MLB Hot Stove / Offseason 2018-2019

[Ulf_the_Unwashed]

@Hawkeyeop

Sure lets talk about Pedroia, because I don’t think he shows what you think he shows. Machado is 26. Pedroia was 30 when he signed his contract. So in a few years when you think the Padres will want to move on, he will just reaching the age when Pedroira’s contract started. When Machado is Pedroia’s current age he will be entering the last year of his contract.

Those 4 prime years are a huge difference. To illistrate lets take another look at Pedroia. Per BR, Pedroia was worth 22.6 WAR from 26-29. Since he signed his contract he has earned 13.9 WAR. His contract would look way better if it started earlier and ended this year. I think if the Red Sox paid $300 million over 10 years to get 36.5, they would have been perfectly fine with it. Given how much higher revenue is now, I think the Padres would be quite satisfied.

And of course there is plenty of upside. In ten years Machado is still younger than Cano who has not shown any signs of decline. Machado could put up a couple of mvp type seasons in the short term and age gracefully. There is a risk in ten year contracts, but I don’t see this as particularly risky. He hits a team need, he will provide some highlights in down years, and still be fairly young when the Padres are ready to contend, which may be sooner then you think.

I agree with all of this.

I’ve been intrigued this off-season by what feels like an enormous amount of negativity toward Machado and Harper. Issues in the clubhouse, issues with hustle, issues with pigheadedness, issues with defense.

I know Harper had a pretty bad season defensively and only hit .249, but he still hit 34 homers and walked 130 times; I know Machado maybe shouldn’t be playing short and doesn’t hit quite like Mike trout, but the guy’s been averaging about 6 WAR a year for the last four. And they’re both still quite young. We’re not exactly talking <name your favorite lousy hitter> here.

I don’t know where the pessimism comes from (in my more conspiratorial moments I think it comes from team owners trying to tamp prices down), but it’s weird. Of course you take a risk when you sign someone to a ten year contract. Of course you run a risk when you sign a player who’s had surgeries and who doesn’t always hustle… I’d never say these guys are locks. But where the idea comes from that they’re dogs, I don’t know.

–I’ll tell you who the whole Machado thing reminds me of, and that’s Adrian beltre. It’s easy to forget, but a LOT of people were down on Beltre when he left Los Angeles for Seattle after 2004 (right after his age 25 season, we might note). After some decent years (but not nearly the equal of Machado thus far), Beltre finally put it all together in his last year in LA, with a WAR of over 9. Seattle signed him to a big contract, and many commentators were quite critical of the Mariners. There were questions about hustle, there were questions about Beltre turning it on for his walk year… and when he regressed to a WAR of 3.2 in his first year with Seattle the questions intensified.

Well, times have changed, and we know how that turned out. Beltre is now clearly a Grand Old Man of baseball, as he should be. And I’m certainly not saying that Machado is going to do what Beltre did–if nothing else, Beltre was really great in his mid-thirties in a way few other players have been. But in terms of age right now, in terms of position, in terms of career to date, in terms of some of the criticisms–Beltre seems like a pretty decent comp for Machado. From 2005 to 2014, ages 26-35, Beltre had 54 WAR, or just about exactly what it took David Ortiz 20 years to compile. --If Machado can come anywhere near this, his contract will be a huge success.

[ElvisL1ves]

All that’s true, and still doesn’t account for the continuation of steady increases in MLB revenue. $300M seems inconceivable today, the way $30M seemed inconceivable just a decade or two ago, but how will it look in 10 years? It may be a bargain.

[Barkis_is_Willin]

Look at a guy like Adam Jones, still unsigned, no idea what he’s going to get. But he’s probably going to put up about a 2 WAR season. You have to wonder, can I get that from a much younger guy at a much lower cost who might even have a much higher upside? Andrew McCutcheon, a guy with about the same performance expectations as Jones, looks pretty smart to jump at the Phillies offer he got a couple months ago.

[Dale_Sams]

@Ulf_the_Unwashed

I agree with all of this.

I’ve been intrigued this off-season by what feels like an enormous amount of negativity toward Machado and Harper. Issues in the clubhouse, issues with hustle, issues with pigheadedness, issues with defense.

I know Harper had a pretty bad season defensively and only hit .249, but he still hit 34 homers and walked 130 times; I know Machado maybe shouldn’t be playing short and doesn’t hit quite like Mike trout, but the guy’s been averaging about 6 WAR a year for the last four. And they’re both still quite young. We’re not exactly talking <name your favorite lousy hitter> here.

I don’t know where the pessimism comes from (in my more conspiratorial moments I think it comes from team owners trying to tamp prices down), but it’s weird. Of course you take a risk when you sign someone to a ten year contract. Of course you run a risk when you sign a player who’s had surgeries and who doesn’t always hustle… I’d never say these guys are locks. But where the idea comes from that they’re dogs, I don’t know.

