I just wanted to point out that it doesn’t always help.
Without the wildcard, the Royals would only be one game out of being eliminated. Without the added wildcard, Pittsburgh would still be battling St. Louis for the division, but they’d also have to worry about being knocked out of the playoffs entirely. I don’t see how that would be “less on the line” than ending up in the one game play playoff.
Nats win today and clinch best record in NL.
31-12 since August 12. Pretty impressive. It’s hard to believe almost half the losses came in two series with the last place Phillies.
It’s hard to believe only one Nat went to the All Star Game.
Corey Kluber made his final push to win the Cy Young Award, throwing eight innings of shutout baseball against the Rays, striking out 11. He finishes 18-9 with a 2.44 ERA.
And Kansas City is headed to the post-season for the first time in the lifetime of a lot of Dopers. 
Here’s hoping they actually catch Detroit for the division.
That was well worth the 29 year wait. I was only 10 at the time back then, and it’s been a long, arduous slog. This has been a pretty magical season already - 12 more wins. Just 12 more wins…
Anaheim-Los Angeles Series?
Oakland-San Francisco Series?
St. Louis-Kansas City Series?
Baltimore-Washington Series?
The regular season races will almost always be less exciting with an extra wild card. That’s just basic math. They have been less exciting every year since its introduction and will continue to be so.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing. More teams in the playoffs and a graduated scale (full playoffs, wild card game, out) means less drama by definition. You don’t get the same potential for huge swings, all or nothings. But the goal was meaningful games (though not necessarily dramatic) between top teams. Like when Oakland and Anaheim were way ahead of everyone this year, under the old system we would have known they were both getting “full playoffs”, so the games wouldn’t have mattered. But with the new system, those games did matter. As it turned out, even that would have led to more drama under the old system, but we didn’t know at the time that Oakland’s collapse would reach legendary status.
You mean all both of them? And last year’s American League Wild Card had Cleveland Texas and Tampa going down to the last day and the three teams ending up only one game apart with an extra classic playoff game to determine Tampa got the spot.
In any case I think your basic math is wrong. I believe Statistics would show you’re likely to have close races for second bests among three groups. Of course that can be dismissed as unexciting I suppose by perennial first placers like Boston and New York (oh wait).
Revenge for 1985!
I’d like to see that math. BTW, it’s probably not as basic as you think.
Even a cursory review of the history of pennant races would seem to demonstrate that the truth is exactly the opposite of what you’re saying. We’ve got four basic eras of playoff systems:
During this period it was very common for MLB to have no real playoff race at all. Just eyeballing the races from 1920 on, fewer than half of all pennant races went down to the last week and in many cases were basically over by August. In some cases such as 1925, 1929, 1931, arguable 1936, and on and on, there was very little meaningful baseball in either league being played in September.
This system does not get off to a great start in 1969, when three of four divisions are decided long before season’s end and I don’t remember the NL West being a thrill ride. You start getting tight races in 1971 though (including the bizarre 1972 AL East, when Detroit wins the division because they got to play one more game than Boston.) Without doing the math, my perception is that there are more thrilling races in this period than in the league system, but slightly fewer as a percentage of the number of POSSIBLE races. This makes sense to me; it seems that if you have 6-7 teams per race you are less likely to have two very good teams with close records than if you have 8-10 teams per race.
One Wild Card, 1995-2011. This period gets off to a great start; in 1995 the Yankees, Mariners and Angels all fight to the end, resulting in New York clinching a spot ahead of Seattle and Anaheim having to play a one game playoff, while Colorado edges out Houston on the last day of the season. In fact, MOST seasons under the wild card system have some kind of race on the last weekend; the 1999 and 2001 AL and 2000 NL are the only seasons that really have no race to speak of. There is never a year when both leagues are over well before the conclusion of the season. From 2003 to 2011 there are something like ten races decided by one or two games, and I believe three decided by a playoff game.
Two Wild Cards, 2012-2013. In 2012 the NL second wild card was won by two games. The AL wild card was by three games, but that included Texas being overtaken by Oakland at the very end for the AL West and Texas blowing out in the wild card game - an absolute textbook example of why you REALLY want to win your division instead of playing the wild card game, and why that race matters. In 2013 we had a wild AL finish, noted by OldGuy, in which three teams fought to the final day of the season. The NL was not particularly thrilling, but so far the two-WC system has generated some thrilling finishes.
