Michigan Gubernatorial Race

I will say about Gretchen: Her nasally Michigan accent is a bit grating. It was the first thing my wife said after watching the ad. And I say this as a native Michigander who’s been told on more than one occasion that he has a thick Michigan accent.

Seems like every time I go on the net I see an anti-Whitmer add of dubious origin. I think Thanadar is behind them because they talk about her supposedly cozy relationship with insurance and drug companies.

Actually, after a little research, I’ve discovered that the group has Republican ties, but it sure looks like it’s hitting her from the left.

Michiganders don’t have accents, everyone else talks wrong.

I’m going to cast my vote for Gretchen. As good as Abdul is, I’m afraid there aren’t enough fair-minded people in the state to allow a Muslim to win. I’ve already noted the racist Facebook post targeting him, should he win the nomination it would really mobilize the bigot vote.

Schutte has been planning this run for years. I think he grandstanded both in the Flint water crisis and in the Nassar case. Trouble is, he is as likeable as a hemorrhoid.

In the end, unless we can flip the gerrymandered legislature, Gov. Whitmer is going to have absolutely no help from Republicans, just like Granholm. Republicans would rather have a Democratic governor fail than help her succeed and get re-elected.

Schutte is also taking point on the attempts to scuttle the “Voters, not politicians” amendment initiative.

This is an anti-gerrymandering proposal that, unlike most other petition drives, managed to collect the requisite number of signatures without resorting to paid circulators. It would take redistricting out of the hands of the state legislature and invest that power in an independent commission. Needless to say this would not be good news for the Republicans in our state. The article does not mention that in addition to that long-term effect, there is also the short-term effect that the presence, on the November ballot, of this initiative would help drive Democratic turnout. Given his candidacy for Governor and his hope therefore to be on that ballot, this strikes me as a conflict of interest and I can’t help but wonder if anybody is challenging it on that basis.

The fatal flaw in referendums is that the legislature can easily void them. Remember the minimum wage referendum? That was pre-empted by a law that raised it a lesser amount, and because it contained funding it was immune from being changed or repealed by referendum. So look for the Rethugs to pass a law that stipulates that redistricting will be done as it always has and appropriate a little money to it and presto- no referendum can touch it.

IANAL, but I think that referendums to pass (or repeal) laws are a different breed of cat than referendums to change the Constitution. I don’t the latter is subject to the same kind of gamesmanship as the former. For instance, there was talk of a law to preempt the recreation marijuana vote scheduled for November (and also expected to drive Democratic turnout).

Yes, the minimum wage law was not an amendment. But is the gerrymandering fix a proposed amendment? I think you’re correct, amendments passed by referendum are immune to legislative chicanery.

This confuses me a bit. If his only criteria for party affiliation was which side seemed to have the best shot at winning, does that mean that all his progressive ideals and beliefs he touts in his campaign are totally illegitimate? I mean, there is no way he could have run as a (R) and called for universal healthcare, $15 minimum wage, LGBTQ rights, etc.

That’s the suspicion around these parts. He has no actual opinions, and shaped his platform around what he thought would garner him the most support. Just a really rich guy who had nothing better to do than throw his money at a governor’s race.

In other news, Abdul had a bit of a boost from Alexandria O-C this past weekend, as they barnstormed the state and had pretty nice turnout (Flint: 500! Detroit: 700! Grand Rapids: 1,200! Ypsilanti: Crowd way over capacity for the venue!)

Now, this weekend, Bernie himself will be in Michigan doing GOTV rallies with Abdul in Detroit and Ypsi.

Gretchen wishes she had this level of enthusiasm. Really hope Gretchen, should she win next Tuesday, think about Abdul as her running mate. And, should Abdul win, he might want to consider Gretchen. Aside from the healthcare, I don’t think they’re that far apart.

Also, on the Republican side: Caley accuses Schuette of only working 104 days in the past eight years.

And apparently, when he was working, he was having his staff do political work for Low-Energy Jeb!

