MLB Hot Stove

People on Twitter were freaking out that Judge didn’t win it. One person called it “one of the worst MVP choices ever.”

Now, I think Altuve was the right choice, but… man ,even if you truly think Aaron Judge was a better player than Jose Altuve, if you think this was one of the worst choices ever, you can only believe the MVP Award just started last year. I would guess, without going to the trouble of looking it up, that in the history of the award there have been at least 25 genuinely stupid MVP selections - ones that just can’t be defended by a reasonable person.

My standard for “bad MVP choice” is that it has to be a bad choice. If Jose has 8.0 WAR and Ted has 7.7 WAR but they give it to Ted, you cannot with a straight face say that’s a bad choice. You might disagree but you can’t say there isn’t a pretty good argument for Ted. A tiny difference in one analytical stat is not a basis for calling the voters stupid.

I leaned towards Judge but knew Altuve was going to win it. I knew it was fairly close and the fact Judge was already getting ROY would work against him a little. I also acknowledge I am prejudiced in favor of Judge as a Yankee fan and by his home run total. Once Hawkeyeop pointed out Judge’s clutch stats this year, I was more than fine with Altuve winning. I’m guessing Judge will have a few more chances to win it anyway.

Of those 25 stupid choices, are you accounting for the fact, the award use to only go to players on winning teams? Also the fact that in the earliest years repeats were not allowed, thus reducing Babe Ruth’s MVP awards. Also take into account, if your argument is based on WAR, then there was nothing stupid about not using a stat that wasn’t accepted until about 10 years ago by the writers.

So, saying all that, who are the 25 stupid choices, or for that matter the 10 stupidest choices?

If the Yankees make a deal for Stanton I’ll eat my boots. It’s exactly the kind of contract they are trying to avoid. Nice to see some morons in Florida underestimating Jeter, though.

As for Judge, I’m happy. Mike Trout has finished second three times. It’s an honor. Some people will freak out on Twitter on any subject.

ETA: With the benefit of hindsight and the advent of WAR, 1996 was pretty bad. The winner, Juan Gonzalez, came in at 3.8 when Griffey jr. and A-Rod were both over 9.

Looking over MVP awards from the past it seems that RBI trumped all. In 1996, Griffey had more homers and Rodriguez had a much higher batting average, but Gonzalez had the 144 RBI. I must say that I’m impressed that Gonzalez managed 47 homers/144 RBI in 134 games, though.

There are a bunch from the 80s and 90s that basically involve overrating low-OBP, high-RBI sluggers - both Juan Gonzalez wins (96 and 98) and Andre Dawson in 87 (Ozzie Smith or Jack Clark were more productive and actually led their teams to the playoffs; Tony Gwynn was by far the best NL player that year) spring to mind. The two worst that I can think of are George Bell over Alan Trammell in 1987 - this one was a big scandal at the time, as enough voters sent their ballots in before the last week of the season that they didn’t take into account Toronto’s last-week collapse that put the Tigers into the postseason - and Mo Vaughn over Albert Belle in 1995 - for this one, some sportswriters invented the rule that if your team won too many games, then you weren’t really that valuable because your team would have won the division anyway. This was a blatantly obvious attempt to justify not voting for Belle because they hated Belle’s guts (and Belle was, by all accounts, a genuinely unpleasant person). Looking back at the numbers, Edgar Martinez was slightly better than Belle, and Boston SS John Valentin actually had the best WAR that year but Belle clearly blew Vaughn out of the water by the standards of the time. Terry Pendleton over Barry Bonds in 1991 was also obviously wrong at the time and clearly done just because sportswriters didn’t like Bonds and didn’t want to give him back-to-back MVPs.

Well of course they were! That’s what twitter is FOR.

Tom Scud:

Don Mattingly won his 1985 MVP purely on the basis of his RBI total. By other numbers - even the ones in common use back then, not stuff like WAR or OPS+, Rickey Henderson or George Brett would have been more worthy of the honor.

That is not true at all. Prior to the modern playoff system lots of players on non-winning teams won MVP Awards. (I assume you mean non winnig as in “didn’t make the playoffs.” Cal Ripken, Dawson, Ernie Banks twice, Keith Hernandez sort of, Mike Schmidt in 1986, Burroughs, Jim Rice, Bobby Shantz, Yogi Berra in 1954, Willie Mays in 1965, Orlando Cepeda, and on and on.

