Mubarak is out - now what? || After Mubarak, who is next?

[wmfellows]

@razncain

First of all, nobody has been much of a threat to Egypt due to America’s aid to this country and Israel’s peace treaty with them.

Eh?

What?

Who pray tell would have been a threat to Egypt sans the Americans etc? Really.

Who would be planning an invasion of an 80 million odd strong Egypt?
*
Sudan*? (That would be good for a laugh).
Jordan?
Libya?

Libya couldn’t even beat the bloody Chadians for fuck’s sake, Chad isn’t even a proper country.

Leaving aside the Israel nonsense, which only underlines the whole affaire was not as such for Egyptians.

Also, America will probably continue to supply them with military aid.

I’m skipping this as well as… well so bloody what? Leverage perhaps, but didn’t move Mubarak one iota to democracy.

Yeah, sure, it’s America’s fault. BTW, Britain gives to about a dozen or so non-democratic countries of which the Human Rights Watch (HRW) says are guilty of many serious crimes, despite their pathetic track record.

Yeees? And aside from a silly Tu Quouque what’s the point?

You will not find me, even as a Tory (that’s conservative to you) defending stupid decisions blindly or torturing ugly facts to be prettier. The US and the UK had to make ugly choices in the Cold War. Those choices were necessary then. They are no longer. Period.

I take a very dim view of most foreign aide to any such countries (I am not against aide as such, but working in African it’s quite clear to me the majority is pissed away and merely props up ugly behaviours).

Your rejoinder merely assumed I’d be a blind daft defender of nation positions. I’m not. The focus is on the US simply because the US gave so much bloody “aide”- billions. Honestly no one much cares what the UK did (and particularly not at this Board). That’s not a defence, it is merely an explanation.

You need to see it first in the UK press, eh?

The UK press has rather better international coverage of developing countries than American press, simple as that. Of course UK quality press has a greater market of people who have reason to care about such information, since London is the centre for investing and doing business in the whole sweep of Africa, Middle East and South Asia.

It will be interesting to see how who has the most influence over the military.

There’s no particular question about that. They WERE the past Gov & are the system mate. Jaysus. No reason to speculate about your radical Mooslims bogey man.

[Razncain]

@wmfellows

Eh?

What?

Who pray tell would have been a threat to Egypt sans the Americans etc? Really.

Who would be planning an invasion of an 80 million odd strong Egypt?
*
Sudan*? (That would be good for a laugh).
Jordan?
Libya?

Libya couldn’t even beat the bloody Chadians for fuck’s sake, Chad isn’t even a proper country.

Leaving aside the Israel nonsense, which only underlines the whole affaire was not as such for Egyptians.

What do you find nonsense about Israel? As far as that goes, not too many would have thought that America who is 300 million strong, and has trilions invested in their military would be attacked some ten years ago on their own soil.

For the longest of time the Middle East region has been a hotspot. Before Saddam Hussein had his clock cleaned, he was a threat to just about anybody in that area. I think any country in that area that spends so little on military and doesn’t have important allies would be ripe for invasion. Israel would certainly be. Saudi Arabia would be just for their rich oil fields. Al Queda would love to send this country in turmoil. Iran would certainly love to have more influence. The US gives to Saudi Arabia, as does the UK even though that country doesn’t exactly have a stellar record on human rights, as do plenty of others.

Yeees? And aside from a silly Tu Quouque what’s the point?

You will not find me, even as a Tory (that’s conservative to you) defending stupid decisions blindly or torturing ugly facts to be prettier. The US and the UK had to make ugly choices in the Cold War. Those choices were necessary then. They are no longer. Period.

I take a very dim view of most foreign aide to any such countries (I am not against aide as such, but working in African it’s quite clear to me the majority is pissed away and merely props up ugly behaviours).

Your rejoinder merely assumed I’d be a blind daft defender of nation positions. I’m not. The focus is on the US simply because the US gave so much bloody “aide”- billions. Honestly no one much cares what the UK did (and particularly not at this Board). That’s not a defence, it is merely an explanation.

The point is I find your position disingenuous by concentrating on the US giving billions to Egypt, when there are many reasons of why our country as well as others still gives to such countries that are not democratic. And actually, to put things into perspective, what the UK does is just an important. I know you don’t want to talk about this, because you want the US to be the boogey man, and not see that the UK gives just as many billions to oppressive governments that don’t have a democracy and are far down on the list on how they these countries treat their own people.

