MLB Baseball Mid-Season Discussion #1: AL East

Cafe Society
1

Because I just love talking about baseball, let’s discuss the goings on in the major leagues.

The season is about 1/3 over; the average team has now played about 54 games. So let’s have a look, shall we? I’ll start with a division, and if you want to discuss it great, or if you want to start another division that’s great too, otherwise I’ll start a new division every couple of days.

Let’s talk the American League East!

Team - Wins - Losses - (Pct)- GBL

BALTIMORE ORIOLES 34-22 (.607) –
BOSTON RED SOX 31-25 (.554) 3
TORONTO BLUE JAYS 29-28 (.509) 5.5
NEW YORK YANKEES 28-28 (.500) 6
TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS 20-37 (.351) 14.5

The much-expected Yankees-Red Sox race has taken a turn for the unexpected, as the Orioles lead the division and the Yankees are struggling to stay over the break even mark.

Baltimore has the third best offense in the league, owing primarily to the team’s power, led by the middle infield. One wonders how long Brian Roberts will keep up the Rogers Hornsby impression, but nobody else on the team is wildly out of line with their usual performance. The real surprise is the pitching and defense, sixth best in the league. Erik Bedard has been great and the rest of the starters competent; the bullpen also has had some big performances.

Baltimore’s 304 runs scored and 247 runs allowed would normally result in a record of 34-22, so they have not been particularly lucky or unlucky in that respect.

Boston has been this way that way. The offense has been fine, highest OBP in baseball, led by the usual suspects. And that’s with Manny not hitting as well as usual. The pitching and defense, however, has been mediocre. Matt Clement has been great but by himself he can’t make up for the losses of Pedro and Curt, and the key bullpen arms have been extremely hittable. Boston needs to find more pitching to be an elite team, and David Wells is not the guy. Look for a big trade midseason.

Boston’s 306 runs scored and 279 runs allowed would normally result in a record of about 31-25, so they have not been particularly lucky or unlucky in that respect.

Toronto has been up and down; they started the season gangbusters, slumped to below .500, caught fire, and now they’re bad again. Still, Toronto fans are thrilled the team is playing competitive ball despite losing their best hitter in the offseason. The offense has been shockingly competent, 5th in the league despite subpar work from Vernon Wells. The pitching and defense sits dead centre in the league, but a lot of that is the amazing Roy Halladay, who at this point is easily the best human pitcher in the American League. (Kenny Rogers is obviously one of the undead.)

Toronto’s 270 runs scored and 250 runs allowed would normally result in a record of 31-26, so the team has been a bit unlucky in that regard.

New York - boy, and you thought Toronto was streaky. The Yankees at one point looked like the worst team in baseball, slumping to 11-19, and then they went something like 15-2, and now they can’t win again. The team has been so bizarre that it’s hard to tell how good or bad they really are at this point, but one thing is for sure; the pitching is not good and the fielding’s really bad. The Yankees are third worst in the league in runs allowed. There are some competent starters here, but nobody has been an ace a la Halladay, Clement or Bedard, and some of the reserves have been awful. The pitching could get better but the fielding is plainly terrible. The offense has been pretty good though, and would be much better if they’d get Tony Womack out of the damned lineup.

New York’s 291 runs scored and 291 runs allowed would of course suggest a .500 record, which is exactly where they are.

Tampa Bay is simply lost at sea; bad players, bad stadium, bad management, and what fans they might once have had have been driven away. The hitting actually has been pretty good, though, ranked sixth in the league. The D-Rays really lack power - only 44 homers so far - but are blessed with a few guys who can get on base. And that’s with Aubrey Huff not playing very well; it’s been a team effort. The pitching and D, however, has been just Godawful; they’re on track to allow about a thousand runs. The pitching is extremely wild; they’ve walked more batters than anyone in the league, and once they get on the generous Rays pitchers have given up the most homers in the league. The defense is bad too. The Rays just suck.

Tampa Bay’s 265 runs scored and 334 runs allowed would normally result in a reord of 22-35, so they’re not quite as atrocious as the record suggests.

