It would have been a net benefit; most of the things people were worried about happening due to an assassination happened/will happen anyway. There’s no point in worrying about provoking the right or giving them excuses, as they always act as if they had maximum provocation and complete license to do as they please anyway.
And whomever replaced him wouldn’t have had the same cult leader hold on MAGA he does, and would have probably been much more cautious.
The two people who were shot and will face lifelong health issues, and the family of the man who was murdered in front of them, might disagree that “we all dodged a bullet.”
Trump voters are mostly cowards who don’t expect any resistance. After a few Trump supporters were gunned down while trying to victimize liberals, the rest would mostly back down. Its like on Jan 6th when Trump supporters were shocked when Ashley Babbitt was shot. They weren’t expecting any resistance.
So I don’t think a bunch of 50 year old white men with rifles and handguns were going to terrorize the nation while everyone else cowers in fear. After a few of them got shot while trying to murder people, the rest would’ve backed down.
Vance would be a much more sane president. I don’t think Vance would be pushing for the annexation of Greenland, or pushing for ICE as heavily. Deep down inside Vance knows Trump is unstable (look at Vance’s statements about Trump in 2016) but like Ted Cruz, he is a craven careerist who jumped on the Trump train once they knew it was their only chance at being relevant.
Had the bullet moved an inch or two, I think Vance wouldn’t be the nominee. I think someone like Nikki Haley would have taken it. I can’t articulate quite why, I just think she would have been and Vance would have gotten nowhere without Trump pulling him every inch of the way.