First of all, Babe Ruth never won the modern incarnation of the MVP Award. The Award as it currently exists was created in 1931.

Almost all of the worst MVP choices of all time were relief pitchers. Choosing a guy who pitched 80 innings, like Dennis Eckersley in 1992, is simply insane. Eckersley would not have been the MVP if he literally had not given up a single run. Even prior to that when relief pitchers pitched more, like Willie Hernandez in 1984, it was a crazy choice. Willie had a hell of a year but he was not the most valuable player on his own team. So there’s four bad choices; Konstanty, Fingers, Hernandez, and Eckersley.

Once you get past that, you can find a lot of silly choices picked because they guy drove in a lot of runs, even if he wasn’t all that good at anything else.

This is a phenomenon that has happened throughout baseball history. Hank Sauer in 1952 was a preposterous selection. He led the league in homers and RBI but he was a slug of an outfielder on a 77-77 team. Andre Dawson in 1987 led the league in homers and RBI and did nothing else well, and his team finished dead last; he wasn’t one of the ten best outfielders in the league. The same year they gave AL MVP to George Bell, who was better than Andre Dawson but who really should have sent his award to Alan Trammell. Awhile after that they gave an MVP Award to Justin Morneau because… honestly I am not sure why. He had a good year in 2006 but an OK defensive first baseman who doesn’t lead the league in any offensive category does not scream “MVP” to me. Derek Jeter, who finished a close second, was a clearly superior choice, and so were some other guys. Other examples of the RBI Guy winning over a way better player (not a slightly better player) would be Jackie Jensen in 1958, Jeff Burroughs in 1974, or Don Baylor in 1979. Juan Gonzalez in 1996 was a ridiculous selection, probably as bad as any in MVP history.

I should point out, incidentally, that I am actually being more generous ion my definition of a bad selection than some people who have posted before me. I agree Don Mattingly was a poor choice in 1985 - Rickey Henderson or George Brett were much better picks. But he wasn’t AS bad a choice as some of my examples, certainly being a way better player than the likes of Hank Sauer, and in 1985 the BBWAA’s understanding of how baseball players should be judged was not what it is today. Mattingly’s selection is not a really bad pick the way Dawson or Bell were two years later. I’m also unwilling to assume WAR is always right, because it simply isn’t, and especially in the past small differences shouldn’t be made much of; BBREF says Mickey Mantle was 0.6 WAR better than Nellie Fox in 1959, but no one can look you in the eye and tell you honestly that they are SURE Mickey Mantle had a better year than Fox based on that metric being retroactively applied to 1959. 0.6 WAR is a very small margin.

I’d also shrug at anything REALLY far back, like Frankie Frisch in 1932 or Ernie Lombardi in 1938. This was a time when just knowing how many walks a guy had was not easy information to get - the year Frankie Frisch won the MVP AWard, they didn’t even count the number of times you were caught stealing. They certainly had no understanding of things like park factors, and our true understanding of the defensive abilities of guys in that era is not, in my opinion, reliable on a year to year basis.

I always had a problem with the selection of Guillermo (Willie) Hernandez as AL MVP in 1984 because I didn’t see his contribution to the Detroit Tigers any greater than the other notable players on the team. I thought if they had to pick somebody from the Tigers, they should’ve picked Alan Trammell but the the writers probably didn’t want to select another shortstop after they gave the MVP to Yount in 1982 and Ripken in 1983. Oddly enough, when they polled the players in the AL about who they thought was the most valuable player on Tigers that season and the overwhelming choice was catcher Lance Parrish.

And on the basis of being a Yankee.
Obligatory comment: Pitchers have their own award and should be excluded from MVP voting.

That is all.

Since 1980, three Yankees have won the MVP. Mattingly once and A-Rod twice. Jeter should have won it in 1999. Where is this New York bias in MVP award voting?

I agree about pitchers, though.

But pitchers are part of the line-up and should not be excluded from the MVP selection process simply because of the position they play. If you are going to exclude pitchers because they’re also covered by the Cy Young Award, you might as well split everything into awards for Most Valuable Hitting and Most Valuable Defense. In fact, you could probably sub-divide pitching into awards for starting pitching, middle relief, and closer.