–I’ll tell you who the whole Machado thing reminds me of, and that’s Adrian beltre. It’s easy to forget, but a LOT of people were down on Beltre when he left Los Angeles for Seattle after 2004 (right after his age 25 season, we might note). After some decent years (but not nearly the equal of Machado thus far), Beltre finally put it all together in his last year in LA, with a WAR of over 9. Seattle signed him to a big contract, and many commentators were quite critical of the Mariners. There were questions about hustle, there were questions about Beltre turning it on for his walk year… and when he regressed to a WAR of 3.2 in his first year with Seattle the questions intensified.

Well, times have changed, and we know how that turned out. Beltre is now clearly a Grand Old Man of baseball, as he should be. And I’m certainly not saying that Machado is going to do what Beltre did–if nothing else, Beltre was really great in his mid-thirties in a way few other players have been. But in terms of age right now, in terms of position, in terms of career to date, in terms of some of the criticisms–Beltre seems like a pretty decent comp for Machado. From 2005 to 2014, ages 26-35, Beltre had 54 WAR, or just about exactly what it took David Ortiz 20 years to compile. --If Machado can come anywhere near this, his contract will be a huge success.

WHOA slow down Tex! You dont fire a broadside at Ortiz and get away with it. Now do an avg of WAR per year for top ten players.

Im gonna guess its

DH: 1. Ortiz

3B: 1. Beltre (despite Beltres injuries)

So…nvm.

Edit: I never forgave the Sox letting Beltre walk. I dont care where you play Beltre to keep him.

[BobLibDem]

The Padres may be just as thrilled about having Machado around for years 6-10 as the Yankees were in the final years with A-Rod.

I’m glad the Yankees didn’t get him. He’s the kind of guy that’s much more fun to root against than for.

Judge says he’d move to center to get Harper. I say screw that. Yankees have a glut of outfielders and relievers. The number one thing to get is a starting pitcher. Or two.

[BlankSlate]

Woah, woah, woah. A glut? The Yankees biggest strength is their bullpen, but they don’t have too many relievers. As for outfielders, I don’t want Harper either and Judge wouldn’t be moved to center (not with Aaron Hicks on the roster) but rather to left. The Yanks aren’t really that deep in the outfield; last season Shane Robinson had to be promoted for 25 games and it wasn’t pretty. Hopefully Clint Frazier will be healthy this year and good enough to send Brett Gardner to the bench.

[Ulf_the_Unwashed]

@Dale_Sams

WHOA slow down Tex! You dont fire a broadside at Ortiz and get away with it. Now do an avg of WAR per year for top ten players.

Im gonna guess its

DH: 1. Ortiz

3B: 1. Beltre (despite Beltres injuries)

So…nvm.

Edit: I never forgave the Sox letting Beltre walk. I dont care where you play Beltre to keep him.

I must admit I’m not quite sure what you’re driving at here

I used Ortiz as a comp because

a) he and Beltre were briefly teammates

b) the WAR figures were almost identical (Beltre about 54 in 10 years, Ortiz 55 career)

c) Ortiz took much longer to do it than the other recent/current players in that “balllpark.”

For instance, Jeff Kent has about the same WAR but in 17 seasons. Joe Mauer, same deal, 15 seasons. Ian Kinsler’s a couple points better with just 13 seasons. Joey Votto’s a little better even than that in 12.

It makes Beltre’s 10 years seem that much better when stacked up, not next to Votto’s 12, but to Ortiz’s 20. That’s all!

[And yes, I know Ortiz’s seasons weren’t all full seasons. Still, there were 20 of them… Just sounds better this way.]

[What_Exit]

@BobLibDem

…

Judge says he’d move to center to get Harper. I say screw that. Yankees have a glut of outfielders and relievers. The number one thing to get is a starting pitcher. Or two.

Yanks only have a glut of Outfielders if you consider Ellsbury one. But I agree, we don’t need Harper. He doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Yanks.

As to relievers, no way do we have a glut, we have a strength of relievers.

[RickJay]

@BobLibDem

The Padres may be just as thrilled about having Machado around for years 6-10 as the Yankees were in the final years with A-Rod.

I’m glad the Yankees didn’t get him. He’s the kind of guy that’s much more fun to root against than for.

Judge says he’d move to center to get Harper. I say screw that. Yankees have a glut of outfielders and relievers. The number one thing to get is a starting pitcher. Or two.

Who knows, maybe the Yankees would have a trade up their sleeve to accommodate such a move.

[ElvisL1ves]

As we all know, there is no such thing as enough pitching.

[Typo_Negative]

@RickJay

I mean, if you read his entire quote, that isn’t what he said. Makes a better headline that way, though, I suppose.

What about that do you think is inaccurate?

Machado has been criticized this postseason as he has stepped into the playoff spotlight — and revealed to the baseball world he takes plays off. In Saturday’s Game 2 of the NLCS, the Dodgers star half-heartedly jogged to first after he hit a ball into the shortstop hole, and what could have been at the least a close play ended up an easy out.