And more from the Republicans: An outfit calling itself “Better Jobs/Stronger Families (somehow they left out puppies)” is running this ad linking Republican candidate Calley to Democratic governor Jennifer Granholm.

And while not explicitly related to the governor’s race, the Michigan SC ruled tonight that the anti-gerrymandering proposal will be on the November ballot. Praise be! I was actually feeling sick about how they might rule. I live in Ottawa County, the most conservative county in Michigan, and I can’t tell you how popular the canvassers for this initiative were in both Holland and Zeeland. There were ALWAYS lines to sign the petition every time I walked past them. This was a hugely popular ballot initiative with people. Business groups, not so much. It would’ve sucked majorly if the Supremes ruled against this. I actually have hope for the next decade in Michigan, that people’s votes for representation will actually matter.

Thanks, Calley. Gretchen can use this stuff in a couple months. Unless I’m terribly mistaken, it’s Whitmer-Shuette in November. If it had been Whitmer vs Thenadar OR El Sayed, it might be a close Democratic race. Instead, I think they’ll split the anti-establishment vote and Whitmer advances easily.

An internal poll commissioned by El-Sayed’s team released today has him a lot closer to Gretchen than the landline polls that have been done previously.

Gretchen Whitmer 33.2
Abdul El-Sayed 27.4
Not sure 24.3
Shri Thanedar 15.1

The “not sure” contingent is interesting. Especially considering this poll was done before AO-C came to the state (as well as Bernie’s final push). Wonder how much of that Abdul could snag before Tuesday as a result of the high profile rockstars coming out for him.

Abdul accused Whitmer of “money laundering” this week. Essentially of moving a half million in dark money through a couple of organizations into her campaign.

Ironically, while he was leveling this accusation, his campaign was taking some questionable money as well. About $62,000 from Rep. Abdullah Hammoud’s (D-Dearborn) PAC, specifically. How it happened: several out-of-state El-Sayed donors were maxed out on campaign contributions, so they gave some whoppers to Hammoud’s PAC, which then funneled a good chunk of that money into El-Sayed’s treasury a day or so later. Now, from what I’ve read, it’s against state law to make a contribution to a PAC with the expectation that it will be moved on to a candidate’s campaign committee.

Now, I just can’t imagine why several El-Sayed donors from out-of-state would suddenly decide to donate $90,000 to Rep. Hammoud, who represents a very solidly-blue state house district. Unless they had the expectation that it would be moved on to El-Sayed’s campaign committee tout suite.

I would’ve had less of a problem with this if Abdul hadn’t fucking Facebooked out that Gretchen Whitmer was guilty of money laundering at the exact same time his campaign was essentially accepting (potentially) illegally obtained donation dollars.

Story from Crains.

I seem to be talking to myself in this thread now, but damned if Abdul didn’t turn this into a race.

I’m hearing 1,400+ at Cobo today with Bernie, plus another hefty rally in Ypsi (didn’t catch any numbers on that one, but the video I saw looked like a sold-out concert at Pine Knob). Gretchen had about 300 at a picnic at a park in Detroit. Now, I know people at rallies don’t equal votes, but could we be smelling an upset? Bernie was polling way behind Hillary (like 20+ points) in '16, and he beat her by almost 20,000 votes. If Gretchen can’t get 1,000 people in the city of Detroit to come out for her for free food on a gorgeous Sunday before election day, well, I just don’t know if there’s enough there to overcome the enthusiasm around Abdul.

So this weekend I was supposed to do my homework about who to vote for and completely forgot. I guess I’ll do it tomorrow. Anyone have any recommendations as to who to vote against the most? I care more about keeping completely unqualified people out of office than getting someone with the “right” political views in.

I’m willing to vote in either side’s primary, too. (I voted for Kasich and Clinton in 2016.)

Seems to me that Shri is tanking now and Abdul is surging. Whether Gretchen hangs on is anyone’s guess. I like either Abdul or Gretchen, but I fear Islamophobes would turn out in droves and we’d be stuck with Shitty Shuette.