asking people to head on down south.
An impressive GOTV effort is going on down there. We were sent to a satellite office in the general area we were covering in northern Indy. A lot of people buzzing in and out, people bringing in food in preperation for a long couple of days. Another section where they were training about 12 people for canvassing. Another group of tables where they were handing out assignments. We were actually sent to a… ummm… sub-satellite office which was someone’s home so they could hit each region on a neighborhood by neighborhood basis. When we got there, there, the lady said that they only had two canvassing packets left for that section and gave us one. We were primarily going early voting efforts – letting people know that the Indiana early voting offices were still open, where they were and making sure they knew of their regular Nov 4th polling location in case they weren’t early voting.
Of course, our particular neighborhood was in the suburban region in northern Indianapolis where the wealthier Republican neighborhoods lie. McCain signs a-plenty! A few initial “You’re wasting your times” later, we hit our first gentleman who was in fact planning to vote for Obama and wanted to early vote yet. After him came a few others and we started seeing more Obama signs. I’ll say that, although some people were a bit curt, we didn’t encounter any open hostility. The places we were doing were probably the toughest neighborhoods to win over in the Indianapolis area and a place where each vote would definately count. Judging from the maps in the canvassing offices, the Obama effort is hitting those neighborhoods hard and no stone is going unturned. After completing our packet, we headed back to the house and were greeted with a free home-cooked meal and some chit-chat with the local staffers. The wife managed to pick up some Obama swag to make her feel better about not owning a t-shirt like me. Someone came in and reported that the satellite early voting office (there’s a lot of satellite stuff going on because the main offices are swamped) currently had a line of about 300 people waiting to vote; almost entirely Obama supporters. It was getting late and they already had lawyers there to ensure that everyone who was in line by 7:00pm was afforded their chance to cast a ballot as required by law.
I have no idea if Obama will take Indiana. Like I said, we were in the hardest neighborhoods of Indianapolis and it was about 3:1 in both McCain signs and front door rejections. But if he loses Indiana, it won’t be for a lack of effort from the Obama campaign and its volunteers. If he wins it, I’ll definately know why.
As a final happy note, I came home to find an e-mail informing me that my Obama election night rally tickets for Grant Park will be e-mailed to me on Monday. 
Are you open to the possibility that there are long lines for early voting in Democratic areas because there are so many voting for Obama and not so long in GOP strongholds because many of the GOP are not bothering to vote, let alone to vote early? Especially if it means waiting in any kind of line.
Even if the long lines are due to policies making it difficult in some areas to actually vote, there’s a strong possibility that this year more people are willing to stick it out and endure the red tape. Motivation is high.
God I hope so. But the fact that machines are breaking down and republicans are doing everything they can to shorten poll hours and we are having to file lawsuits to force some Secretaries of State to provide paper ballots in case machines breakdown the fact that some Dem areas have one machine for every 750 people and Rep areas have 1 for every 300 and any of countless other suspicious things make your scenario hard to fathom.
A friend on another forum disputed my claim since no one was shooting rocksalt at us, so I’ll admit that I probably engaged in a bit of exaggeration without meaning to. Just to prevent anyone from thinking I’m being misleading.
Suffice to say, it wasn’t hospitable territory although, as I said, no one was overtly hostile.
Some big national numbers for Obama in one-off polls: 13 points from CBS and 12 from USA Today/Gallup (different sample from their tracking poll). I have been curious about why some polls have been showing such big numbers for Obama and Nate provides a simple answer: the cellphone effect.
Which means that we shouldn’t be too surprised if Obama wins in a big blowout on Tuesday. It would be nice if we could get poll numbers using cellphones at the state level and also state-level RV numbers. I wouldn’t be surprised if things are actually more comfortable for Obama at state level than some recent polls indicate.
Anyway the bottom line is that Obama has run a good campaign and reached a winning position. Now it’s time for his ground staff, volunteers and of course voters to seal the deal and deliver a historic win on Tuesday. So it’s good to hear stories from the ground; keep them coming !
The other reason that the polls may be wrong is that they are often filtered for “likely voters.” Pollsters try to guess, based on past voting history, whether the people the interview actually will vote in the upcoming election.
However, if the early voting is any indication, none of the pollsters have any clue who the likely voters are. Black and hispanic votes may have been dramatically under-counted in the pre-election polls.
It’s all a guessing game. Me, I’m going to estimate on the high side, because I think that many of the polls do dramatically underestimate the likely voter models.
Presently I’m cautiously optimistic about NC. Obama’s got a supermassive GOTV operation in the final 72 hours that will dwarf anything ever seen here before. The rain on Tues might actually play in our favor because of the early voting numbers, which are about 60% of 2004 turnout, and Democrats have eclipsed Republicans by more than 20% at the polls. So the inclement weather will probably adversely effect the Republican voters in disproportionate numbers.
And to give a few warm fuzzies from Anecdotaland, my Republican Father has been phonebanking fellow vets (changing a few minds, even); a long time Republican straight-ticket friend just left the presidential slot blank; and my brother’s racist ex-girlfriend who not three months ago couldn’t find a kind word for Obama has – shockingly I come to find out – cast her ballet for him!!!
With any luck, the election could be decided before the Left Coast gets off work Tuesday night. I can hope, at least.
I don’t know what the hell the 527 outfit that trotted out the Wright ads now was thinking. It’s blindingly obvious to me that the main effect will be a backlash from people who are sick and tired of the whole election crap.
keep in mind that in states that have early voting, not all of the polling places are open.
most states just have several places open here and there.
come tuesday hundreds of polls will be open. and the lines will be faster.
in my little 'hood of phila. on tuesday we have polling places about every 3-4 city block.
the place i go to handles one side of brown, one side of poplar and one side of 26th street to one side of 24th. all told that is a 4 block area of houses and a block of 3-4 apts per house houses.
the last 2 elections i’ve been a number in the high 100’s and the low 200’s. there are 2 machines going at the place.
the big apt buildings in the area have thier own polling place in the lobby. and the schools in the area have 6-10 machines. the lines will go fast.
From Quinnipiac University poll:
FLORIDA: Obama 47, McCain 45
OHIO: Obama 50, McCain 43
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 52, McCain 42
Dates conducted: Oct. 27-Nov. 2. Error margin: 2.3-2.5 points.
I hope you’re right. The highly successful voter registration drive plus the lack of early voting in Pennsylvania has me concerned about the time it’s going to take to vote.
The race may or may not be “tightening”, but my sphincter sure as hell is. I’m a pessimist, so every sign that Obama’s lead is slipping in any state just freaks me out. A couple weeks ago, I was starting to get giddy at the thought of a double-digit smackdown in the popular vote. Now I just cling to the hope that Obama will win. I have this nagging fear that all the polls are wrong and that we’re all going to be sitting around Wednesday saying, “What the hell happened?” I expect to have a series of small heart attacks tomorrow night as results come in. That reminds me: I have to pick up a bottle of scotch on the way home.
Freaking Florida again 
If the other values in that poll are accurate, no one is going to care which way FL goes.
Heh. Those numbers actually made me breathe easier overall.