figured i would just cut that mother fucker off at the knees. dontchaknow.
If you’re in danger of being mislynched, you MUST come clean about this before you die. The entire village is going to merrily mislynch me if you die as a seer and leave this fake breadcrumb behind. The odds you’re doing this as the actual seer is very small, but you don’t seem to really grasp the idea of fakepeeking so you may have left a fake peek as the real seer (if you’re the real seer, you’re supposed to leave behind your REAL peek).
If you’re the real seer, absolutely do not admit to fakepeeking me, you’ll just out yourself that way. You probably shouldn’t even do it if you aren’t the seer.
Frankly, I think this whole line of reasoning is WIFOM. With my estimate of 6-9 scum Yesterday, there’s a pretty darn good probability that there’s both Dopers and other-boarders on the scum team. Figuring out who made the suggestion doesn’t really help us at all. Figure we can even say with certainty that it was a Doper who made the suggestion, that doesn’t help us at all because it’s fully expected, well above chance, that there’s a Doper on the scum team, so it gives us no more information than simply guessing at random. So, IMO, trying to figure out whether it was an other-boarder or doper is fruitless.
What we can glean, though, is that both dopers and other-boarders as scum had potential reasons to want him dead so, assuming that the scum kill wasn’t blocked, which was unlikely, then Guiri was probably more likely to be their team kill than Silnam. And from that, we can glean that Silnam’s death is likely not a scum team kill, and thus could be another vig, or an sk, or a hitman. I’m not sure how useful that info is, but it is what it is.
This is Silman’s post’s from yesterday (there’s one where he edits a link and asks the mod if that’s okay, I left that one out because it has no relevance.)
The underlining is mine. He clears krayz (a now confirmed villager) and clears Suburban Plankton “for a secret reason.” Wolves could have very well thought that Silman was the seer. Silman is very likely to have been the nightkill.
And for the above reasons, Suburban Plankton is my clearest villager for the time being.
Nevermind, there’s no way idle can be the seer. He targeted someone else last night and got peek results about a 3rd player outside of me. Shouldn’t be bad to explain this to the village because the wolves already know my role anyways so they know he can’t be the seer.
Interesting quote from Silman you have there. But if you’re correct, then that means that there’s good scum motivation for killing both non-scum targets last Night. I think that raises the probability that scum have a Hitman and, if they do, they likely know who he is as well. Ugh…
This is a good catch but I don’t suspect that there would be a wolf role that allows him/her to send messages freely to other players. The wolf doesn’t even know his own role so why would he know he can send messages?
The more likely scenario is that there is masons in this game, and that the journalist (silman) could see their messages if he targeted one of the masons.
Well given that the consensus if that guiri was a good player, anyone (townie or scum) could have targeted guiri last night. Most powers are going to be pro-townie (doctor, cop, tracker, etc) when targeting a random player (unknown player is ~60-70% to be a villager). I don’t think we can assume guiri was purposely killed by the scum, rather it is possible that a townie targeting guiri and accidentally killed him, because the townie obviously didn’t know what their power was. Just by the math, there’s more villagers to target strong players with powers that are more likely than not to not kill the target, so do not just assume guiri was targeted by scum.
This is of course discounting that guiri himself was the village vig. I would suspect there would be more than one townie vigilante in this format though.
The wolves already know your role?
Meh, role as in my affiliation, not role as in my power.
Ah, ok, over here we pretty much just call that alignment. Athough, Gad doesn’t eliminate the possibility of neutrals so really the best the wolves could say is that you’re nonscum.
Yeah I’ll use role/affiliation interchangeably referring to the latter and role/power also referring to the later. Should be fairly obvious what I mean depending on the context of the post but I’ll try to be clearer given this particular format since no one really knows their powers yet.
Agreed that non-wolf could be villager/neutral, but idle is accidentally clearing himself as a possible seer when he claims me as wolf, that’s why if you’re really trying to leave fakepeeks for the village then you should usually claim someone as a villager because you’re more likely to be correct.
The flip side to fakepeeking a wolf though, is that the few times you are right you’re more likely to be nightkilled. When that happens then you can turbo lynch the person who was claimed wolf.
I already said that I got a Night action yields no results message, so no, I don’t think I’m the Seer. I’d think (well, hope) I’d have gotten results if I were it.
I still don’t get this. You’re clearing Sub Plank as villager because Silman said he was. But Silman was just a journalist and there isn’t anything in the journalist read out that suggest he’d know anything about anyone’s role.
And I know where you’re going to go next: The fact that the wolves would try for it anyway, just to be safe, because they’d think he was telling the truth and by killing Silman, it confirms that Sub Plank is probably Town, right?
Only problem with that is, it was already mentioned/explained/discussioned in this post. Post 219 by Episkey (number 4).
And then rebutted in this post by me (Post 237).
So how do you know Silnam didn’t just happen to guess wrong and the scum killed him off just because they know the POGers would clear him? After all, they’ll have been reading the same posts you and I have…it’s certainly something you have to consider.
And, yes, scum would totally do that. If I’ve learned anything in this game, it’s that scum would always do that. That being what you think they wouldn’t do just to throw you off the track.
I’m not really a fan of that though and over here we’ve even floated the idea of having cops not share their results until close to Day end to avoid everyone piling on the wolf and leaving no vote record. One of the top considerations for me when I’m scum is who’s suspicious of whom and how can I use that to make town mislynch.
I’m not calling Sub Plank scum here, by the way, I’m just using it as an example since it’s one that has actually happened.
You’re basically soft-clearing people that were said to be Town by people not the Seer. But for all you know, scum killed them just so you’d do that.
Nobody is being cleared by me until they’re dead or upon another (confirmed) Townies death, possiby (to quote someone else earlier—SisterCoyote, I think?)
I’m not calling Sub Plank scum here, by the way, I’m just using it as an example since it’s one that has actually happened.
You’re basically soft-clearing people that were said to be Town by people not the Seer. But for all you know, scum killed them just so you’d do that.
Nobody is being cleared by me until they’re dead or upon another (confirmed) Townies death, possiby (to quote someone else earlier—SisterCoyote, I think?)
Sorry for the double post.
There was something I missed when originally applying to the below post, Idle:
re: the underlined part.
Rather there being a randomizer like I theorized, there is almost definitely a redirecter.
From silman’s writeup:
There’s redirector’s out there which is the reason you (as you say) got the results for dancecat. I’ve never played in a game with a redirector so I’m not really sure how that role should work. I think that the results got redirected away from the intended recipient only, so whoever originally targeted dancecat should be a seer.
Idle, did you only get an affiliation peek, or both affiliation and power? If you got affiliation only, then we can assume that the seer is a villager (the wolves wouldn’t really need an affiliation only seer). If you got an affiliation + power result, then that could be a wolf seer power.
It was just alignment. It said Villager (and it was in green bold font).