In 2007 Britain overtook the US as the world’s largest global exporter of arms, and this includes tens of bloody billions of military aid that Britain gave to Saudi Arabia, a country under Sharia law, the same as Iran. I just find it amusing that you admonish the US for exporting to non-democratic country like Egypt when your country is knee deep in giving every bit as many bloody billions in aide to countries who have pathetic track records in human rights.

But for the most part, I can see the big picture, and although not always clear to me, I can generally realize why both the US and UK need to give to such countries. I just don’t see this aide as the reasons of why their countries are not democratic. I think their culture, radical forms of Islam, and other factors play far more an important role in keeping them non-democratic.

There’s no particular question about that. They WERE the past Gov & are the system mate. Jaysus. No reason to speculate about your radical Mooslims bogey man.

There is no need to speculate about what radical Muslims have done and are capable of doing. They have a proven track record of what they are capable of doing.

[wmfellows]

@razncain

As far as that goes, not too many would have thought that America who is 300 million strong, and has trilions invested in their military would be attacked some ten years ago on their own soil.

Oh stop the bloody whining on about 11 Sep, you had a terror attack, so has UK constantly - from people you lot harboured. Give it a bloody rest.

I suppose it made a distraction from your ridiculous argument Egypt was threatened by something other than Israel.

Before Saddam Hussein had his clock cleaned, he was a threat to just about anybody in that area.

No he wasn’t. He couldn’t even properly invide little Kuwait, his next door neighbour, and despite American propaganda about WMD, didn’t have anything projectable. Egypt had nothing to fear from Iraq.

Bizarre fantasies.

The point is I find your position disingenuous by concentrating on the US giving billions to Egypt,

1: Billions are… Billions mate, that’s a lot of fucking money.
2: you were the person who dodged all responsibility attached.

And actually, to put things into perspective, what the UK does is just an important.

In what way? UK hasn’t the resources to be just as important in Egypt.

Bahrain, now there would be a case. Egypt, no.

I know you don’t want to talk about this, because you want the US to be the boogey man,

Talk about UK? I’m perfectly happy to, in an informed conversation, in fact I drew attention in another thread to UK and Bahrain military coop.

and not see that the UK gives just as many billions to oppressive governments that don’t have a democracy and are far down on the list on how they these countries treat their own people.

Actually the UK doesn’t give " just as many billions" because the UK hasn’t the money budgeted, so stop pulling factiods out of your ass.

In 2007 Britain overtook the US as the world’s largest global exporter of arms, and this includes tens of bloody billions of military aid that Britain gave to Saudi Arabia, a country under Sharia law, the same as Iran.

Stop inventing things. The UK does not give billions to Saudi Arabia,the UK doesn’t even have an own primary military budget large enough. The US and Russia are the top arms exporters and remain so. One can go to this link from SIPRI to see just what a utter fabrication your claim is. UK is behind even France.

But that’s an entirely different subject, sales and aide.

I just find it amusing that you admonish the US for exporting to non-democratic country like Egypt when your country is knee deep in giving every bit as many bloody billions in aide to countries who have pathetic track records in human rights.

I was admonishing you for your ridiculous posture that it is some kind of " radicalism " for Egyptians to blame the USA. Not the USA for having provided the materials as such - your specific position in all its grotesque hypocrisy and ignorance.

(but again you’re simply inventing the claim re UK aide, sadly UK aide budget - like the UK military budget - is a rounding error compared to the US, although probably larger in per capita terms)

I just don’t see this aide as the reasons of why their countries are not democratic. I think their culture, radical forms of Islam, and other factors play far more an important role in keeping them non-democratic.

But of course it’s the dirty wogs fault, couldn’t possibly be the billions given to prop up the regime.

There is no need to speculate about what radical Muslims have done and are capable of doing. They have a proven track record of what they are capable of doing.

In short, hand waving.

[Razncain]

@wmfellows

Oh stop the bloody whining on about 11 Sep, you had a terror attack, so has UK constantly - from people you lot harboured. Give it a bloody rest.

I suppose it made a distraction from your ridiculous argument Egypt was threatened by something other than Israel.

I’ve only brought 9/11 up once, hardly whining, you drama queen. It was brought up to show you 300 million people strong and trillions of dollars in defense doesn’t prevent attacks on our own soil. And Egypt can be threatened by many things, it isn’t any more immune than any other country from possibly threats, especially against terrorism from within Egypt.

