Well, to be fair, in the deciding game against the Phillies St. Louis had great pitching.
What you want, I think, is to have a team that is good enough to make the playoffs. Generally this means above-average pitching and above-average offense. If you only have one, over 162 games, above-average pitching is probably more reliable.
Then, in the playoffs, you wanna have a few hitters get hot (Cruz, Freese, I’m looking at you) and a few pitchers pitch the games of their lives (Carpenter, nice job in Game 5 buddy, if you’d do it again in Game 1 and/or 5 of the WS we can start work on that statue outside of Busch). Then you drink champagne.
Projecting playoff results into general rules about how to build a team only leads to madness and frustration, IMO. Build your team to make the playoffs - do it enough and eventually you’ll win a title.
No-one here has been arguing that pitching is unimportant, or that having a good pitching staff doesn’t improve your chances of winning. All we’ve been saying is that simplistic bromides like “Pitching shuts down hitting” essentially tell us nothing about baseball, and actually obscure the very issue that they claim to elucidate.
Yeah, I’ve been pushing back against that as well, but at some point you just have to throw your hands up and let it go, ya know? Hell, I really hope that the team with the worst pitching wins this series - it’ll go nicely with that title my team won with shitty hitting in 2006.
So, thoughts on the upcoming series no doubt to be decided by which pitching staff gives up less runs that the opponent in four games first?
I like the Cardinals, but I think Texas has better pitching and better hitting. I I think it’s one thing to have your starters turn in a series of weak performances against a team that surrendered a bunch of runs on errors like Milwaukee did, but I don’t think Texas is going to do that.
Well, the 2006 Cardinals won the World Series with starting pitching that consisted of Chris Carpenter plus some guys who, if you look at their overall careers, were mediocre at best, but who were at the top of their game in October '06. (Jeff Suppan, solid middle-of-the-rotation-type pitcher for St. Louis, later to be a disappointment as starting pitcher for the Brewers, was NLCS MVP. Jeff Weaver stepped out of the shadow of his brother Jered just long enough to help the Cards win it all. Anthony Reyes had perhaps one lifetime great game in him, but he pitched that one against the Tigers in the World Series.) This year, the Cardinals have, well, Chris Carpenter plus some guys.
My point is that just about any pitcher, including those in the Cards’ starting rotation, is capable of having occasional great games where they pitch well above their average level, and occasional lousy games where they uncharacteristically just suck. If some or all of them have the former kind of game in the next few days, the Cardinals have a reasonable chance. If they have the latter kind, not so much. Although that’s what happened in the NLCS, where they got away with it because their bullpen was pitching at a high level while the Brewers’ pitchers were also having some sucky days—but they’re not going to be able to get away with it against Texas.
So the big question is, what happened to the St. Louis starters so far: Are they out of gas, or unable to handle the pressure of the postseason? Or did they just have an uncharacteristically bad few starts, of the sort that they can and will rebound from? Lohse and Garcia and Jackson can be good pitchers—but will they be?
A lot of the comparison hinges on how strong you think the leagues are. If the leagues are equal you’d have trouble convincing me Texas has a better lineup. St. Louis led their league in runs, Texas did not. St. Louis had a better OPS+. I see no real weaknesses in either team that can be exploited - they’re both really, really deep offensive teams - so statistically you have to give St. Louis an edge just because, overall, they simply hit better. Unless the leagues are different.
And having said, that, I think it clear the AL is the stronger league. The AL has done better than .500 in interleague games eight years in a row. In fact, almost every way you break it down, Texas keeps looking better:
Texas had a better record.
Texas’s record is actually a few games worse than their runs scored/allowed would suggest. St. Louis was slightly better than would be expected.
Texas is a significantly better pitching team - it’s not just the playoffs, St. Louis has had mediocre pitching all year - and while hitting matters, postseason history would suggest a slight bias towards the team with superior pitching.
Of course, you never know. If St. Louis can beat Philadelphia I don’t see why they can’t bet Texas.
So I’ll bet on Texas, but I sure wouldn’t bet anything I couldn’t afford to lose.
[QUOTE=Jas09]
…it’ll go nicely with that title my team won with shitty hitting in 2006.
[/QUOTE]
The 2006 Cardinals had a good offense. Like this team, they were actually a better hitting team than they were at pitching. Not AS much better, but better.
I would say that the 2006 Cardinals had a marginal offense (shitty was definitely overselling it). They were 6th in the league runs scored. Their OPS+ was 97. The postseason lineup had at least 4 players in it with sub-average offense (Molina, Eckstein, Taguchi, Belliard).
The pitching was equally mediocre - 98 ERA+. They were one of only two teams in that chart I linked up-thread that were below average in both measures (the 1987 Twins were the others - and who did they beat again?).
I consider it karmic justice for the awesome 2004 and 2005 teams not winning a title, and payback for the 85 and 87 Cardinals losing to inferior teams as well.
As to this series, I’m with ya. When I look at the park-adjusted offensive numbers it’s hard to not come away with the impression that the St. Louis lineup is better. The only caveat is league quality. And when you add in that the Texas pitchers are pretty solidly ahead it’s easy to see why Texas is the 60/40 favorite.
To the best of my recollection, I have never lived in a city where a World Series game was taking place. The closest was about 60 miles from Baltimore. (Yes, it was a long time ago!)
There are still some odd tickets available for tomorrow’s game. The cheapest is $150.
Really? You mean secondary market or from the Cards? When I checked earlier the official site had no tickets. And last I checked StubHub SRO was about $200.
I’m currently in line for my seats for Game 6 - now I just have to hope it goes that long (although I’ll happily forgo my attendance if it means the Cards win in 4 or 5 - I’ll just placate myself by going to the parade).
I thought it would be obvious that by mentioning the Baltimore Orioles I was making a clear point that good pitching always shuts down good hitting in the playoffs.
StubHub is the Cardinals’ only authorized broker/reseller. I’ve never dealt with them, but the Cardinals have made it clear that SH is authorized, and no one else.
Stub Hub has some right field tickets available for $205 (and up). There appear to be tickets available almost anywhere at increasing prices. Geez, I’m tempted. The ability to go to a Series game is unsurpassed, and I may never have another chance.
And, I’m leaving for Denver on Saturday for good. While springing a few hundred bucks for a ticket doesn’t fit in my budget, I guess I could eat light for a while. Geez, I’m tempted.
Maybe I’ll wait and see if the Cards get shellacked tomorrow. The prices might drop a bit for Thursday. If they don’t, oh well, too bad too sad.
I’ve used StubHub a bunch of times. In fact, they are now my first stop when i’m looking for a ticket, because you can nearly always get seats at less than face value (although not for a WS game, i’m sure).
I’ve used them for games in Baltimore, San Francisco, and San Diego, and never had a problem.
OK, fuck it. I’m going to be in bleacher section 595 (left field verging on center) row 4, seat 3 for $280.
Stop and say hello! (If I’m there. My tendency at ball games is to wander the stadium and watch from different angles. Perhaps the Secret Service will limit my wandering though.)
