Most likely outcome of the Ukraine–Russia conflict in 10 years

[nearwildheaven]

My vote was “some other scenario”, and it will depend on when and if Vlad dies or becomes disabled.

[DrDeth]

@HMS_Irruncible

So my reply was going off memory, I have no idea what Snarky_Kong was referring to with Crimea voting to stay with Ukraine. It makes sense but I’m not aware of whatever referendum he’s referring to.

Neither do I. However, I found it-

History of Crimea (1991–2014)

It is twisted and tortured since Crimea was kinda sorta and independent state for a while- Ukrainian independence was supported by a referendum later in 1991 in all regions of the Ukrainian SSR, including Crimea (although in Crimea the independence was supported by a slim majority).[3][4][5]

In 1994, the legal status of Crimea as part of Ukraine was backed up by Russia, who pledged to uphold the territorial integrity of Ukraine in a memorandum signed in 1994, also signed by the US and UK.[23][24]

IIt seems like Crimea was not long part of Ukraine.

[psychonaut]

@HMS_Irruncible

I was thinking of the 2014 referendum which is purported as being 97% in favor of Crimea joining Russia. This was a referendum done at gunpoint, with Russian military occupying the buildings and controlilng the election, and the ballot didn’t even contain an option to maintain status quo.

As @alphaboi867 points out, the result may not have been much different in a referendum conducted in any other circumstances. The peninsula’s two administrative divisions only narrowly voted for Ukraine’s independence from the USSR in the 1991 referendum (contrasting markedly from the 84 to 99% support in every other division). Opinion polling in the decade or so prior to annexation by Russia consistently showed very strong support for uniting with Russia (65% to 70% in three-way yes/no/undecided polls). And purely anecdotally, I know several (expatriate) Crimeans who supported such a union years before it happened, and who were overjoyed when it finally came to pass.

[HMS_Irruncible]

@psychonaut

As @alphaboi867 points out, the result may not have been much different in a referendum conducted in any other circumstances

The only way to be sure is demilitarize the peninsula and hold an actual referendum monitored by international observers.

Let’s be real, if the outcome were really likely to break toward Russia, they wouldn’t have felt the need to annex the territory and run an election under military control.

[aceplace57]

Choose this one. I can’t see Russia giving up claims to parts of Ukraine. It’s too important and they see Ukraine as being a part of Russia.

A lot depends on continued Western support.

The conflict has become frozen, with little or no active fighting but with no peace treaty and both sides maintaining their claims to the annexed territories.

[X.L.Lent]

I voted “other”. Russia will probably take over Ukraine but will have spend much time and energy fighting an Ukrainian underground bent on causing the Russians as much trouble as possible.