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Very well summarized. I would like to add that this is the division where most of the All-star caliber performances are coming from, offensively. All these Eastern Division players are serious candidates for the all-star game this year thus far:

Gary Sheffield, Johnny Damon, Carl Crawford, Miguel Tejada, A-Rod, Brian Roberts, David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, Melvin Mora and Manny Ramirez.

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As a lifelong Yankee fan, I still find it amazing that Steinbrenner still doesn’t get it. The game hinges on PITCHING, PITCHING, PITCHING!!! We were so hopped up on getting Randy Johnson (a great pitcher, granted, but admittedly in the twilight of his career) just so we could have a big name, and meanwhile the prize of the free agent pitching market, Derek Lowe, ended up on the West Coast. You can have all the bats in the world, but, criminy, you can’t score 10 runs every game! Did we learn NOTHING from last year’s ALCS collapse?I don’t think Baltimore will win the East, though. The Sawx are still the frontrunners, IMHO; however, I’d watch out for Toronto to make a run after the All Star break. Meanwhile, as far as NY goes, I’m gonna start watching the Mets. At least they’re exciting (even if their bullpen is from Hell).

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Yeah, except last year the Big Unit was pitching fantastically. This year he gives up run after run. Did he suddenly just get old over the winter?

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Rufus Xavier covered the things I wanted to say - very nice analysis, RickJay and it appears very likely that at least seven and possibly all ten of the all star starters for the AL will come from this division: Ramirez, Damon, Sheffield in the outfield, A-Rod at third, Tejada at short, Roberts at second, Tino at first (the biggest reach, but he was near the vote lead at the last update, based mostly on his HR streak and Yankee Voting Power, and the fact that he’s a good guy), Varitek at catcher, Ortiz at DH, and Halladay as the SP.

I think any of the non-TB teams in the AL East could probably win this year’s AL West. This division is stacked, and the unbalanced schedule could open the way for the Twins or White Sox to steal the Wild Card from the division that’s had it held down for years.

I think the Orioles are for real. While I’m a Sox fan by upbringing, I live in Baltimore and I see a lot of O’s games (thanks, $5 student tickets to all Friday home games!). All of the starters but Ponson have been consistently average or above-average, and that’s all they need with that offense. Ponson is the bewildering one, alternating between 8IP, 0ER starts and 2.1 IP 7 ER starts, but all of the others have read up on the definition of “quality start”. The bullpen is extremely solid where it counts, with Julio and Ryan taking two innings off the end of every game. My biggest worry would be that “every game” part - Ryan in particular has been absolutely racking up appearances, and also did so each of the past two years. The O’s could use an ace or an ace reliever, but they probably don’t NEED one as badly as a lot of these other teams.

The Sox need Manny to hit, which he will, they need Foulke to settle down, which he will, and they need Curt to come back and be an ace… which is the big question mark. When everyone is healthy, they have six starters who are all above average. When Jeremi Gonzalez, John Halama, and others are making spot starts, they have issues. Even more importantly, they need Schilling for game one in a playoff series; Clement is a great game two option and I wouldn’t mind seeing any of the other four pitch game three, but if you move everyone up a slot, it just doesn’t work. I think the Sox will be fine though - they get more interesting next year when the youth movement starts.

I want to say something intelligent and knowledgable about the Blue Jays… but honestly I can’t. They bewilder me. They have a roster of kids and castoffs, but it’s getting the job done. Other than Halladay, their rotation is the same thing - again, getting the job done. Miguel Batista is somehow lights out. I don’t see enough that really stands out as GREAT about this team that I think they could be a serious playoff team without an addition or two, but they definitely have the pieces in place that can keep them competitive into the future. Will they be able to lure a free agent pitcher in the offseason? Will they be willing to spend the money to solidify whatever holes Ricciardi decides they have at the end of the year? One can hope.

