Well, I don’t think clutchness is predictive. Ie, I think there is every change next year Judge is more clutch than Altuve. However, for me, the MVP is a measure of what actually happened, so I think it is worth considering in that context.
Sabermetrics has shown that clutch performance is not a repeatable skill. That does not mean it does not have an impact on a player’s value when it happens.
Historically, before this stuff was easy to look up, players were said to be clutch or not clutch based on one World Series, or just some sportswriter’s opinion. It wasn’t based on any sort of reason of evidence. What sabermetricians found is that there’s no skill to it; a player who is clutch one year isn’t unusually likely to be one the next.
But no one ever said coming up in key situations wasn’t a good thing. Sabermetrics has never held that because that makes no sense. Obviously it is better to hit a home run with the bases loaded than with the bases empty.
In 2005, for instance, David Ortiz, having come off a huge 2004 postseason, developed a reputation as an astounding clutch hitter. The thing is, in 2005, he WAS an astounding clutch hitter. Depending who you believe, Ortiz’s clutch performance added 3 to 5 wins to the Red Sox above his already impressive hitting stats. That is a staggering accomplishment. It’s like David Ortiz was normally David Ortiz, and his clutch hitting added Edwin Encarnacion to the team. He was actually as valuable that year as Alex Rodriguez, who won the MVP Award, was.
But Ortiz showed NO consistent ability to be clutch the entire rest of his career. He was as likely to hit worse in clutch situations as he was to hit better. For his career his clutch score as measured by Fangraphs s actually a little negative (for a guy who played 20 years, close enough to even to not really matter.)
Ortiz’s 2005 clutch numbers mattered. They helped the Red Sox win baseball games. His WAR of 5.3 that year is, simply, wrong; it was more like 8 or 9.
Aaron Judge is the opposite example; in 2017 he was just brutal in clutch situations. If it was a high leverage situation, Aaron was a really bad hitter. He not only doesn’t deserve the MVP Award; he really should not be in the top 3. But in all likelihood that is a total fluke, and in 2018 he is no likelier to be unclutch than anyone else.
To use a simple example, George Springer hit 5 home runs in the World Series. that had real value. He helped Houston win the Series. But no one thinks that’s a repeatable skill. No one hits 5 homers every 7 games; he’s not going to hit 116 homers next year. But he did it in the World Series, and it counts.
No, no, no on Jack Morris. I thought the writers had put that to bed. Standard disclaimer: WAR isn’t everything. But the guy who ranks 164th all-time is not Hall of Fame material. It’s true he came up big a few times in the postseason, but even those achievements are tainted by his horrible outings for Toronto.
The only one from that list who deserves consideration is Alan Trammell. And where the hell is Lou Whitaker?
Whitaker was always undervalued, for a variety of reasons. Trammell has some highlights Whitaker did not. My opinions:
Jack Morris – Morris was a good pitcher, obviously, but is not HOF worthy. His career W-L record is inflated by his playing for good offenses and defenses. Morris would not even be close to the worst pitcher in the Hall, and I don’t think he’d even be bottom 10, but that’s not the standard. He did pitch very well in the playoffs overall, despite his terrible postseason with Toronto, but he wasn’t Madsion Bumgarner.
Don Mattingly – Short career, and he wasn’t Koufax great when he was great.
Luis Tiant – A largely unappreciated pitcher. Much more deserving than Morris, and would be a pretty decent choice, but I won’t be heartbroken if he’s left out. He’s right on the line, and I’d throw him my vote.
Alan Trammell – A great player who should be in the Hall of Fame.
Steve Garvey – Garvey during his career was certainly regarded as great; his star has fallen since. I think history has rendered a pretty reasonable judgment, albeit to some extent for issues unrelated to baseball. I think he was a much better defensive player that WAR credits him for, but that isn’t enough for me. He’s no greater a player than a lot of other first basemen.
Tommy John – Meh. I’d put Luis Tiant in first. Very good for a really long time.
Dale Murphy – Murphy’s case is not dissimilar from Mattingly’s. He was a great player for six years and suddenly, boom, he was old and sucked. Not quite at a HOF level.
Dave Parker – Like Dale Murphy but with cocaine.
