I’m increasingly beginning to think that Cruz is going to be the nominee. An Establishment Lane candidate can only win if that field is thinned out considerably, and so far, that just isn’t happening. And I don’t think Trump can get an outright majority, and there’s no way he gets in through a brokered convention (though a brokered convention that goes against the plurality winner will be all kinds of interesting). Cruz, meanwhile, is the closest thing we’ve got to a compromise between the establishment and the outsiders: He is, after all, a sitting Senator, which really should be enough to make him be considered “establishment”.
California is “district winner-take-all”; the winner in each congressional district gets the district’s 3 delegates, and the statewide winner gets the state’s remaining 10 pledged delegates. Five other states do it this way, if I read The Green Papers right; Missouri (which gives all district delegates to the statewide winner if he gets a majority of the statewide vote), Wisconsin, Maryland, Indiana, and West Virginia.
California has the most because it does not reward red states as much as the Democrats reward blue states. Each state gets 10 plus 3 per Congressional district as a base; in addition, states that voted for Romney in 2012 get (60% of their electoral votes plus 4 1/2, rounded up) more delegates, plus there are bonuses (1 each) for each Republican Senator and Governor, having a majority of House members as Republicans, and controlling any house of the state legislature (with another bonus delegate for controlling all of them).
Texas’s maximum “red state bonus” is 34 (38 electoral votes x 60% + 4.5 = 27.3, rounded up to 28, plus six bonus delegates if it had two Republican Senators, a Republican Governor, a majority of its House members Republican, and Republican control of all legislative houses in Austin), but its base is “only” 118 (3 x 36 Congressional districts + 10), so that’s a maximum of 152. On the other hand, California’s base, which is all that it gets, is 3 x 53 districts + 10 = 169.
Our real median household income peaked over 15 years ago in 1999 at $57,543 (we got close around 2007 with $57,357). The median household income in 2014 was $53,657.
The picture for median household wealth is even more bleak. The wealth recovery has been a bit lopsided so almost all the recovery of wealth has been by the top quintile. The rest of the nation lost a lot of money and didn’t get very much of it back.
Except for the small problem nobody does consider him that and the establishment clearly hates him. His part in the government shutdown kinda keeps him out of playing that role, istm.
I cannot say for sure whether or not he has any “rights” to the song. I do know that candidates don’t need any official go-ahead to play a song in an auditorium. I believe it’s only when a song is played in a candidates advert that a deal is needed with whoever has the copyright.
A brokered convention that goes against the plurality winner where that plurality winner is Trump could be especially interesting. Trump’s pledge to support the nominee seems to only hold if Trump feels he was treated fairly. It’s unclear what Trump would consider unfair treatment, but nominating some loser after he gets a plurality of the delegates probably qualifies.
Man, there is such a small chance of a Kasich presidency I don’t know if there is a number that can represent it.
“Official” and real unemployment are two different numbers.
Eh, betting sites actually call it 35-1. Those are poor odds, but certainly not “too small to represent with our numeric system.”
Yes, so we hear from the Republicans all the time. But if official unemployment is 3.1%, it’s hard to imagine there being a huge number of discouraged workers. In any event, that doesn’t explain the highest median income in the nation, or a poverty rate half the national average.
Your projections may prove consistent with reality. I’m not sure what Bernie’s plan is. But I think there’s a possibility of a snowball, and Presidential primaries, since they aren’t attached to other elections or referenda, are for non-low-information voters with strong opinions on the particular race. That will include those to whom Bernie can appeal if he keeps plugging away.
I think it would be a mistake to consider those the real odds. There isn’t much attraction for people to bet against Kasich for the opportunity to tie up $100 for nine months and make less than $3 profit for their trouble; even less if the odds are higher.
There’s a political reason why the government chooses the smaller number. Just like when the government says they are cutting the deficit instead of the debt or cutting spending. The words the government chooses to use are designed to reflect positively on those in power.
I have issued a disclaimer they’re strictly based on current polling and what happens if Bernie cannot move the needle. They also didn’t incorporate his New Hampshire win, which may or may not produce a “bump” in other states.
Primaries affect future primaries that’s partly why they do them the way they do instead of one big national primary day–to give the people a chance to judge candidates over time, to give time for the right candidate (optimistically/theoretically) to rise to the top and etc. But the minority electorate’s support of Sanders in Southern state polls has stubbornly not moved in sync at all with his growth of support nationally, and if that remains the case I don’t see a path to victory.
Nah. I figure if Trump or Cruz will win this year, 2018 will be a pretty good year for the new Democratic-Socialist coalition. 
Among the write-ins, only O’Malley came in ahead of Vermin. None of the R-write-ins got more votes than Vermin.
Looks like the Huckster narrowly defeated Frothy Mix; down the list, Miss Lindsey is saved from last place (amongst the recognizable names) by Piush.
Oddly, both of those fell behind Tim Cook. Who the hell is that? The gay CEO of Apple? Why would his name show up on the R write-in list?
Sanders won all but 5 towns and cities in New Hampshire. Trump won all but 13, Kasich won 12, Cruz won 1.
Yes, but the government has always used the smaller number, so it’s still a perfectly valid basis for comparison.
It’s not a political reason. CNBC and the conservative media is just butt hurt about the fall in unemployment. Quoting U-6 just helps them pander to low information viewers who already know the USA is awful under Obama.
For example, if I tell you the temperature is 32 degrees and then you tell me, “No, the real temperature is 0 degrees. It’s much colder than your number!” You can’t pull a switcheroo by changing the temperature scale to back up your ‘facts’
They’re not actually write-ins per se. It’s pretty easy to get on a primary ballot in NH, and Vermin Supreme was actually on it. I believe those other names that got a few dozen votes were too.
Sorry, no idea who Tim Cook is, in this context.
Strong showing for Vermin Supreme, though. I think the absurdity of the primary cycle this year probably helped him. The Republicans appear to be favoring a racist, orange-colored reality TV host. Why not vote for someone with a boot on his head?