Agreed. I’ve heard this too. First that Toronto should have beaten Cleveland, then Boston should have beaten Cleveland, and now the Cubs should beat Cleveland. It is almost as if they were a 85 game winner who snuck into the WC game as opposed to a 94 game winning team that won their division.
Seriously, please!
:: crosses fingers and toes for the Tribe ::
Soler’s gaffe was in game 3 when the Cubs lost 1-0. Soler hit a ball deep to right. He thought it was foul. He hesitates out of the box. The video below also does not show that his run to first was a trot, and when Chisenhall misplayed the ball, Soler turned on his speed after he crossed first.
Maybe he couldn’t have scored, but in watching the game I thought he had a chance if he had sprinted hard out of the box. It would have taken a great throw, and relay, and tag, to get him. The point is, the Cubs are being a little too lackadaisical for my liking. Try searching for a video showing Soler the whole time. Let me know what you think.
I don’t think Soler would have been sent home, and had he been, I honestly think he would have been thrown out by thirty feet.
I mean, even when he’s at full speed he’s clearly laboring a bit. Soler has a bad hamstring. And he didn’t hesitate THAT long.
Again, it’s not the hesitation, it is mainly his lollygagging to first and then his burst of speed after crossing first. That is seen in a video that shows him the whole way.
It’s almost as if they’re a team built on great starting pitching that has two of their top three starters injured…
Let us pause during this off-day to remember the unsung never-had-a-chance-to-be-great baseball players like Spencer Pumpelly of the 1925 Washington Senators.
Got into one game at the age of 32. 1 IP, gave up 1 hit, 1 run, 9.00 ERA (lifetime stats).
Probably was overeducated.
Still better than Trevor Bauer.
If the limped into the postseason, maybe… but they finished September with a 16-11 record (second best full month of the season) and October with a 2-0 record. They have an absolutely fantastic bullpen and somehow, a team that was 2nd in a AL in Runs per Game, but 4th from the bottom in OPS+.
Yes, the losses of Carassco and Salazar were big, but I think folks ignored the rest of their strengths.
Yes the Indians seem to be underappreciated around the rest of the country. People are learning quickly, though. Still, Arrieta, and then Hendricks against a more-tired Kluber, this may go 7.
CBS Sports is saying it’ll be Kyle Hendricks going in Game 7 so I’ve updated my list.
Results and (Likely) Starters
G1: CHC 0 @ CLE 6; CHC LHP #34 Jon Lester @ CLE RHP #24 Corey Kluber; WP Kluber, LP Lester
G2: CHC 5 @ CLE 1; CHC RHP #49 Jake Arrieta @ CLE RHP #47 Trevor Bauer; WP Arrieta, LP Bauer
G3: CLE 1 @ CHC 0; CLE RHP #43 Josh Tomlin @ CHC RHP #28 Kyle Hendricks; WP LHP #24 Andrew Miller, LP RHP #6 Carl Edwards Jr, S RHP #37 Cody Allen
G4: CLE 7 @ CHC 2; CLE RHP #24 Corey Kluber @ CHC RHP #41 John Lackey; WP Kluber, LP Lackey
G5: CLE 2 @ CHC 3; CLE RHP #47 Trevor Bauer @ CHC LHP #34 Jon Lester; WP Lester, LP Bauer, S LHP #54 Aroldis Chapman
G6: CHC RHP #49 Jake Arrieta @ CLE CLE RHP #43 Josh Tomlin
G7: CHC RHP #28 Kyle Hendricks @ CLE RHP #24 Corey Kluber
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/probable_pitchers/?c_id=mlb&date=2016/11/01
He brings to mind Adam Greenberg, who was an outfielder for the Cubs. In his major league debut in 2005, he was hit in the head by the very first pitch he saw (or didn’t see, depending), suffering a compound fracture of his skull.
He didn’t face live major league pitching again until October 2, 2012. There was an online petition started by a Cub fan to get Greenberg an official at-bat. He signed a one-day contract with the Miami Marlins, and came in as a pinch-hitter. He struck out on 3 pitches.