Ahh, the Yankees. That roster, and Tony Womack is getting regular playing time… amazing. The scary thing is that, as much as you can argue that the pitching should get better, there isn’t necessarily evidence to that end. Pavano has been very average over the course of his career except for last year, when he was in a very good situation in Florida. Ditto how Wright has looked over the last eight years or so when he hasn’t been pitching for Leo and Bobby. Johnson has been so good for so long, and has been ignoring his age for so long, but he IS actually that age and he HAS actually been pitching for that long. Mussina has been less consistent than you’d like, and that’s been a trend over the past year or two (he also hasn’t been striking out batters at the rate that he did in his glory days). Kevin Brown is not only 40 years old, but also Kevin Brown. Honestly, I think the biggest positive in that rotation is how Wang’s consistency rubs off on the rest of the staff. They will hit though, so the pitching will have as long as possible to right itself; it just better not take TOO long, since there are multiple other threats in both the division and for the WC that haven’t been there recently.

I feel bad for Lou Piniella. That is all.

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Kiros:

Do you really?

I don’t. The man had a contract with the Mariners, and then, when it looked like he might have a shot at a job with the Mets (bigger media exposure, more winning potential), he started yapping about how much he missed his “home.” His true home is in Tampa, but he was clearly hoping that this “homesickness” would be loosely enough understood as being the entire East Coast, so the M’s would release him from his contract and let him sign on with baseball’s other M’s. Instead, the Mariners made him eat his words by negotiating him out to the woeful Devil Rays.

What the heck ever happened with sticking with contractual commitments, even if you’re not having fun anymore?

Piniella got exactly what he deserved.

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This season reminds me of 1964- that is, I think the Yankees are on the verge of a collapse that will last several years. But I ALSO think the Yankees are good enough to win it all this year, in spite of all their obvious weaknesses.

In the long run, they’re in big trouble. They have way too much invested (not just financially) in guys whose best years are behind them, and the difficulty they had in getting Randy Johnson last season shows how little they have of value in their minor leagues.

I think the Yanks have enough talent to put together a pennant run this year, and I think they’ll do it. After that, if Joe Torre is smart, he’ll retire. Because the next Yankee manager, whoever he is, will be Johnny Keane II.

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I could not be happier seeing the Yankees struggle so much, especially when it costs Steinbrenner an arm and a leg for that great team of his. :smiley: :smack:

On the other hand, my team (the Disastros) could not really be doing any worse right now…so I’ll be content in watching George’s team languish behind 3 other teams that all cost less than his and haven’t earned the scorn of pretty much every person in America who isn’t from New York, as well as some who are, I imagine. I just hope the Orioles can keep this up. Now if Toronto were to move up from 3rd place, thereby eliminating the Red Sox…well, that would just be God’s greatest miracle this year. ;j

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Your fingers to God’s ears.
MAN, I hate those guys.

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While i understand that some people might feel that Baltimore don’t have what it takes to lead the division post to post, i think it’s important to remember RickJay’s observation that, apart from Brian Roberts, none of the hitters on the team is really doing anything unexpected.

Miguel Tejada led the majors in RBIs last year, and is near the top of the list again. He’s one of the best players around, and i thought he deserved to be the starting shortstop in the All-Star game last year. Melvin Mora had a pretty poor April, but is now back to the sort of form that he showed for most of last season. Rafael Palmeiro, B.J. Surhoff, and JayGibbons have all also been hitting well of late, despite relatively slow starts. And now that he’s getting to play on a regular basis, David Newhan’s swing is looking more like it did last last year, when he hit over .400 for the first month after being called up. And, as long as his current injury troubles are over quickly, i see no reason for Roberts to fall in a hole. There seems to be nothing lucky about his hitting, and his swing looks consistently smooth and controlled. I just hope Sammy Sosa picks up a bit.

One thing about watching the Orioles this year is that when they’re down they always seem likely to mount a comeback. In fact, of their 35 wins so far this year, 18 have been come-from-behind efforts. I think that the Orioles’ hitting performance actually has a salutary affect on the pitching staff, because the starters know that they don’t need to pitch a three-hit shutout in order to have a chance at a win.

I’m also quite pleased at the interleague roster for the next few weeks. Baltimore comes up against Pittsburgh, Cincinatti, Houston, and Colorado. Not one of these teams is above .500, and they have a combined record of 87-136. If the Orioles play well, they might be able to increase their lead in the division. Especially given that both Boston and the Yankees have to face St. Louis and the Cubs over the same period.