I was admonishing you for your ridiculous posture that it is some kind of " radicalism " for Egyptians to blame the USA. Not the USA for having provided the materials as such - your specific position in all its grotesque hypocrisy and ignorance.

Well, in layman terms, more disingenuous crap from you! Tell me, if any of these non-democratic countries that Britain exports arms to have an uprising, will you somehow blame America for it oppressing its people here too? As I’ve stated, I can see where our countries generally need to support these countries militarily. You can’t seem to fathom or even acknowledge Britain being a major arms exporter, and that it is often right behind or ahead of America in dealing with arms exports to many of these countries.

No he wasn’t. He couldn’t even properly invide little Kuwait, his next door neighbour, and despite American propaganda about WMD, didn’t have anything projectable. Egypt had nothing to fear from Iraq.

More horseshit. He successfully invaded Kuwait. It took him about two days to completely overtake the country IIRC. He had a war with Iran before that, although niether country came out well there. How in hell do you think he got out of Kuwait, others asking him to politely leave?! How old are you? The first American led coalition against Iraq, wasn’t going to war because of WMD’s. It was about getting him out of Kuwait. The only thing that got him out was American and allies forcing him out militarily. And your memory is being selective again. Tony Blair and the Brits bought in to the WMD’s as well with the second war, which did rely on faulty intelligence. Another Iraqi also recently admitting to lying to America because he wanted them to invade Iraq and get rid of Hussein. But again, Britain was right in there with us. Blair was still on board. When Blair was asked about the WMD’s, he guaranteed they would find them. Hussein also wanted America to think it had WMD’s thinking it would prevent America and allies invading his country.

Stop inventing things. The UK does not give billions to Saudi Arabia,the UK doesn’t even have an own primary military budget large enough. The US and Russia are the top arms exporters and remain so. One can go to this link from SIPRI to see just what a utter fabrication your claim is. UK is behind even France.

But that’s an entirely different subject, sales and aide.

Well, technically, it didn’t give, it sold. Does that change things one iota? Your link to that page didn’t provide info on top arms exporters when I tried to open it up. Unless it was buried elsewhere of which I’m not going to dig for it. The UK Sunday Times said Britain became the world’s biggest arms exporter for the year 2007. If stretched out for a period of five years before that time, America had been the biggest exporter of arms with 63 billion, followed by Britain with 53 billion, and Russia with 33 billion. It could be that America is leading again, and possibly Russia maybe ahead of Britain again too, but I’m guessing the difference would probably be small. A google on: +britain +arms +exporter substantiates the UK Sunday Times.

1: Billions are… Billions mate, that’s a lot of fucking money.
2: you were the person who dodged all responsibility attached.

See above.

[Nava]

@FoieGrasIsEvil

Has there ever been a dictator throughout history that actually demonstrated an ounce of care for “his children”?

Dictatorships tend to get a lot of infrastructure built; infrastructure which later makes democracy a lot easier because the people are better fed than before the irrigation systems were put in, in better health than before the hospitals were built, and more able to come and go as they want than before the roads were improved.

It’s not the best form of government but, so long as it manages to avoid overstaying it’s eat-by date, it can be good.

[E-Sabbath]

The interim government in Egypt has been leaked.

The New interim cabinet

Ahmed Shafik as prime minister.

Dr. Yehia El-Gamal as the deputy of the prime minister for the national dialogue. “I think Dr. El-Gamal who was a minister during the Nasserite era is the oldest minister in Egypt now. He was from the founders of the democratic front party”

Mounir Fakhri Abdel Nour as the minister of tourism. ‘The first name to be leaked since afternoon, the first official member of opposition to be chosen in interim cabinet.
He is very active member of Al Wafd party. The famous Christian politician comes from long time Wafd family’

Dr. Gouda Abdel Khalek as minister of social security “ The famous leftist professor of economics has been long time critics of Mubarak’s economic policies. He is a member of the unionist leftist party in Egypt and has been from the strongest candidates to head it after Rafaat Al Said.”

Mohamed Abdel Manam El-Sawy as minister of culture “ The founder of the famous El-Sawy culture wheel, his name was the along the minister of culture’s candidates
list since the time of Hosni Mubarak. Ironically his father was the minister of information and culture in 1977. There is a split in opinion about him.”