His career stats line is:
2 games played, 2 plate appearances, 1 at-bat, 1 strikeout, .500 OBP
Back to Jorge Soler in Game 3, bottom of 7th, 2 outs, Indians leading 1-0 and had only given up 2 hits before Soler’s AB…
I’ve watched the replay several times and it’d be a close play at the plate. I think Soler had a good chance to score, but he squandered that opportunity by lolly-gagging to 1st. Heck, he nearly stopped at 1st, before turning on the afterburners just beyond the bag.
Yes, he had a good chance to score there. He blew it, the goat.
As I said in post 730,
I just watched this on replay a half-dozen times, and i really don’t think he would have made it.
Each time i watched it, i also used a stopwatch to time the play. It is impossible to time exactly when Soler arrived at third, because the camera was not on him at the time.
But from the crack of the bat to the time the ball hit the cutoff man, just off the infield dirt between first and second base, averaged 12.1 seconds, with a low of 12.03 and a high of 12.24. And at that time Soler had not quite arrived at third base, although he was also slowing down, having received the stop sign from the third base coach.
Even taking account of my imperfect human reflexes at starting and stopping the clock, the 12.1 second average i got is probably accurate enough for our purposes. I’m pretty sure that Jason Kipnis could have turned and fired the ball to home plate by about the 15-second mark.
And 15 seconds would be a very fast time for rounding the bases, even for a known speedster, which Soler really isn’t. A few of the fastest men in baseball have managed home to home in under 15 seconds. Dee Gordon managed it in just under 14, and Kevin Kiermeier did a 14.3. But most players can’t do that.
The FanGraphs Spd (Speed) stat is, by their own admission, not a perfect measure of baserunning speed, but by that measure Soler is slower than just about all of the guys listed on this page for the fastest home-to-home times in 2014.
He was definitely a bit slow getting out of the box, and if he had gotten to third faster, it might have been worth sending him home and hoping for an errant throw to the plate. Late in a 1-run game with two outs, it’s probably worth taking that chance if you think it’s going to be close. And a poor throw from Kipnis, or a bit of luck at the plate, might have allowed him to score.
So, like you, i do sort of blame him a bit for not sprinting from the get-go, because that might at least have made it worth trying to make the last 90 feet. But if the throw from Kipnis was on the money, i think he would have been meat at the dish.*
- As Van Earl Wright used to say.
The issue is not whether he would have made it or not. The issue is that the OPTION was taken away by his not running out the hit from the get-go.
He’s not the only Cub who’s been guilty of this during the Series. I have been screaming at them to run faster on more than one occasion. They seem fascinated by the idea of watching the ball potentially leave the stadium, as if watching the replay later isn’t good enough.
Cleveland, by comparison, has been regularly hustling out all sorts of hits, being safe at first when they might have been out, safe at second when they might have been held to a single, etc. It shows in the way they are manufacturing runs, runs the Cubs are failing to manufacture.
And what in the WORLD is up with Baez? In Game 3 Friday night, he’s at the plate in the ninth with two out, runners on the corners. The first pitch comes down the middle and he fouls it off. The runner on first went on the pitch, so has to go back. The Indians hurridly confer on the mound. I make the comment to my friend watching that Baez won’t see another pitch in the zone; the Indians will let the runner go to second on indifference, walk Baez while tempting him to swing, and then take their chances on the next batter (Russell, who’s been abysmal to that point). Baez seems to get the idea; the next pitch is low, and the runner takes second. The 1-1 pitch is high, and Baez doesn’t swing. But then, at 2-1, he somehow seems to forget the concept that it’s ok to walk! He swings at a pitch low and away (currently he can’t stop swinging at that pitch!), then swings at a high inside pitch to end the game.
What is the matter with the coaching staff? Did they not tell Baez what any brainless idiot had figured out? Did they not tell him explicitly DO NOT SWING UNLESS IT IS CLEARLY PIPED TO YOU, especially on the 2-1 pitch? Does no one bother to tell “stars” simple baseball strategy any more? Or did he simply listen to it and blow them off? 
I’ve never understood why it’s normal to give half effort in baseball. Sure, you hit an easy to field pitch down the first base line - you’re going to be out 99% of the time. But why aren’t you running full speed so when that 1% happens, someone bobbles the ball or whatever, you’ll beat it? I can maybe see holding back a little in the regular season, although I still find it annoying - but it’s the World Series. Why does it feel like everyone is half assing it?