Finally, on a “personal milestone” note, on July 4 this year i will make my first trip to watch baseball in the Bronx. I’m spending 10 days in New York, and have bought tickets to watch Baltimore play at Yankee Stadium on Independence Day. How American is that ?

Let’s Go O’s!

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Lifelong Jays fan here, or at least from 10 years old when my Dad to exhibition stadium around '80 or '81. I’m from near Buffalo, I follow the standings in the local paper but would like to hear more news from Toronto.

Who owns the team and are they going to spend any money or make any big trades?

My brother is a long time O’s fan and is living large rubbing it in to all the damn Yankee fans he’s surrounded by. His opinion closely watching the team is they will fade.

Any way it shakes out, this is going to be fun to watch.

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I do. In a way, he did get exactly what he deserved, as you said. I still wouldn’t wish the misery that is Tampa Bay Baseball on anyone, never mind anyone who has shown in the past that he can be such a successful manager. It’s even worse because at times they have shown promise, and they still do, long-term - their farm system is still relatively stacked even with some of the things that went wrong, they still have some good players, etc. Unfortunately, with that stadium, that ownership, that division, and that fan base, I don’t see the promise being realized any time in the next decade (the division might even be the worst of it - if they were in most of the other divisions, they could at least take part of this small market renassaince of hope that seems to be happening for the first couple of months every year. In the AL East they don’t even have that).

Mostly, I don’t think what Lou did was bad enough to justify putting such a good manager through a situation where there is pretty much no hope, even when he gets the benefit of living in his hometown. To his credit, he’s sat through it a few years now - we’ll see if he lasts out his contract here.

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Yep, a third of the way through and only the Rays are out of it. But the shakeout is about to happen:

Boston is finally going to get to play some home games (note that they’re just, what, 2 out even as it is). Renteria is finally hitting, and all it took was getting his favorite uniform number back. Millar’s power is back, now that he has some competition. The rest of the lineup produces about as stably as ever. Pitching? Foulke finally had a 1-2-3 save Sunday, so maybe whatever his problem was (apparently mental) is gone. Setup is problematic - Embree may be worn out, Timlin is old, Mantei isn’t fully back yet. The rotation is a bit shaky, Wells and Wakefield look to be about done and nobody knows about Schilling, but now that we finally have warm weather that may clear up.

Baltimore’s holes in both the lineup and the staff have to be about to show. They should finish above .500, a major accomplishment, but they just don’t have the horses.

The Yankees suddenly got old during the playoffs, and they depend on another old pitcher who may be as done as Wells and Wakefield. As long as George can’t swallow his pride and put Williams and Giambi out to pasture, they’ll have too many holes, too.

Toronto should finish ahead of Tampa Bay, but mainly because Rocco Baldelli is hurt and Vernon Wells isn’t. Noncontenders, sorry.

14

Great post RickJay,

I’d have to say, as much as I’d love to see Baltimore keep it up in the East, I just don’t see it happening, long-term. They could be a great all-star break story, but I think that their pitching is far to suspect. They are over-achieving, imo.

Yes, I do think that the Yankees will still win this division (ack).

It’s nice to see that the wild-card might not come out of this division. Maybe not out of the West, either, which is pretty incredible, really.

Perhaps JP Riccardi does know what he’s doing up there in Toronto. As already mentioned, his cast-offs are performing well, which, if anyone read Moneyball, would not be surprised by. I hope the Jays can keep it up.

Maybe Lou P will dye his hair again to encourage a winning streak!

I look forward to reading the analysis of your other divisions RickJay!

:smiley:

15

I can understand if people are skeptical about Baltimore’s pitching. It’s been pretty inconsistent for the past few seasons, and even this year there have been some ups and downs.

But i don’t quite understand the apparently-prevalent notion that the lineup has a whole bunch of “holes” that are about to open up and swallow the team’s success. As RickJay pointed out in his OP, the only real surprise among the hitters this year is Bryan Roberts, who is hitting 95 points better than he did in 2004. Most of the other players are hitting very close to what they hit for the whole season last year.

