Technically it will be the Primaries, of course, but surely if Obama is seen as a loser, then quiet words will be said long beforehand, right? After all there’s Clinton ready with a stiletto in hand. And she won’t stand against Obama - to do so would ruin her chances for 2016.
So, mid 2011? Late 2011?
HRC is not running in 2016. And I don’t expect the Dems to drop Obama in 2012.
Did you expect the Pubs to drop W in 2004?
Really? I expect her to.
They have already decided for him.
For heaven’s sake, they went with Carter in 1980. They’re not going to nominate anybody over a sitting President unless he comes up with a Watergate-level scandal, and probably not even then.
Regards,
Shodan
Like any sitting President from any party, the “dead girl or live boy” rule applies here. Switching from Obama would be a bigger liability than keeping him unless some REALLY big scandal emerges.
A better question is whether HRC will replace Biden as VP in 2012. I’ve no reason to assume that she will but it’d be a clear indication that the Dems are teeing her up for 2016.
2012 is a long long way off. It’s a mistake to look at 2012 as if the situation that exists today will prevail.
If I had to put money on it, I bet Obama wins reelection in 2012.
I don’t see why they would, or why she would want to. As VP Clinton wouldn’t get to do anything meaningful for the next 4 years and as has been noted many times before being VP doesn’t particularly help you running for president. Especially if you’ve been Sec. of State and the VP is someone unelectable like Biden.
HRC would be better off staying where she is and having a non-runner as VP IMO. That’s if she wants to run at all, which is far from certain.
Indeed. It’s difficult to see how the GOP could find someone with wide enough support to win election in 2012 bar something unnusual happening.
The Tea Party movement makes it even more difficult for a candidate to walk the tight-rope between middle-ground support and satisfying the base. In theory a middle-ground candidate could do it because the Republican’s hate of Obama woud be a good enough motivator to vote that they wouldn’t have to cater to the base too much, but the Tea Party wouldn’t allow that IMO.
I expect anyone the GOP nominates will have to have signed up to the Tea Party bat-shittery in order to get through the primaries and thus be completely unelectable.
The knife or the shoe?
Hillary can’t jump in without first giving up her current post, which she dearly loves and has thrust herself body and soul into. I don’t think she has any interest in running again, certainly not in 2012.
I can see Obama pulling an LBJ and deciding that the best thing to do for party and country is to not seek renomination. The choice is his alone, if he decides to run it would be inconceivable that he would face a serious challenge.
The only reason I could see is if Biden actively steps down due to some serious health issue, but if Dick Cheney could last eight years I’m sure Joe will manage fine.
I don’t think that’s the real issue, although it may be a factor as well.
Incumbent presidents have the upper hand, in general. Obama in particular is a bright guy with a likeable personality, which is a huge huge advantage, IMO. He’s not too popular now because 1) the economy has not recovered, and 2) he’s spent an enormous amount of money and made huge changes with no apparant positive results.
But the economy goes in cycles. By 2012, it’s likely to be better than it is today regardless of anything Obama does, and Obama will remind everyone again and again that in 2008 we were about to go into a Great Depression due to the Bush policies, until he came along and saved the day. And he’d like to have solved even more of our problems but when you consider how truly disastrous the Bush policies were you realize how far we’ve come. Plus if the Republicans win control of the House, that will be another reason why Obama has not made as much progress as he would like to have, but look how much he’s actually accomplished in the face of these obstacles.
Add it all up and my money is on Obama, regardless of the ideology of whoever runs against him. Though obviously a tea-party oriented person will find it even harder.
So far, I’ve not really seen this tea party phenomenon as a big deal, in terms of presidential politics. None of the major names being bandied about are TP, AFAIK, other than Palin, and I don’t think she’s a legitimate contender.
So far the only place I can think of where the TP has had the type of impact you describe is Harry Reid’s Senate seat. (Though I may have missed something.)
There was that special Congressional election in New York a while back. (Tea Party candidate beats mainstream Republican in primary, centrist Democrat wins (with IIRC the primary loser’s endorsement) in a mainly Republican district).
Why would they decide to replace a certain win?
The other one I can think of is Florida Senate, where Crist now has a chance and is likely to caucus with the Dems if he wins.
And perhaps Alaska, but the Republican has such a large built-in advantage there it is unlikely to matter.
Didn’t a more Tea Partyish candidate win in the NH primary as well (Ayotte, perhaps?) - still a decent pickup chance, but not as strong as it could have been?
As for the OP, the Democrats will not be replacing Obama on the ticket unless something significant and unforeseen occurs, or he decides not to run. Many presidents (including St. Reagan) have been as unpopular as Obama is now during their first terms and have still run for and often won re-election.
She’ll be 69 years old in 2016, which is up there for a Presidential nominee. It’s the same age Reagan was when he became President, and just a few years younger than Bob Dole and John McCain when they ran, and in all three of those cases, their age was a factor in the race.
Then again, though, women have longer life expectancies than men.
yeah but her tits will be halfway to the floor.
Cite? :eek:
That would be telling. 
My OP assumes he’s not.
As Reagan said, “I refuse to make an issue of my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”
Even if he’s not, you just don’t try to primary a sitting president who’s running for re-election.