I’m getting a little bit of a jump start on this thread, but it seems like a reasonable time to do it as the last week of the season winds down.
All of the National League postseason teams are known at this point: the Mets and Dodgers are division winners, and the Cubs are guaranteed to be one of the wildcard teams. The Cardinals and Pirates are in a fight for the division title, but the Cards are almost certainly going to capture the NL Central crown.
In the American League, things are less certain: the Royals are the only team to have captured their division, and the Blue Jays are the only other team to have clinched a playoff spot (though they are very near winning the AL East). The Rangers, Angels, Astros, Twins, Yankees and even Indians are still vying for a spot. The AL West still looks reasonably uncertain about who will win the division. Possibly a fun weekend ahead there.
That being said, I’m curious about who folks here think has the best shot of winning the World Series at this point. It’s all about being hot at the right time, and no one has been hotter than the Angels and Pirates over the last 10 games. The Cardinals and Blue Jays aren’t slouching, either. I never count the Cards out, but I’m feeling like this could be Pittsburgh’s year.
Thoughts? Hopes? Frankly, I could stand just about any scenario other than A-Rod walking away with another ring this season.
I, for one, am still finding joy watching my Red Sox try to ruin it for those contending for playoff spots.
I hope the Astros find their way to that 2nd wild card spot in the AL. But whoever it is, I just hope they beat the NYY in the dreaded one game series. I’m still bothered by the 1 game series. In the case of a tie, it’s fine. But for an actual playoff series between 2 teams who could possibly have vastly different records, a single game, for me, minimizes the 162 game regular season.
My prediction for WS champ at the moment is Toronto because they hit the crap out of the ball and with Stroman in the rotation, their pitching is nothing to scoff at.
I mentioned in the September thread that the Cards have Wainwright back. He’s expected to pitch out of the bullpen. If he’s really healthy, that makes the bullpen – which was already pretty good – even better. The last time Wainwright pitched from the bullpen in the postseason was 2006. That seemed to work out OK . On the other hand, if Molina is out for an extended period, that’s gonna be a problem.
Not me. A spoiler is just a team that couldn’t get it done when it mattered. And I don’t think that’s what they’re trying to be - what you’re seeing is mainly the young players getting a chance to show they belong, or at least get showcased for trade value, and they’re mostly doing well. The problems that drove them into the basement were from high-salaried veterans slacking off, and management letting them. The new GM and the new manager made the difference, just too late. It may get … *interesting *when Farrell is healthy again and the team is still playing better for Lovullo than they did for him.
I’ll go with that too, despite the lack of a hot closer (maybe Stroman can fill in, if he’s having durability problems?), and with Tulo coming back just in time. Everyone else just looks like they have too many holes, despite their records.
Perhaps you missed Roberto Osuna? Sure, he’s young, but he’s a hell of a pitcher. There is zero chance - none- Toronto tries anyone else in the closer’s role. If Osuna is so bad that they’d even think about it, their playoffs would already be over.
I’m a Blue Jays fan, so of course I’m picking Toronto. This is a team with an awful lot of strengths and very few holes. The offense, of course, is otherworldly. The defense is nearly flawless. Price and Stroman give them a fantastic 1-2 punch, and the bullpen is built around three excellent relievers (Osuna, Lowe and Cecil) with some decent depth guys.
As for weaknesses? There aren’t really any quality left-handed bats on the team, but when you hit like the Jays do, who cares? They also don’t have a lot of LHP in the pen, so Cecil will be a key guy for them. Marco Estrada isn’t anywhere near as good as his numbers might indicate, but he’s probably the #4 starter, so we’ll just take what we can get from him.
The Mets have been extremely hot since the magic tears flowed. I think they have a chance to make the series; they’ve been able to handle the Dodgers even before their offense turned around and their pitching matches up well, too. They’re also a power hitting team, with every position but shortstop (and that, too, if Flores plays there) able to hurt you if you make a bad pitch.
I don’t think the Dodgers have it in them to get past both the Mets and the Cards, so our post-season stay will likely be brief. But just wait until next year!
