Mitt loses Iowa, Santorum wins; "split decision" says the GOP

From the Des Moines Register:

Could someone who knows more about the Iowa caucuses explain this for us? what impact, if any, will it have on the nomination process?

It makes no difference, at least technically. Iowa gives delegates out by the vote fraction, so whether Mitt wins by 8 or Santorum by 34, they both get the same number of delegates.

It lets Santorum say “I won Iowa” while on the stump, so I guess it gives him a slightly better talking point then “I was a close second in Iowa.”

Also, Romney looked like he might be the first non-incumbant Republican to sweep the early primary states, so I guess he lost the chance to have a footnote in the history books.

Hey, if Santorum can say “I won Iowa”, then Romney can just as easily say “I won all the early primary states” :slight_smile:

Too little too late?

Although it helps a Santorum 2016 candidacy if Romney loses.

It makes a huuuge difference - I now can say that I predicted the outcome correctly (I had Santorum or Paul first, Romney second). Finally, I make an accurate political pick!! Hurray!!!

In terms of the larger primary campaign, it’s a technicality. They got essentially the same number of votes, votes from a few areas couldn’t be verified so it isn’t even definitive, and Romney still has a much, much better shot at winning than Santorum does.

I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but I did have an interesting thought about this. Now that Santorum won Iowa, he can steal some of Gingrich’s momentum in South Carolina, making victory their a little easier for Romney.

Why do voters in South Carolina care if Santorum lost in Iowa by 8 votes or won by 34?

Regardless of its implications on the rest of the race, isn’t this a pretty embarrassing event for US elections in general? I know of course that party primaries are conducted by state party rules rather than by federal law, but to have eight precincts’ caucus vote totals simply go “missing” seems like madness. I wonder how caucus-goers in those eight precincts feel about their vote suddenly not counting, and to compound that to have to watch the state GOP shrug its shoulders and say, “Oops, sorry about that…guess we’ll never know who really won now.” Not to mention the federal GOP candidates themselves, as the linked article rightly argues:

A state party who seemingly can’t be bothered to count right, I guess.

This tells me that Iowa shouldn’t be considered so “holy” in the world of presidential primary/caucus season. They had four years to prep for this one thing they claim to hold in such high regard, but yet couldn’t even do it right.

I’ve never participated in a caucus but it’s also my understanding that the “Iowa caucuses” are just the first round of caucuses in Iowa, and aren’t even what directly selects delegates. Aren’t these just caucuses to select who gets to go to the next caucus where they actually vote on the actual delegates to the party convention?

Pretty much. I’m not sure how many layers there are, but the caucus night everyone paid attention to was when each local precinct was voting on delegates to send to the next tier–which is probably some kind of regional meeting where those delegates will in turn pick delegates to send to the state convention.

Basically, it’s Electoral Colleges all the way down.

Not “Iowa”. The Iowa GOP, big difference. The Iowa Democratic Party happened to pull off a perfectly fine caucus at the same time without any screwups at all.

You want to spend months getting dozens of phone calls a day from the most insane dregs of politics that the Republicans can throw at you, go ahead. Otherwise, appreciate the bullet that we in Iowa and New Hampshire have to take for the rest of you every four years. :smiley:

Iowa clearly screwed up and it IS a very big deal, because what you heard from all the mainstream media was 'Romney wins Iowa" coming out of Iowa. If the vote had been properly counted, what the mainstream media would have been saying is “Santorum Wins Iowa” a HUGE difference. Frankly, it stinks to high heaven, sounds like one of those dirty trick deals Republicans are so fond of using against Democrats. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the Republicans using such tactics on one another.

They don’t.

I’m reminded of a Fed Ex ad in which some aging, impoverished pool cleaner suddenly discovers a letter from 30 years earlier letting hick know he had been admitted to Harvard and he imagines what might have been.

If I felt a spark of humanity for Santorum I’d feel empathy for him wondering what might have been.

Instead, I’m laughing my ass off.

I’m also shamelessly plagarizing John Chait.

Talent borrows, genius steals.

Kinda. I went on from my precinct caucus in 1988 to be a delegate at the county convention. That’s where they selected the delegates to go on to the state convention, and at the state convention they choose who goes to the national convention. So it’s basically the first of a four-step process, or at least it was back then.

Yeah, what the media and most non-Iowans don’t get is that the GOP caucus process is largely held hostage by hard-line religious conservatives who would love nothing more than to have our government replaced by a Christian theocracy. And judging by the confusion in this year’s totals, apparently they see basic addition as an evil tool of godless, secular ‘scientists’ as well. To use the results of the Iowa Republican caucus as any kind of reflection on who’s the best national candidate is, frankly, hilarious. Pat Robertson and Mike Huckabee were superstars in Iowa caucuses, remember.

At least the Iowa Democrats have a much better record at pumping up the eventual nominee.