Also, the guys that stop to look where their ball went for 3-4 seconds before they start running. I don’t mean when it’s probably foul - when they hit something deep in the park that might be a homer, but turns out just to get behind the outfielders. Why did they waste 3-4 seconds starting at it instead of running all out? It seems like you’re wasting the chance at a lot of doubles and triples.
I really don’t understand it. I can’t think of another sport where the players often look like they’re having a leisurely stroll instead of playing hard.
Well, first, thanks for basically restating pretty much the same point i made at the end of my post.
Second, it’s actually BOTH of those things: the issue of effort, and the question of whether he would have made it even with maximum effort.
In assessing the actual, real-world consequences of his slow start, the question of whether he would have made it with a fast start is certainly not irrelevant. If we conclude that he wouldn’t have made it even if he had sprinted as hard as he could out of the box, then we can still fault him for lack of hustle, but not for failing to tie the game.
Good analysis, mhendo. However, I draw a different conclusion because I use the replay showing Soler’s running. I also used a stopwatch, and I took several time measurements. It helps to watch the replay that shows all of Soler’s run. The original telecast of the play does not show that, but a replay does. It is quite revealing.
I define the following phrases that I use in my descriptions:
- ‘original telecast’: the at bat as telecast live on FOX
- ‘Soler replay’: the replay showing Soler’s AB and the camera stays on him the whole time; this replay is shown at true speed, not slow-mo.
I recorded the AB and the replays and uploaded as an unlisted video. Here it is: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fSpu9Fs0ynk
1:43 - total video length
- 0:04 - the 1-0 pitch, before the controversial hit; listen to Smoltz describe Cleveland’s pitching dominance so far - only 2 hits - another reason why, if Soler runs it out, the third base coach needs to send him home
- 0:22 - the 1-1 pitch and the controversial play
- 0:51 - the slow-mo replay showing Chisenhall misplaying the ball; he slips and almost falls as he picks up the ball; Chisenhall slipped and fell in an earlier WS game, he is struggling defensively in this Series
- 1:11 - the ‘Soler replay’, the beginning of the replay focusing on Soler’s running, showing him round the bases to third
- 1:37 - Jason Heyward in at 3rd to run for Soler
Here are the times I measured:
- 12.2 sec: very similar to what mhendo timed, this is the time from Soler’s bat hitting the ball to Chisenhall’s throw hitting cutoff man Kipnis’s glove - and this was seen on the original telecast; we do not see Chisenhall throwing the ball in the original telecast
[/color] - 6.1 sec: shown in the Soler replay, this is the time it takes the lolly-gagging Soler, from the ball hitting the bat to Soler touching 1st; it is important to note that (1), Soler hesitated in leaving the batter’s box, (2) he took his sweet-assed time getting to 1st, (3) he almost STOPS at 1st(!), and (4) Soler finally kicks it into gear just as he passes 1st
- 6 sec: (estimated) shown in the Soler replay, this is the time it takes Soler to run from 1st to 3rd. The time is estimated because Soler is putting on the brakes as he approaches 3rd; I anticipated, based on Soler’s running velocity, how long it’d take him to get to 3rd running at his speed.
- 2.9 sec: (estimated) shown in the Soler replay, this is the time it takes Soler, running fast, to go from 2nd to 3rd. See above for estimated time.
- 3.6 sec: shown in the Soler replay, this is the time it takes Soler, running fast, to run the 90 feet from just past 1st, to make the turn and get to a roughly identical spot past 2nd
Based on these timings, in the 12.2 seconds it takes for the ball to get to Kipnis’s glove, I estimate that Soler would’ve already rounded 3rd and be 20-30 feet past 3rd:
- 5 sec to run hard to 1st
- 6 sec to run from 1st to 3rd
- 1.2 sec to get 20-30 feet past 3rd
12.2 sec, total.
Paging Mr. Barry Bonds. Mr. Bonds. Hello, Barry?
And how are we liking the first inning in game six, Dopers?? This is going to be nuts.
The outfield misplay was crazy!
Let’s hope that the Cubs can take advantage of this.
We all know that I’m a die-hard Cubs fan. I have no problem with Cleveland normally. I wish them well any other year.
But if Cleveland is going to win, I’d rather it be a very close nail-biter of a Game 7.