I absolutely agree that Harper (or Machado, buit it looks like it will be Harper) signing will be the break in the dam.
I don’t think there is deliberate collusion going on, but collusion can happen without deliberate, spoken agreements. (In fact, many elements of antitrust law don’t even require the economic actors ever agreed to collude; they just require that the actors acted as if they were colluding.) If it feels like everyone’s holding off, everyone will hold off, hoping for discounts. Once one big name goes, though, the sense of urgency will return. It’s a prisoner’s dilemma of sorts.
Machado to the White Sox would be interesting, because the White Sox are a horrible team. They lost a hundred games last year, and while they’re a young team, none of their young players really make you go “Hoo boy, the future looks great!” So basically they’d be paying Machado a huge pile of money to be very bad, instead of extremely bad. (I realize they’re super unlikely to lose 100 games again even without Machado, but, still.) So if Chicago were to sign Machado, that’s REALLY long term thinking. You’re signing him to win in 2022. It’s an intriguing idea, and if the Sox are willing to pay the guy eighty or ninety million dollars just to have him for when they do get good, well, you have to give credit to a team that has a plan.
We absolutely would be having the same discussion just with higher numbers.
What does can’t afford mean? Philly going to go bankrupt? Make slightly less profit?
I think you are underestimating how interconnected all of this is. Lets say, without a luxury tax, the equation is changed enough that the Yankees decide to go after Machado and the Dodgers Harper. Now the Phillies, instead of waiting for one to fall in their laps, have to get into a bidding war to sign either. Maybe they fail and have to go hard after Keuchel and Kimbrel to get anything. Except now the Red Sox, without the tax and now more concerned about the Yankees, bid aggressively to keep Kimbrel. MAybe the cubs get in there too driving up not just the cost of Kimbrel but the entire reliever market. Perhaps then a team like the Mets who spent big on the bullpen decide to go after Keuchel instead due to the higher prices. Now Nola and Severino are less concerned about the free agent market and don’t sign team friendly extensions. Everyone in arbitration does better too as they can make comparisons with players with higher salaries.
I don’t know what the players will request. There are two main options. One is to guarantee a percentage of the revenue to the players, so you guarantee it works out in the end. The other is to make changes to try to tweak the balance (raise the luxury tax, lesson years of service, incentivize winning etc…) to hope to get back to historic norms. It depends a lot on what type of player the union wants to help, which I imagine will be a big internal battle. Also what the players should ask for vs what they will is another question as they did agree to the current deal when these current problems were very much foreseeable.
Mostly the latter. They would exceed the luxury-tax threshold and have to pay a competitive-balance “tax”, and almost all teams are staying clear of that in their budgets.
I don’t understand the Padres. They tried to build a big hitting outfield a couple of years ago and put their team in the dumpster even deeper. How can they think the Machado is the one missing piece they need to be competitive in the NL West.
They don’t need to contend in 2019 or even in 2020 for this to be a good deal. Machado is very young and he’s now under contract for a decade. The Padres have solid talent in their upper farm system. Grabbing a guy like this now, to be the reliable superstar veteran once the kids are all ready rather than having to trade some of those kids to secure a superstar, is actually a pretty great, forward-looking move.
Here is my prediction. He will hit around 40 home runs, strike out about 110 times, play so-so defense and the Padres will finish 4th or 5th in the division.
They will look to deal him in 2 or 3 years but will find it difficult due the massive contract.
Nope, not buying it. First, Machado isn’t going to be that reliable veteran that teaches the kids how to work unless he undergoes a dramatic personality shift. Second, once the Padres finish in the basement the next three or four years they are going to need a new talent splash to keep butts in the seats and they won’t be able to trade this contract or bring in a new superstar. Lastly, even if the Padres developed an amazing team from their farm system they wouldn’t have needed Machado and could look at the free agent market then to compliment their new stars that worked out not just hoping that third base/ short is where they will need help if everyone pans out.
Well, it’s not like the whole thing is purely theoretical. The Padres really do have excellent young talent; they have 3 of the best 30 prospects in baseball right now. That includes Luis Urias, who is already in the majors. More importantly, it includes Fernando Tatis Jr., who depending on who you ask is either the second- or third-best prospect in the sport, and at only 19 is probably MLB ready right now. Obviously, one or both could fail to launch. But if they do launch, and in 2021 they are an All-Star combination at 2B and SS, what would you rather: look for a free agent superstar at 3B who is willing to play for your team, or already have one on the roster who is still in his prime as a hitter? At that point Chris Paddack and Mackenzie Gore show up in the rotation, and you go shopping for a few complementary pieces, and you have a contender.
Man. On the night I threw out my first pitch, he was the person who threw out a pitch after me (he got quite a bit more applause than I did, for some reason). They were handing out replica Newcombe jerseys that night, too, so I’ve got mine.
He was often at the stadium and always smiling. He will definitely be missed.
So lose the luxury tax so that the teams who spend the most will spend even more? And hope for a trickle down effect? I don’t know. Creating a reasonable salary floor makes sense to me, but it probably wouldn’t have mitigated the free agent logjam of this winter.
The Padres have a lot of good young guys in the minors but they had basically no really good players on the big league roster at all. They’re loading up for 2021, I guess.
I’m not sure how much credence I give the “Manny has a terrible attitude” thing. I don’t know him, no one else in this thread knows him, and I’d assume the Padres maybe asked around a little about him. He seem to work at his craft and he can sure play.
Yeah, as Hawkeyeop said, we’d just be talking a higher figure.
If Machado and Harper are worth $300 million (a prescient number on my part, huh? :)), I assume you’d argue that Trout and Betts are worth more…maybe $350, maybe $375, maybe $400. And maybe some teams would think they were worth that kind of money. -
-But I don’t think anyone would have signed them for $350 or $375 or $400, till now. Same reasoning–the reverse auction idea. Let’s wait till the price goes down.
So, yeah, I agree that Trout or Betts might have been signed for $300 million–but that would not have been their true value.
Interesting you mention Pedroia, who signed an 8 year deal a few years ago and at best is likely to be a part-time player this year after several seasons with injuries.
Machado has already had surgeries on both knees and will be about as old as Pedroia will when their contracts expire.
At least the Red Sox only paid about a third of what the Padres have committed with Machado.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see San Diego shopping Machado in a few years and even having to throw some serious money into the deal.
Well, maybe they’ll get a championship or two before then. :dubious:
Sure lets talk about Pedroia, because I don’t think he shows what you think he shows. Machado is 26. Pedroia was 30 when he signed his contract. So in a few years when you think the Padres will want to move on, he will just reaching the age when Pedroira’s contract started. When Machado is Pedroia’s current age he will be entering the last year of his contract.
Those 4 prime years are a huge difference. To illistrate lets take another look at Pedroia. Per BR, Pedroia was worth 22.6 WAR from 26-29. Since he signed his contract he has earned 13.9 WAR. His contract would look way better if it started earlier and ended this year. I think if the Red Sox paid $300 million over 10 years to get 36.5, they would have been perfectly fine with it. Given how much higher revenue is now, I think the Padres would be quite satisfied.
And of course there is plenty of upside. In ten years Machado is still younger than Cano who has not shown any signs of decline. Machado could put up a couple of mvp type seasons in the short term and age gracefully. There is a risk in ten year contracts, but I don’t see this as particularly risky. He hits a team need, he will provide some highlights in down years, and still be fairly young when the Padres are ready to contend, which may be sooner then you think.