Remember that, even while the Orioles were losing game after game in 2004, they still finished the season third in the majors in hitting with a team percentage of .281 (only one point behind the Red Sox and the Angels, on .282). And even before the arrival of players like Javy Lopez, Rafael Palmeiro, and Miguel Tejada, they were ninth in hitting in 2003. They are, and have been, a good hitting ballclub.

The main thing that has changed for Baltimore’s hitters this year is the home runs and, as a consequence, the slugging percentage. Whereas they were 19th in homers and 15th in slugging last year, they are second and first in those categories respectively this year. We’re about a third of the way through the season, and they already have almost half as many homers as they had all last season.

In fact, the main “holes” i see in their line-up right now are the ones caused by injury. Brian Roberts has missed the last six games, and is currently expected back any day. Javy Lopez broke his hand, is on the 15-day DL, and might be out for some time. Luis Matos hasn’t played a game since May 10 and won’t be back for at least a couple more weeks. And Sosa spent 15 days on the DL and hasn’t really got his swing back since returning.

I probably sound too defensive here. I’m well aware that baseball is a fickle sport, and that anything could happen. It’s entirely possible that the Birds will indeed fall in a heap. But, by the same token, i think that sometimes people tend to estimate a team’s likely future based on previous seasons’ expectations rather than on the evidence, and i think that’s happening with Baltimore a bit this season.

RickJay: in your OP, you gave figures for where each team could expect to be, based on the runs scored (for and against). How do you work out these figures?

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(Disclaimer: As a lifelong NL watcher, I don’t know a whole lot about this division other than what I’ve seen and heard through living with a Sox fan.)

Baltimore - If Brian Roberts can come back from the strained rotator cuff and keep the stroke he had before the injury, this team is gonna be really stout. Tejada is possibly the best shortstop in baseball right now. I think Sosa’s really on the downside of his career, but he’ll still hit 30 homers and play passable defense (although they’d do well to get a young RF and let Sammy DH.)

Boston - The Sox have some trouble spots. Foulke is shaky (I think it’s mechanics rather than mental), the bullpen is graying and not particularly sharp, except for Myers, and the rotation has some holes. Wells has been inconsistent, Wakefield needs Doug Mirabelli back behind the plate and they have to get Schilling back. If Mirabelli gets healthy, Wake can win 15 games this year. Johnny Damon needs to stay healthy, too, because they’ve got to have him leading off.

Toronto - Losing Corey Koskie hurt them (and my fantasy team.) Hinske’s shown some power, but at the end of the year this team will be playing golf instead of going to the playoffs.

New York - Old, old, old. Randy Johnson is past his sell-by date and Bernie Williams needs to work on his music career. The bullpen is just as bad as the rotation, they overpaid for Carl Pavano, and Kevin Brown isn’t gonna stay healthy long enough to melt down. Giambi is dead weight, A-Rod is statistically the second-worst third baseman defensively in the AL and Jeter is still playing every position but shortstop. They need to make a bunch of moves before the deadline, but no one wants to take the contracts they handed out like M&Ms.

Tampa Bay - The Devil Dogs have one hell of a AAA team. Unfortunately, it’s playing a major league schedule. Aubrey Huff will be gone by the deadline, Dewon Brazelton threw a hissy fit after being sent down, Rocco Baldelli might be back by the All-Star Break if he’s lucky and I wouldn’t be surprised if Carl Crawford gets traded for more prospects that will be wasted.

17

Seems like we O’s fans are thinking alike: whooping it up while we can.

This is one of those peculiar years. Usually the important factor for a winning team is pitching. But this year, in several places around the league, it is hitting that is taking the day.

And it never hurts if the big pocketbook teams are out of it!

18

Famous analyst Bill James came up with a formula that usually predicts a teams winning percentage very accurately using the team’s runs scored and runs allowed:

Runs scored squared divided by (Runs scored squared + Runs allowed squared) = expected winning percentage

I believe that is what RickJay is using.

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Rogers Communications, a large Canadian cable company, owns the team(and now the Skydome/Rogers Centre). Supposedly the budget is going to be increasing over the next several years, starting this year.

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Thanks. I did a couple of calculations, and if RickJay isn’t using that method, then he’s using one very similar, because i got the same results as him.