If McCain were to be elected President this year, who would be the likely Democratic nominee in 2012?
Would Obama have a good chance, having already become the presumptive nominee in 2008? Or would Hillary have a better chance, with Obama already having lost the general election (despite her not winning the 08 nomination)? Or somebody else?
I don’t think either of them would have a shot – Obama would be tainted by losing the election, and Hillary would be blamed for keeping party divisions alive long after the nomination outcome was known.
C) Somebody else. Obama is very much of a moment candidate, or a movement candidate if you like- although that’s perhaps a little grandiose. It’s hard to see him replicating this kind of success in 2012 if he doesn’t win. And Clinton would have the same problem as Gore or, say, Dole in 2000 - after you’ve gone this far in the process, it’s hard to get people to re-revaluate their views of you because press coverage is so high, and the race was so long. Granted, they were nominees and she didn’t quite make it, but she got so close and campaigned for so long - 18 months or so - that she would face the same obstacles. Plus, she really burned some bridges. You can see here on the SDMB that a fair number of people who would have been okay, if not enthusiastic, about voting for her a year ago do not want to do so now. I won’t pretend that this board represents the mainstream of the Democratic party, but there are a significant number of people who feel that way, in my opinion. And you could argue that Obama, even if he didn’t burn his bridges quite so dramatically, is only going to have a harder time winning over groups who weren’t immediately into him if he has to run another primary campaign.
So I think that, as usual, Democrats would be looking for a fresh face. It’s hard to say who, really, because who knows what’ll happen in the next three or four years. I think Bill Richardson would still have a shot. Mark Warner might change his mind about not running a national campaign.
It would depend great deal on what happened in the ensuing years, and how the election was won by McCain.
If it’s a close election, and McCain is a freaking disaster, then maybe one or the other of Clinton and Obama would have a real shot. But if that’s how it plays out, I would bet on Gore.
Michelle Obama has said that we will have one and only one chance to elect her husband. I suspect that is probably right.
I do think it’s a bit of a shame, though, as I think he could again be an attractive candidate years from now – not in 2012, that’s too soon after his defeat – if he remained in public life.
Hilary’s chance is gone forever. She will now aim to take Ted Kennedy’s role in the senate for the next 20 years, I expect.
At the beginning of this election cycle, the thing I kept hearing about Obama was that he was pretty virgin and squeaky clean, i.e. hadn’t taken any stances on much of anything controversial. If he had to wait another four years, he’d be expected to take some presidential stances on things, and people would be watching him more closely. His campaign in four years would have to about being something more than just new and fresh.
I think Hillary will keep doing what she believes in doing, for better or for worse. Americans seem to hate her, so walking on water would probably get her accused of, well, walking on water. It would suddenly become a bad thing.
It might depend on how Obama reacts to losing, and what he does between now and 2012. If it is a close election, and he concedes graciously and then goes on to trying to achieve his agenda in a Democrat-controlled Congress, he has a shot. If he spends a lot of time whining about how we are all racists in America and election fraud and stuff like that - probably not so much.
But four years of experience in the Senate is a two-edged sword for Obama. If he seems to be getting things done on a national scale, and really becomes a leader in the Senate, then his chances will be enhanced. If his major asset is that he speaks well and allows people to project their hopes onto him, then sooner or later the blush will be off the apple and no one (outside Illinois) is going to give a tin shit anymore.
Hilary, on the other hand, is a spent force. All she had going for her is the feeling of inevitability people had about her. She had put up with Bill’s shenanigans for thirty years, now it was time for her to come into her own and ascend to the throne. Unfortunately, a lot of Democrats now agree with most Republicans about what a sleazebag she is, and Slick Willie seems to have blown whatever good will he retained for being one of the few Democrats who could get re-elected to the White House. So “Former Future First Female President” is the highest office she will ever achieve.
Regards,
Shodan
there is no way the republicans will win the white house this year… no way in hell. I admit when I see the democratic leadership leave for summer break before handling the oil drilling and energy crisis, I think to myself, what fuckups. How are they ever going to win this fall when they refuse to acknowledge and work on the needs of the people. I was floored, really.
I think so too. If he came back in 2012 I’d honestly think a lot less of him. I’m not sure he’d make it past the primaries.
Wanna give me 5-to-1 odds? If you’re so sure, gimme 5-to-1, and I’ll plunk $20 on McCain.
CNN’s metapoll has OBama ahead by 1, which at the polls means McCain by at least four and easy victory.
I’ll take it. No problem…there are so many reasons [too many to list] that this is a democratic year and I would absolutely take that bet…
Aside from that - to the OP - Obama might if it was a close race, McCain ran and re-ran. Clinton - nope her ship left the harbor. And I’m not so sure she is going to pull a Ted Kennedy either. I think she is going to do something that will make a lot more money.
We don’t do things by popular vote down here. As we all remember from 1876, one candidate could beat their opponent by more than 3% in the popular vote and still lose the election. Same thing happened in 2000, although it was by less than one percent.
Nationwide polling results don’t mean jack. Especially in August.
I would agree with you but I learned that lesson in 2004.
Yep, and so did millions of Americans who are pissed off at the last 8 years, including many republicans… I hope we don’t make that mistake again.
That’s what everyone said (about 2000) in '04 
Yes they did! But there are more people now? 
Obama would not run again if defeated this year. I would bet that Hillary is already planning her 2012 campaign on that possibility.
Even if the election fraud proves to be real?
I’m not taking anything for granted.
Which is probably the “safer” route, actually.