Ted Simmons – Good player for a long time, and much better than some HOF catchers, but he’s not at the level expected now.
Marvin Miller – This is a philosophical argument, I guess, but I don’t really give a crap about businessmen being in the Hall of Fame. Nobody buys a ticket to see Marvin Miller argue a CBA. I also wouldn’t put owners in the Hall, either. They can be a part of the museum displays, but the Hall is for PLAYERS. (Broadcasters and journalists have the Ford Frick thing is a nice compromise.)
What are the thoughts on Dave Martinez as the Nats’ new manager? Somehow the news escaped me.
Buster Olney reports that Aaron Boone is a serious candidate for the NYY manager job. I imagine they want a relatively young guy. That he’s a former player of some significance is a little bonus. Don’t think he’s coached at any level, though. He’s a decent analyst, for whatever that’s worth.
And I don’t know who else is considered a candidate at this point.
His name has been mentioned, I’m not that impressed with him. John Flatherty is another ex-player that is getting an interview apparently.
So where will Stanton end up? The 4+ teams talked about are Giants, Cards, Phillies, Red Sox & Rangers (tepidly). Reports are he wants a contender & a coast. This leaves only the Red Sox. Or will the Dodgers, Nats or Mets get involved?
I have nothing to base this on, but the Astros could easily field a competitive offer for him, and it would certainly make life interesting for the next couple years.
A good number of the pundits on MLB Network think it’ll be the West Coast. He’s from the Los Angeles area. The two places I’ve heard most often are Anaheim and Los Angeles.
But I make no claim as to the authenticity of that rumor.
Imo, Dombrowski is using Stanton as leverage to get Martinez price down. Why trade prospects and take that horrible contract when you can get a less horrible contract for nothing?
The Dodgers certainly have the resources to tempt Miami, and if they have lost faith in Joc Pederson that’s an understandable move to make. Someone has to move to center field but whatever.
Dodger Stadium is a place that punishes contact hitters; you really have to hit home runs to be successful there. Stanton would be a fine fit.
I kind of hope you’re right. Stanton would be incredible at Fenway, but I can’t imagine who they’d have to give up among Benintendi, Devers, Bogaerts or maybe even Betts. I’m thinking at lease 2 of those names.
I’d give them Bradley, move Benny to center and put Stanton in left.
But yeah, this doesn’t look sincere. Boston’s holes are at 1B (but lots of FA candidates) and (sadly, it must be said) 2B, middle relief too, but not OF.
I know I’m hoping Stanton stays NL. Boston would be a terrible landing spot as far as I’m concerned, because you know, I’m a Yankees fan.
Well, unless he regressed to 2016 Giancarlo Stanton, in which case your divisional rival will be paying a hell of a lot of money for a guy who isn’t all that important.
There IS some risk involved in trading the farm for Stanton.
Carlos Beltran retires, in a surprise to no one. His 2004 postseason is one of the greatest of all time. Funny how after a career of great postseason performances for teams that weren’t quite good enough, he won his World Series ring after a series in which he went 0 for 3.
Oh my god if Jeter and company traded Stanton for JBJ straight up I’d fully expect Rob Manfred to void the trade.
It’d be interesting to have some sort of discussing about the greatest postseason ever. Beltran was amazing in 2004 - but of course no ring.
Christy Mathewson, of course, threw three shutouts in one World Series, in 1905.
In 2011 David Freese drove in 21 runs and won the World Series; he was MVP of both the LCS and World Series.
Orel Hershiser pretty much was the Dodgers in 1988. Madison Bumgarner was even greater in 2014.
Bob Gibson more or less single-handedly won the 1967 World Series; he started 3 games, won them all in complete games, and hit a home run in Game 7.
The question was about where they’d play him, if not DH (with Hanley sent down the road somehow). They’d have to include more talent, sure, but mainly a trade would be about Miami clearing $300 million from the books - and Boston could afford to take it. The problem would be the top farm talent, much of which they dealt last year, and would be what Jeter mostly wants. So that’s why I think Dombrowski is just posturing.
If he’s going anywhere, it’s to a big-market team that can take on that contract and has top prospects to deal, as well as needing to fill a hole in the lineup. So he’s goin’ back to Cali.