Obviously I’m not going to change, I’m not the type of player that’s going to be ‘Johnny Hustle,’ and run down the line and slide to first base and … you know, whatever can happen. That’s just not my personality, that’s not my cup of tea, that’s not who I am.”

On the field, he is an admitted loafer. In the video room, he transforms into the critic staring at a player giving less than 100 percent.

Seems like that is exactly what he said.

[Hawkeyeop]

@BobLibDem

The Padres may be just as thrilled about having Machado around for years 6-10 as the Yankees were in the final years with A-Rod

Well if Machado opts out in five years and the padres give another 10 year contract that will probably happen. Of course if you want to compare Machado to Arod’s first big deal in Texas signed at a similar age, that would be a great outcome for SD.

[Hawkeyeop]

@Typo_Negative

What about that do you think is inaccurate?

Seems like that is exactly what he said.

You might want to try reading the rest of the article for context. Machado talks about he know he isn’t good at this aspect of baseball and that while he will never be great, he needs to get better. Not exactly a discouraging sentiment.

By the way, if I’m paying a player 300 million, I really don’t want him blowing out a hamstring on a routine groundout. He needs to get better at recognizing game situations, but I also don’t think he should try to be Johnny Hustle either.

[BlankSlate]

Check out the new CC Sabathia.

[kenobi_65]

@BlankSlate

Check out the new CC Sabathia.

Whoa. Good for him!

[What_Exit]

@kenobi_65

Whoa. Good for him!

That’s as dramatic as Kevin Smith’s weight change.

[BobLibDem]

My thinking regarding Yankees’ outfield depth:
Hicks and Gardner should be more than enough in center, providing both stay healthy.

If Frazier can stay healthy, he’s the logical choice in left. I still think he’s a diamond in the rough. If not, Stanton can play left.

Judge in right, alternating with Stanton if Frazier can cover left.

I’m perhaps optimistic about Frazier. I still have hopes for Florial. I just don’t see the need to import more outfielders.

Ellsbury I think is done.

In my opinion, what killed the team last year was that for most of the year, Sanchez was an automatic out. Plus Andujar is woefully inadquate at third.

[Ulf_the_Unwashed]

@Dale_Sams

WHOA slow down Tex! You dont fire a broadside at Ortiz and get away with it. Now do an avg of WAR per year for top ten players.

Im gonna guess its

DH: 1. Ortiz

3B: 1. Beltre (despite Beltres injuries)

So…nvm.

Edit: I never forgave the Sox letting Beltre walk. I dont care where you play Beltre to keep him.

Just as an FYI, I did look it up.

Among DHs or those who spent a good chunk of time as DH, three guys clearly outrank Ortiz in the WAR per year department:

Frank Thomas 73.9 WAR, 19 years = 3.9/year
Edgar Martinez 68.4 WAR, 18 years = 3.8/year
Paul Molitor 75.7 WAR, 21 years = 3.6/year
Ortiz 55.3 WAR, 20 years = 2.8/year

Not especially close either.

As for Beltre: 95.7 in 21 years, average 4.6 a year. He trails only Schmidt (who averaged 5.9, whoa) and Mathews and Boggs, and Alex Rodriguez if you want to consider him a 3B; he’s ahead of Brett and Jones, and no one else is really close. Of course there’ve been a zillion third basemen in MLB history, so top five is really, really good.

[Dale_Sams]

@Ulf_the_Unwashed

Just as an FYI, I did look it up.

Among DHs or those who spent a good chunk of time as DH, three guys clearly outrank Ortiz in the WAR per year department:

Frank Thomas 73.9 WAR, 19 years = 3.9/year
Edgar Martinez 68.4 WAR, 18 years = 3.8/year
Paul Molitor 75.7 WAR, 21 years = 3.6/year
Ortiz 55.3 WAR, 20 years = 2.8/year

Not especially close either.

As for Beltre: 95.7 in 21 years, average 4.6 a year. He trails only Schmidt (who averaged 5.9, whoa) and Mathews and Boggs, and Alex Rodriguez if you want to consider him a 3B; he’s ahead of Brett and Jones, and no one else is really close. Of course there’ve been a zillion third basemen in MLB history, so top five is really, really good.

Nice. Thanks for checking that

[BlankSlate]

Here’s yet another problem, affecting both pace-of-play and the overall quality of the game:

The number of foul balls has increased 12% since 1998.

Last year the number of strikeouts surpassed the number of hits for the first time. Two years ago, also for the first time, there were more foul balls than balls put into play. However, the number of foul outs is way down.

In 2003, there were 4,372 foul outs. That number has fallen off dramatically, reaching a record low 3,262 in 2016 and hitting 3,450 last season.

Why?

An increase in foul balls and a decline in foul outs may seem paradoxical, but the reason is simple: Playing surfaces are shrinking. In comparing 21 current stadiums with their immediate predecessor, FanGraphs found that fair territory had decreased by 1.4 percent, but foul territory decreased by 20.5 percent, or about 5,500 square feet on average.

20.5 percent!

Baseball has some interesting issues, but this looks like one without a solution.