I wouldn’t include pitchers in the MVP discussion. It is fine to include defense in consideration for an MVP award, and I’m fine with catchers being included even though very few catchers play every game in a week of the regular season. But, a starting pitcher’s role is almost exclusively limited to pitching every 5th day. Sure, it’s nice if they can hit a bit or can field well, but 99.99% of how you judge a starting pitcher is by their pitching stats.

The way the MVP has been handed out since 1931, pitchers are included, so a discussion of whether a pitcher was a bad choice or not should be based on whether or not it’s clear they were not the most valuable player in the league. Pitchers are baseball players. If in the future they are excluded from MVP Awards, well, then they will be.

A starting pitcher may only pitch every fifth game but I don’t see why they cannot be more valuable than a hitter. A starting pitcher has FAR more influence over the results of each of the 33-35 games they pitch than a hitter has on each of the game they play in. A starter can face far more batters in at-bats than a single batter will even have at-bats in a season.

Yeah, I always think of Steve Carlton in 1972. Not only was he a great pitcher having a great, great season, but he pitched all the time.

It was an era where teams often used a four-man rotation, so Carlton started 41 games that season. And the expectation for going deep in the game was different from what it is today, so he completed 30 games. In all, he pitched just about exactly a quarter of his team’s innings. WAR scores him at a remarkable 12.5, about three points higher than anyone else in the NL that year, and I can’t say that’s an overestimate. He didn;t get the MVP, which went to Bench (who was also great and played for a champion), but I don’t really see any justification for excluding him from consideration except the “pitchers have their own award” argument.

Whether starters are as valuable today…well, that’s another question. The Kershaws and Scherzers and Verlanders and Klubers of today are terrific pitchers, but they don’t start 40 games a year, and they aren’t expected to pitch for nearly as long when they do make an appearance. Kluber led all of baseball in innings per start this year, I believe, with 7. (Carlton averaged 8 and a half.) So the argument’s harder to make. Even so, Kluber had a WAR total of 8.1, the same as Judge and just a couple of ticks below Altuve, and I’m not sure that’s right but I wouldn’t bet the house on it being wrong either. A really good starting pitcher is a really valuable thing.

Well how about a Yankee also won the award in
1976 1963 1962 1961 1960 1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1950 1947 1943 1942 1941 1939 1936.

Now it’s true the Yankees won the pennant in many of those years, but that’s not the statistics you’re citing.

So since 1964, 53 years, there have only been 4 Yankee MVPs. Looks like a bias against New York to me.

Which of the pre-1964 awards do you have a quibble with? (not that I give a flying fuck)

Blank Slate:

And not a single Met, to boot.

In general starters simply aren’t as valuable. There isn’t any question about it; it is a fact. If starters as a whole are barely topping 200 innings, they cannot be as valuable as if they are pitching 300 innings. Walter Johnson in 1913 is credited with 14.6 WAR, with BB-ref considered the greatest season a player has had since 1901; given that he pitched 346 innings across 36 starts (29 completed) and 12 relief appearances, yeah, I can see why that’s a bit more valuable than a guy who pitched 208 innings. (Walter also batted .261 with 13 extra base hits; as pitchers back then weren’t much better at hitting than they are now, that was a nice add on.)

It’s exactly the same as if, for some reason, all center fielders starting only playing 120 games a year, tops. As a group, they would clearly not as as valuable as they were when they played up to 162 games a year. It could not be otherwise.

Having said that, I am really, really leery of WAR as applied to starting pitchers on a season by season basis. I think it can be much more “off” than it is for batters. If you just scroll through the starting pitcher WAR leaders year over year there are ones that are just, well, tough to believe. Furthermore, I believe WAR can significantly over-value a pitcher in a high offense year - I know that seems counterintuitive, but I struggle with the idea that Pedro, as great as he was in 2000, was more valuable in a slightly injury-shortened year than any season ever put up by Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Stan Musial, Lou Gehrig, or Ted Williams.

2 news items:
**Judge **had successful arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder Monday.

**Atlanta **is being punished for illegal international signings and perks to draft picks. 12 minor league players will now be free agents and future draft penalties. Story from Yahoo Sports. John Hart resigned from the Braves over this.