The Wild Card Game emphasizes the importance of the season (relative to what we had before). These are the teams which, over the long season, failed to win their division. The whole point is to give a structural handicap to that failure, plus lock in the excitement of Must Win games (which everybody loves as tiebreakers, but that doesn’t happen every year).
Anything longer than a single game gives them freedom in arranging pitching and playing odds, rather than absolutely requiring the best starter plus “all hands on deck” in relief.
It’s true that being hot in October is all that matters, but there really isn’t any truth to September momentum carrying over. The myth of October momentum.
Of course, if your playoff bound team is sputtering in September, you can hope they’re like the 2000 Yankees who went 5-21 down the stretch.
I’m not sure anyone can stop Toronto, but should they get in, I’m hoping the Mets win the NL pennant.
Fun? FUN? I spend my evenings on the couch with my heart in my mouth and this is your idea of fun? My friend, you are seriously twisted. See, I figured the Rangers were out of the race in April. Then Magic May happened, June was looking good til it didn’t. By mid-August, it was just plain abysmal. In September, a miracle occurred and Team Lazarus rose from the dead and walked. Hell, they RAN to the top. Then said “What the hell are we doing here?” And they’re teetering along these last few games raising my blood pressure and making the neighbors worried about my state of mind.
At least you’re still speaking to them. We broke up after they lost the frigging series BY ONE EFFING OUT and I haven’t forgiven them since. We may hook back up if there’s rings involved, but I can’t be certain.
As it stands they’re my favourite to win, too. But the odds are against them winning. They’ve got a plurality of the chance, if you see what I mean. No matter how good a team is, and they are very good, they can always lose a playoff series against anyone. No team is LIKELY to win three playoff series; last year’s two #1 seeds both blew out in the divisional series.
I mean, if I had to bust up the chances among all the apparent playoff teams (which we don’t entirely know so to simplify it I’ll assume Texas will finish first) I’d go
Toronto 25%
St. Louis 20%
Los Angeles 12%
Kansas City 10%
Whichever Team Wins The NL Wild Card 10%
Mets 10%
Texas 8%
Whichever Team Wins the AL Wild Card 5%
I didn’t put a lot of thought into this so I’m not standing behind the numbers, but saying a team has a 25% chance of winning it all is a HUGE compliment. I am basically saying Toronto is twice as likely to win the World Series as random chance would dictate.
Here’s the deal. The only team in the AL West I don’t like is the Angels, and they’ve been such a non-issue this season that even they’ve fallen off my radar a bit. It’s a race between Texas (who I like largely because of Shin-Soo Choo), the Angels (gotta appreciate watching Trout play, if nothing else) and Houston (just a great story for baseball, IMHO). So yes, since I have no particularly dog in that race, it is fun.
Well, obviously I’d rather be talking about the Sox as my favorite to win the WS this year, but, as you said, they screwed themselves early. The youngsters (and Papi) have been playing well, but it wasn’t just the vets who sucked early on.
Since I’ve picked Toronto to win it all, I guess my NL champ will be the Cubs, whom I will root for throughout the postseason. Too bad they’ll have to play the Pirates in the stupid 1 game series, because those are 2 favorite NL teams.
Totally agree. Wildcard teams are at a double disadvantage: first, they have half a chance of being eliminated immediately. Too bad, so sad. Secondly, the winner of the wildcard one-off probably just spent their best pitcher, so they’re at a disadvantage in a short series against a division winner. And that’s as it should be.
Yep… so in the NL WC, for example, the Cubs and Pirates are going to trot out Arrieta and Cole for that game, which will make either (depending on who wins) not available until around Game 3 of the NLDS… that’s a huge disadvantage, and rightfully so!
I’d be more convinced about “rightfully so” if the Cubs and Pirates didn’t have better records than both the Mets and Dodgers by a minimum of 3 games ahead. Also they are 41-25 and 51-13 against the combined West and East.
. On the other hand, if Molina is out for an extended period, that’s gonna be a problem.
