I’ve seen plenty of discussion of what Putin would want to get out of any negotiation: pro-Russian government, permanently abandon Nato membership, accept independence of Donblas, and Russian ownership of Crimea. That would be considered (by most “westerners”, myself included) a “bad” settlement.
But what if things don’t go his way? What would be the best realistic outcome? I mean theoretically the combination of military setbacks and the affects of sanctions could just result in a full Russian withdrawal and a return to the status quo, with no concessions from Ukraine to Putin’s demands. But that seems pretty optimistic IMO (given Russian military superiority and that fact it would be seriously damaging, possibly fatal to Putin’s political prestige).
So what would be more realistic “best case” outcome if the Russian military advance is slow and costly enough, and the sanctions painful enough? Presumably the government could step down, but that would result in elections which would likely result in a pretty anti-Russian successor (given the current situation). They could agree not to try and join NATO, but that not be remotely binding, presumably ?
They could agree not to try to join NATO, and then join NATO.
Hey, if we can renege on our treaties to defend the Ukraine in exchange for them giving up nuclear weapons, and Russia can renege on their treaties to not invade in exchange for the same, then it’s only fair.
Plus of course there almost no chance of NATO allowing them to join (even though they will never allow themselves to be forced to say they can’t join).
Given all that, Ukraine “promising” not to join NATO seems a fairly good face saving compromise for all involved.
Either Russia succeeds and installs a puppet regime by force or the war goes bad enough and sanctions are bad enough for the oligarchs that Russia has a coup and retreats. Zero chance there’s a negotiated retreat for promises of staying out of NATO.
Putin retires to someplace like Bolivia, with 10% of the money he’s stolen over the years, and we agree not to go after him anymore if he stays the fuck there.
Putin wants to incorporate the historic parts of Ukraine that he regards as part of the Russian identity. There are Russian saints buried in Ukraine, part of the Russian soul. Whether the rest of Russia shares his dream is another matter. He lives in a bubble.
I doubt he is interested in all of it and it would be very difficult and expensive to occupy the country completely. He would need to create a huge security organisation to de-Nazify the population….whatever that means.
Putin seems to have lost his marbles. He has gone from a shrewd strategy of minor incursions and withdrawals. Probing the western democracies for weaknesses and trying to divide any opposition. He has now taken a huge gamble with this invasion whether he has a plan for the future of the country after all the fighting is quite unclear.
Realistic? I’d say the best case at this point would be that Ukraine gives up Crimea and all of the breakaway regions to Russia, in exchange for a halt in hostilities and their military standing down and moving back to pre-war positions with a timetable for them to withdraw back to their bases in Russia. I think that’s the best case, realistically.
I agree, but Putin is not doing this to gain territory, he wants Ukraine, the primary country on his SW border, to never be in NATO. So, in addition to Ukraine giving up the break-away regions and Crimea, they also agree to never joining NATO?
With Russian military might, he has the Ukraine government by the short-and-curlys - if he decapitates that government and installs a puppet, then I suppose there is no negotiating at that point - he will get everything he wants. I guess that’s how bullies work.
Well, the OP wanted the best case from the West or Ukraine’s perspective. Certainly, I think this would be a realistic demand by Russia, but if they could demand this and have them do it that probably means they are getting more than the two break away provinces as well.
What is out in eastern Ukraine anyway? Besides a population of Russian speakers and those sympathetic to Russia. From what I can see in news footage the area is mostly agricultural/industrial. I am not sure what those break-away people expect if they are part of Russia as opposed to Ukraine. Lower taxes, free abortions? Sweet communist hand-outs? I know the Crimea has a history of being a Russian beach playground. Of course, all this talk about giving this land or that land to someone never considers what the people living there want, nor what their real issues are.
I think a lot of their heavy industry is in eastern Ukraine. There also might be significant amounts of mineral resources there (iron and such), though this is all from memory. Haven’t tried to look it up.
My WAG based on what the OP seems to be asking, though, is that Ukraine would have to give that up, regardless, in any sort of realistic negotiated settlement at this point, unless things really go badly wrong for Russia on a scale I can’t imagine.
On 14 September 2020, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky approved Ukraine’s new National Security Strategy, "which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO.
No deal is likely at this point but if circumstances forced Putin to become marginally reasonable I think two deals might be worth exploring.
Ukraine pledges not to join Nato and gives substantial autonomy to Crimea and the Donbass. In return Russia withdraws all its troops from Ukraine and stops supporting separatists while the West ends sanctions.
A more ambitious deal, probably not realistic, might go like this:
2. Ukraine agrees to a referendum in Crimea and the Donbass and allows those regions to join Russia if they wish. In return Russia allows Ukraine to join Nato. Both sides give up more but also get more.
Right now Putin clearly won’t deal but if his army gets bogged down,the war becomes unpopular and sanctions really start to hurt powerful people I think he might settle for some version of deal 1. I suspect the key is going to be the hard men in Russia. If they feel this war is not in their interest, they may put pressure on Putin to deal. The key for the West is to massively ratchet the economic pressure on those powerful Russians and also keep communications lines with them open to persuade them to change direction.
So if this thread is to be believed (big if, as just a Twitter rando claiming to have secret intelligence) then we might see Russia coming to terms fairly soon if resistance continues:
