Garnett is a forward and I think belongs in the Kobe, Lebron, so good they came out of high school to rule the world group. Embiid isn’t that.
Gasol went 48th. If you can get Embiid at 48, you should.
O’Neal also came out of high-school, was already one of the top players in the country, and was drafted 17th. That’s probably not a bad spot to take a runner at Embiid.
Noah and Cousins were good players in college, were drafted 5 and 10, and remain good in the pros. Neither of them made a huge leap. And while both of them are the best guy on their team right now, neither team is very good in that state. If people are projecting that Embiid’s upside is DeMarcus Cousins, I might buy that.
Yao Ming played most of his career with McGrady, so I’m not sure him a franchise player. He had tons of injury problems, and those Houston teams are considered chronic underachievers. If people are projecting Embiid as a chronically injured second best guy on a good team that never quite puts it together, I could buy that too.
When I hear people say an eleven point a game guy is a clear number one pick in a strong draft and could be a two-way franchise player like Olajuwon, I find that wildly optimistic. When you add multiple serious injuries on an eighteen year old body that just started playing basketball, I wouldn’t touch him. Somebody will, obviously, and whoever that is might strike gold, but there are a lot of other guys in this draft I’d rather bet on.
I guess my point was that I never thought he looked like an obvious #1 pick except that the press kept saying he was. I think the NBA draft bets on size and athleticism over guys that are good at playing basketball, and that wouldn’t be my approach.
I have nothing against Embiid. He seems like a good guy who just lost a shitload of money on some bad luck injuries, and I hope he proves me wrong.