In 2014 we didn’t seem to have any super exciting races; things were up in the air a few weeks ago, but Milwaukee died. Seattle could still tie Oakland, though they need some help to do it; as badly as Oakland has fallen, Seattle as quietly blown a terrific chance. Ain’t over yet though. Overall, though, the two-WC era has had NO total blowout years.
Maybe we have gotten lucky but I’d like to see the math that proves this system is less likely to produce pennant races.
BTW, not to pile on Oakland, but surely their midseason moves have to be some of the LEAST successful deadline trades in recent memory? Basically they ran out to get Lester, Samardjizilla (spelling approximate) and Hammel, and in so doing, basically let Tommy Milone go for nothing and traded away Yoenis Cespedes.
Almost nothing about this has worked. The Fuld-Gomes platoon that replaced Cespedes has been terrible; Yoenis wasn’t great before and hasn’t been great since, but he’s still better than they are. Hammel is 2-6, Smardjizola (spelling might be wrong there) is 5-5 though he’s pitched well, and Lester has pitched very well at 6-4 but it’s hard to see that those three guys collectively are that much better than the arms they replaced; Oakland didb’t have ANY bad starting pitchers before the trades, and Hammel is now the only bad one they have. The team almost immediately began finding ways to lose games and has thrown away the division and is just barely in a wild card spot. It wasn’t a great second half.
(Cough) Jeter (cough)
Better than that, there’s a real possibility of Lester re-signing with Boston, who has Cespedes for another year anyway.
Allegedly it’s well beyond a mere possibility and into probability.
Getting LESTER, in particular, wasn’t a bad move, Lester might be the best pitcher on the staff. If it wins you a World Series, who cares where he goes? The trade with Chicago, however, solved problems that didn’t exist - I still do not understand why they replaced Milone with Hammel - and created ones that do. If they were intent on moving peices around why not trade Milone for an outfielder to fill in for Cespedes? Oh, wait, they did - Sam Fuld. Wait, was a 32-year-old AAA hitter really the best they could get for a proven major league starting pitcher? The A’s released Fuld before the season started, and now he’s worth a #4 starter? Surely to God if they planned to get rid of Milone, they could have moved him before, or coincidental to, the Chicago trade, and someone needing a starting pitcher would have coughed up someone better than Sam Fuld?
Granted, the excitement of a race is subjective. I personally don’t get nearly as excited for a race with a smaller swing (full playoffs vs wild card or wild card vs out) than for one with an all or nothing finish. So for me, it really is basic math that the races won’t be as exciting. In my favor, I offer the video evidence of teams celebrating after clinching at least a wild card. Can you honestly say a race is just as exciting when both teams have already been shown on tv dousing each other with alcohol in jubilation?
However, let’s look at your examples.
2012 was a textbook example of why the old system was more exciting. Yes, we saw Texas lose the wild card game. But did you realize that they would have played that same game under the old system (because it was a tie)? The games were exactly the same as under the old system, but it was the difference between walking a tightrope with a net vs no net.
With two wild cards, Texas, Oakland, and Baltimore already knew they had clinched at least a wild card going into the last day. Hell, Oakland had already celebrated days earlier. With only one wild card, up until the very last day Oakland and Texas would have had the chance to either win the division or miss out on the playoffs entirely. It would have been exponentially more dramatic. It turned out Texas and Baltimore tied, but wouldn’t that have been more dramatic if it was serendipity, than if we already knew they had clinched at least a wild card game days ago? The tie itself was meaningless given they had clinched already.
2013 is a better example. It was certainly crazier under the new system. Under the old system, Cleveland would have won the wild card by a single game, and had won 10 straight to end the year. They would have needed every one of the victories. Tampa Bay lost 2 out of 3 to end the season, which means they went from in front to behind Cleveland in the last 3 games. All to nothing (under the old system). Personally, I find that just as exciting as what happened, where Tampa got an extra chance and dumped Cleveland in the Wild Card game.
Well, at the moment I’m watching the Giants resting players for the 2nd straight day (since they have clinched the Wild Card) while the Cardinals and Pirates still have something to play for. If they all still had something to play for I’m pretty sure nobody would be resting.
I’m at the Paul Konerko retirement ceremony. Very classy job, White Sox.
Sounds like there are more Cards fans than D-Back fans at Chase Field tonite.
My god, this is what baseball is all about. The Mariners are desperate to make the playoffs, and they have to finish the season against the first-place team, while the team they’re chasing gets to finish the season against the worst team in the league.
PRESSURE!