Dr. Georgette Kelliny as minister of the newly founded Egyptian expats ministry

Ahmed Abdel Fatah as minister of oil “he headed previously the oil exploration authority and it is said that he did not go along with Sameh Fahmi”

Dr. Maged Othman as ministers of telecommunications “ he headed the IDSC”

Dr. Hany Sarie El-Din as minister of commerce and investment “The chairman of the MIL and used to be the head of Egypt capital market authority. Here is his bio from
his official website. I am not comfortable to anyone who headed any financial authority during the Mubarak era.”

Dr. Ahmed Gamal Al Din Moussa as the minister of education. “He already served as minister of education from 13/7/ 2004 to 30/12/2005. Here is his official website.
He was accused of being close to the Muslim brotherhood ”

Dr. Amr Salama as the minister of scientific search. “He served as the minister of high education during the Mubarak era in 2004 and his father was a minister too during
the 1960s”

P.S There is a strong word in the street that Egyptians will return back to Al Tahrir square next Tuesday to down Ahmed Shafik.

Article’s worth reading, by the way. There’s no longer a Ministry of Information… but there’s a lot of bad with the good.

[BrainGlutton]

Legal experts unveil proposed changes to Egypt’s constitution. Highlights: loosening qualifications for presidential candidates; imposing 2-term limit for presidents; restoring judicial supervision of elections; states of emergency limited to 7 days without approval of parliament, to 6 months without referendum; civilians no longer subject to trial in military courts.

[Agnostic_Pagan]

Good news in Egypt, I hope. The army has appointed the former transportation minister as PM. He resigned in 2005 protesting mis-management under Mubarak’s regime as has been working as a professor at Cairo University, and has support from many of the protesters.

Hopefully the government will lift the state of emergency soon. And the protesters there are still continuing their Friday vigils to keep the pressure on.

So far so good though.

[BrainGlutton]

Egyptians vote on constitutional amendments.

Observers reported an unprecedented turnout across the country, as thousands came out on Saturday to vote “yes” or “no” on a package of controversial constitutional amendments that may set the stage for parliamentary elections within months. The results are scheduled to be released on Sunday.

The country’s most established political forces - Mubarak’s National Democratic Party and the Muslim Brotherhood - are both pushing for approval, while most of the opposition parties and the youth movement want the amendments defeated.

But even those who feared the amendments would pass, paving the way for a fast election likely dominated by the NDP and the Brotherhood, seemed happy to cast a vote that, for the first time, they believed would actually be counted.

“Happy, ecstatic, delirious, laughing, crying,” Karim Beshara, who had pledged to vote against the amendments, wrote on Twitter. “This is definitely the country I was fighting for and it is totally worth it.”

In Cairo, voters chanting “Those times are past us!” reportedly ejected Abdel Azim Wazeer, a local governor, from a polling station after he attempted to cut in line.

[BrainGlutton]

Constitutional changes approved; parliamentary election to be held in June.

One of the provisions, the revised article 189, requires the new parliament to appoint a constitutional assembly within six months of taking office. That group will be responsible for drafting an entirely new constitution, which - if approved in a separate referendum - would take effect next year.

Egypt’s existing constitution, though amended, remains suspended: It does not allow for military rule, so the junta suspended it shortly after taking power.

So. Now it gets (in new and different ways) interesting. Now we find out what the Egyptian people are made of, politically – that is, what they actually want, instead of Mubarak.

[BrainGlutton]

More protests in Egypt.

Thousands of protesters have returned to downtown Cairo’s Tahrir Square for what they called a “second revolution”, calling for Egypt’s military rulers to speed up the pace of democratic reforms in a country that is still charting its political future.

Protesters streamed into Tahrir Square - the symbolic heart of protests that toppled Hosni Mubarak on February 11 - carrying banners reading “Egyptian revolution is not over”.

Youth groups that had helped to launch the uprising against Mubarak have dubbed Friday “the second day of anger”.

In a Facebook call, the Coalition of the Revolution Youth, which consists of several movements behind the Egyptian uprising, urged protesters to rally for “an end to political corruption.”

A large banner hung over the flag-waving crowd, demanding a new constitution “now and not later”.

But Muslim Brotherhood, the country’s best organised opposition movement, said on Thursday it was “very concerned” by Friday’s protest.

The group, that decided not to participate in the demonstrations, said the revolution had achieved many of its goals, including not only the ouster of Mubarak, but also his referral to trial along with his sons and associates.

