Suppose the shooter had not missed and Trump could no longer run.
There is a host of possible outcomes, including the removal of the cult leader, his possible martyrdom, vengeful violence on the part of MAGATs and so on.
In your opinions, how would this have ultimately played out? Would there be a net gain or a net loss (depending on your POV)?
I can’t see how that wouldn’t have been a massive loss, whether you like Trump or not. Can you imagine how dangerous things would have gotten?
Net loss, by a lot, due to rampant political violence, and distrust of the verifiability of elections. It reminds me too much of the later sequels to Advise and Consent, such as Come Nineveh, Come Tyre. Also, Biden would probably not have withdrawn and we would end up with a very old and feeble-looking president, which would just make matters worse. The Democrats would probably win the presidency (assuming no coup or revolt) but Republicans could well sweep the House and Senate, possibly even with a veto-proof majority. I’m not generally a doom-sayer, but I would be seriously considering packing up and leaving, something I have never said before.
I suspect there are a number of Trump haters who (possibly secretly) wish the assassination had succeeded. I think such a wish is extremely foolish.
If Trump does suddenly and violently and “tragically” at someone else’s hands, his sins will evaporate in the national mourning, however sincere or insincere it might be. He cannot die this way. He must crumble into sweaty decrepitude by the influence of his own gluttony and sloth, and he must die drooling and weak.
Not that I have strong feelings about this or anything.
The adversarial hatefulness and “win at all costs” mentality would hardly dissipate at that point. Whoever ended up in power would probably acquiring it and maintaining it in more of a military than a political sense.
Yeah this. The fawning and normalisation of his fascism that occured when he got a slight nick on the ear were bad enough. If he’d been killed than would have been multiplied a thousand fold in every media outlet.
Which ever Trump-like scumbag wannabe dictator was chosen to replace him would have walked to victory and would have set about dismantling democracy and punishing those who had persecuted the great leader (god rest his soul). We all dodged a bullet that day.
The GOP would have heaved a quiet sigh of relief. Haley would be the likely nominee. The Democrats would still try to replace Biden with Harris.
As said, the transition would not be peaceful.
At minimum he becomes a martyr, propelling the Republican candidate to victory.
But MAGA could easily see it as the start of the Civil War they’d been prepped to expect. Since Trump didn’t get hurt IRL, they can tell each other “God protected him,” so they don’t get worried. But if he dies? Now they need to get us before we get them.
I’ve actually myself went partially along with the “God saved Trump” narrative. I’ve simply pointed out that it doesn’t mean God supports him. Because it could mean he saved our country from what I just said above. I pointed out good Christians who were killed, as well as bad men who the bullets missed.
Trump actually being assassinated would have definitely made everything worse. Even the least worst option is bad.
Speculatin’ along a different track…
Trump is the movement. Without him, there is no leader, no one with equal MAGA-gravitas to perpetuate lie after lie on the national stage and no one with official authority in the movement to declare heretics. With no consensus replacement for Trump, the likely result would be a MAGAT power struggle, at least some of which would play out in public. Republicans fighting among themselves would weaken them as a political force. Perhaps someone would come out of it as a leader, but how united the party – let alone the public - would be around that person is an open question.
With the assassin’s background and still-mysterious motives in play, there could only be unfounded speculation in the immediate aftermath of the assassination as to who/what was responsible…just as is happening now (sans violence). While it’s certainly enough to fuel heaps o’ logic-deprived CTs, it would not be enough to justify in the public mind dumbfucks who engaged in violent acts. They would ultimately be subdued and dealt with by law enforcement, same as the Jan. 6 rioters, according to the severity of their crimes.
Not sure about Biden (or, for that matter, the impact on Congressional races). The debate and pressure on Joe to withdraw began before the assassination. Trump’s death and endless media exploitation of it would push the Biden angle out of the main headlines - presumably reducing/delaying pressure on him to exit the race – but it wouldn’t necessarily end talk of it.
I will stop here as too much of what might happen next depends on who Republicans named to head their ticket and how messy the process was.
As long as the assassin retained “lone nut” status in the public mind, I would view Trump being removed from the national scene in this manner as a net plus for the country, world and planet.
cult?..wow…how about your evil incarnate statement. What about that?
I’ve said in another thread that I don’t think this is actually true. Trump is not the plucky teenage girl from some young adult fiction story leading a movement that is bigger than herself. MAGA is a cult of personality around Trump and is critically dependent on its leader.
Certainly a new Republican candidate would try to take the reigns of MAGA, but they would have the same draw as non-Trump Republicans do these days.
See, I don’t think the candidate has to actually do anything. It’s a pretty easy sell that Trump would want them to get out there and vote Republican. And I don’t think the Dems hold on the never Trump Republicans.
If you won’t vote for the guy who died for our country, then you’re not American.
Who here said “evil” or “incarnate?”
I searched and the only use of those words are by you.
Am I missing something?
In my humble opinion, the entire Republican Party is evil incarnate and has been every minute of my lifetime, which starts in the McCarthy Era. I could give a history lesson, but that would require several college semesters to encompass all the bad.
The RParty is now in total disarray as it tries to refigure itself as a Trump cult. One might have thought that this had already taken place, but the bitter fights for Speaker earlier this year shows that most of the RParty hadn’t given up wanting to be normal. Trump make it clear he was in charge, romped through the primaries, and picked the candidate whose lips were most firmly pressed to his ass as his VP choice.
Such a personality cult never outlives the authoritarian in charge. If Trump were to die - by a heart attack as much as an assassination - the party would be in shambles, looking for leadership and probably not finding it.
If the cause were indeed assassination, the short-term damage would be a cost. But the long-term damage would be a benefit. How large either one would be is impossible to calculate.
I think people are overestimating how much it would have helped the GOP. People who hated Trump aren’t going to vote Republican just because he died. And although I think the risk of widespread political violence is already frighteningly high, and a successful assassination would certainly increase it, I don’t think it moves us from “basically OK” to “Mad Max” in one fell swoop.
In the short run, I think the GOP tears itself apart with infighting and the Democrats become huge favorites in the Presidential race, especially if they don’t stick with Biden. In the long run, maybe some other foul beast becomes the leader of the MAGA movement, but I think there’s a reasonable chance that the far right never gets this close to power again. If he got assassinated now, I think they’d be in somewhat better shape, since Vance would be anointed as the successor and might be able to rally the party around him (if he turns out to be less of a goober than he seems, that is).
A successful assassination would have been a disaster for the Dems. The sympathy vote for the Trumpian successor would have meant certain defeat for the Dems. But the worst part is that it would have been open season on Democratic polititians. It already is to some extent. Cf. the attack on Pelosi’s husband and the planned at on Whitmer, but this would have been much worse.
Maybe…
I am not sure the republicans could have come together and get behind one person to replace him. I think that might tear them apart.
That’s the thing about cults of personality. There is rarely an heir to go to once the top dog is gone. Indeed, the top dog never wants an heir apparent.