I admit up front I don’t have the cite for this poll, though I am sure I could dig it up if anyone wants it.
Anyway: I saw these poll results on Hardball the other day. A standard “If the election were held today, who would you vote for?” George W. vs. Generic Democrat. Result: a dead heat, 44% to 44%. Then in the same poll, same question except they added McCain as an independant. Result: George W. 42%, McCain and Generic Democrat both somewhere in the 20’s.
You read that right. W’s number only goes down 2 points in the second scenario, and he is the clear winner, as opposed to the first one, in which he only ties.
So, is this poll accurate? Does McCain draw more support from Democrats than Republicans? Should Bush supporters be egging him on, trying to get him to go for the independant candidacy, even though conventional wisdom says this would hurt W?
I heard the same thing (from the same poll) on the radio a few days back (no, it wasn’t Rush Limbaugh). I simply shrugged, noting that people would usually think differently in a simple poll that has no official bearing, and a real election. I imagine that a lot of people, in a real election, would head towards McCain, stop and think, “Uh-oh, if I vote for McCain, Dubya could win!” and then go and switch to Mr. Generic Democrat.
I also think the scales would be tipped heavily if a famous, respected Democrat were named, instead of a “generic Democrat” (wouldn’t that be an interesting name on the poll sheet? “President Generic Democrat”… what would Europe think of us then?).
Finally, keep in mind that just about any poll should be taken with a big grain of salt.
Coming off an election that was handed to W. by Nader supporters, you might want to rethink that… {sigh}
But seriously, the poll results don’t surprise me. Many hardcore republicans would certainly not abandon the GOP if McCain did. Maybe a few moderates, but they might have voted for the Dem anyway.
This poll doesn’t strike me as odd, given the voting patterns in the primaries. McCain whumped Bush in the states that have open primaries (i.e. - anyone can vote in the Republican primaries, not just members of the Republican party), but Bush whumped McCain in the states with closed primaries (i.e. - only Republican party members can vote in the Republican primary).
McCain has a demonstrated ability to get votes from non-Republicans, and also a demonstrated ability to alienate some Republicans.
I remember a similar poll involving that dipshit Ross Perot before he officially announced that he was running. In that one Perot got nearly 40% of the vote. We all know what really happened.
Yes, but wouldn’t the conventional wisdom be that a vote for McCain would hurt W, seeing as how they are both Republicans?
Yes, but it doesn’t actually say that. It says “a Democrat”. Shouldn’t McCain not just split off votes from the Democrat, but also from W, at least more than just 2 points?
I don’t think so. First both Ds and Rs have a core voter base of about 40% of the voters, so that’s just 4 points higher than the percentage of core democrats. Second, an equal percantage would vote for W. Third, a specific Democrat will have negatives (and perhaps positives) that a “generic” Democrat does not.
Why in the world would McCain run for President as an Independent? He couldn’t possibly win. He’d lose his Republican seniority, thereby losing his shot at a committee chairmanship if the Reps re-take the Senate.
Oh, the media would love it. It would be an entertaining story, and they like JM. But, what’s in it for him?
The old saying goes “You can’t beat somebody with nobody,” although this poll suggests that Bush is beatable even by a “nobody”. But can anyone name a Democrat who’d qualify as a plausible Presidential candidate while still adhering to the pollster’s definition of “generic”?
No poll means anything until after the 2004 primaries, and this one means even less than most others. Things change too fast and the electorate’s attention span is too short.
But, since we’re taking our own mini-poll here on McCain’s chances, I expect him to run again in 2004 as a “New (i.e. moderate not beholden to the Fundies etc.) Republican” against an inept-and-corrupt-looking Bush, on pretty much the same personality-based platform he used last time. But the novelty factor will have worn off a bit, he’ll have become a bit tiresome, Bush will have the legendary “advantages of incumbency”, and will get the customary renomination of a sitting President. A reinvigorated Gore will get the Democratic renomination against the usual cast of a few ideologues and other lightweights, and will be (re-)elected. Any bets?
Why does it surprise anyone that McCain has heavy support from Democratic voters? He’s been voting as a Democrat for a while now. That’s why there is all this talk about getting him to jump ship.
Since the election, McCain has taken a hard turn to the left. He voted against Bush’s tax plan. He has changed his opinion on gun control and now favors it. He’s in favor of the Democrat’s version of the Patient’s bill of rights. His campaign finance reform bill has heavy Democratic support (which I predict will change, but…)
Why do you think there is so much pressure on him to jump ship and become a Democrat?
As Bill Maher pointed out, “It says something that he could take five years in a North Vietnamese prison, being constantly tortured, but can’t take another minute of Trent Lott.”
…and if he did not start raving paranoically about the Bush campaign trying to ruin his daughter’s wedding by circulating lesbian pictures of her. I think it was that one that convinced most Americans that, good businessman or not, he’s a few shelves short of a bookcase.
I don’t think the situation would be the same as with Nader. If McCain ran, he’d be running as a moderate, and thus, his potential supporters would be different than Nader’s, who were mostly out there on the far left. Nader kept saying how the two parties were the same, so didn’t really matter who won. I don’t see McCain ever doing that, because he knows they’re not.
Obviously the support base is different, but that’s no reason to assume his supporters would suddenly decide to drop him because they feared another Bush win. As we saw, even a few percent can make a difference.