The military has also announced its intention to stay out of it.

[Farmer_Jane]

They’re still calling the shots right now.

[BrainGlutton]

I expect the protesters don’t seriously expect to win on early elections or immediate rewriting of the constitution, they’re just trying to keep a certain level of revolutionary enthusiasm going continuously until the elections, whenever they will be. Which is not a bad idea in terms of political strategy. The most important problem of Egypt’s first freely-elected government – after putting down corruption in general – is going to be how to take all political and economic power away from the military. That will require one hell of a mandate.

[Farmer_Jane]

@BrainGlutton

I expect the protesters don’t seriously expect to win on early elections or immediate rewriting of the constitution, they’re just trying to keep a certain level of revolutionary enthusiasm going continuously until the elections, whenever they will be. Which is not a bad idea in terms of political strategy. The most important problem of Egypt’s first freely-elected government – after putting down corruption in general – is going to be how to take all political and economic power away from the military. That will require one hell of a mandate.

Egypt’s military has been separate from government for so long that I don’t know how that would happen. There are times when I think the military should have a degree of autonomy (“let the professionals fight the wars”) but in Egypt…I mean, you’re trying to take power away from the guys with guns.

[Farmer_Jane]

Did someone just call an English person a Drama Queen? Haha.

1. Egypt’s military will not cede control- nor should it, really, because as Brian pointed out, it is calling the shots un international affairs. They are not going to reneg on treaties with the US and Israel. The economic relationships they have with both are far too great.

Marley, the aid we give to Egypt does mean something, but it is not an end all be all, especially if the Muslim Brotherhood comes to power. Note how Obama casually hinted at 2B if they get their shit together. And Obama was quiet until it was a given that Mubarak would step down. Mubarak may be a jerk, but Kissinger taught us all a lesson in realpolitik.

Anyway, Egypt has an unelected and unrepresentative government writing a Constitution. That’s not always horrible, but I still don’t see real democracy coming to Egypt. And if it does, it could spell trouble. Democracy does not always mean good leaders.

[BrainGlutton]

@CitizenPained

Did someone just call an English person a Drama Queen? Haha.

No, I don’t think anyone did. Anyway, aren’t you Israeli?

@CitizenPained

1. Egypt’s military will not cede control- nor should it, really, because as Brian pointed out, it is calling the shots un international affairs. They are not going to reneg on treaties with the US and Israel. The economic relationships they have with both are far too great.

No, of course Egypt won’t renege on those treaties. But, Egypt is trying to become a modern democracy. One feature of every such – even Russia, I’m fairly sure – is that the military establishment is entirely subordinate to the civil government and is in no way an independent political force. Another feature (but not of Russia) is that public corruption is more the exception than the rule, and Egypt’s military establishment – any military establishment that operates and profits from its own businesses – is corrupt to the core.

[Farmer_Jane]

I’m just saying that they wont’ let it happen.

Also, if they did, then there’s a possibility that Egypt’s alliances will be shifted. The Powers that Be won’t allow it to happen…that includes the U.S. and NATO.

Anyway - tried to send you a PM.

[Farmer_Jane]

Egyptian crowd sets Cairo police station ablaze

[BrainGlutton]

Elections set for November.

Egypt’s parliamentary elections, a crucial step in transitioning to civilian rule, will be held in November, according to Egyptian state media reports.

In a meeting with reporters in Cairo on Saturday, Abdul Moaez Ahmed Ibrahim, the chief of the Higher Election Commission, said that the elections of both houses of the parliament will be held at the same time and fully supervised by judges.

“Whether Egyptian expatriates will be able to vote or not needs a political decision,” Ibrahim said.

No exact date for the voting has been announced.

The election commission was created on July 19 at a meeting of the supreme council of the armed forces, where it was also announced that no international observers would be allowed to monitor the vote.

Major General Mamdouh Shaheen, who presented the new election law to reporters, said barring foreign monitors was a necessary step to protect Egypt’s sovereignty.

He said the generals “reject anything that affects our sovereignty” and that Egyptian election monitors will observe the process instead.

The decision has been criticised by activists, who say it raises questions about the transparency of the first elections after the toppling of former President Hosni Mubarak in February.

:dubious: Ya really think that’s gonna satisfy, Mamdouh?

[BrainGlutton]

Islamists attack police station at Arish in the Sinai. The Muslim Brotherhood denies involvement.