[QUOTE=RickJay]
I realize I’m providing a serious post in a ridiculous thread, but the history of economic integration and national identity suggests you’re a hundred percent wrong.
It’s long been claimed that economic integration will break down nationalism, but so far as I can tell, it’s never happened, or at least there are a heck of a lot of examples that show the opposite. After all, Quebec and the rest of Canada are far more economically integrated than almost any two nation-states you can think of and yet Quebec nationalism has not subsided with time. Free trade between the US and Canada has been in place for awhile now and Canadian nationalism is probably more strident and visible now than at any other time in the country’s history. Nationalism has long been a force in Europe even when economies became integrated - indeed, it was very common wisdom prior to 1914 that economci integration made general war impossible. Scotland is closely economically integrated within the UK and, by extension, the EU, and yet Scots might actually vote for separation - despite there being, to any external observer, absolutely no reason to do so beyond just “we wanna be separate.” Czechoslovakia broke up for more or less the same reason.
Nationalism is a remarkably powerful (and in my opinion, usually negative) force, and experience suggests economic integration doesn’t stop it at all.
[/QUOTE]
Nationalism is only 500 years old. Your notion of timeline seems to be based largely within your own lifetime. We are seeing the breakdown of nationalism right now with a rise in the power of non-state actors such as multi-national corporations, criminal cartels and terrorist organizations.
I don’t think general war is impossible at all. My point is that free trade will make the nationalism functionally irrelevant. American states even have their own nationalist pride. Texas, California, and New York (City anyway) all have a bit of their own nationalist undercurrent. Nationalism is becoming more of a cultural phenomena than an economic one. Sure people will still have their ‘whereever I am from’ nationalism, but they will be doing business with people everywhere, as we already do.
If you haven’t noticed the evolution of warfare is becoming something analogous to highly funded gang wars, that transcend geographical turf. It’s about blowing up your enemy’s car more than it is about dominating geographical territory in the name of your nation-state. America went into Iraq and completely dominated it from a force projection standpoint, but our overall strategic aims were to create a pro-American sovereign nation that just so happened to have strong economic ties to the country that built it’s infrastructure. If the Iraq adventure is successful, the ability to invest in Iraq safely will be defended by the Iraqi government. That’s an ideological win for America, without having to dominate Iraq. The point is for the world to be safe for business. The safer it is to do business with Mexico, the more people will go across to Mexico. They are already planning to build massive NAFTA highways, and trade across the border has increased significantly. With increased communications and transportation infrastructure, more people will go back and forth as they go about their business. The whole notion of ‘guest worker’ amnesty for Mexican citizens is so that we can encourage the integration of our economies without culturally embracing Mexican citizens. It’s all incremental.
If you haven’t seen it happen within a single century then I think you haven’t been looking hard enough, and perhaps your timeline is too short. Look at how solid Europe is after World War II, the Marshall Plan and the EC. People are doing business with Russia and China like never before. The biggest threats to world security are all these emerging third world countries, mostly Islamic like Iran or Iraq. Global interconnection of business is at an all-time high, and the focus of 1st world foreign policy is to make countries friendly to investment.