New Hampshire Primary 02/09/16

The one thing you can say is that at least it’s not boring or predictable.

Poor Jim Gilmore. Among the candidates beating him? Vermin Supreme.

That most people have voted against them, and none of them are assured of anything? Of course.

And that is the point of primaries, to try to get to at least a binary, where people vote for A over B or B over A.

With one primary and one caucus in the bag Trump is 1-1. He’s nowhere close to being able to garner the support he needs to reliably think he’ll win enough delegates to get the nomination on the first vote (especially when you take unpledged delegates into account.) His only shot of getting the nomination with a plurality is winning a lot of winner take all states later. Even winning enough of them can be challenging unless he grows his support as the field continues to winnow. He hasn’t reliably grown his overall support as the early winnowing has happened or shown that he does well among second choice respondents in polls.

There is the real possibility of a contested convention unless something changes significantly. If that happens there is the real possibility of a convention that selects someone other than Trump even if he has a plurality of delegates. What THAT would do to the party is the real elephant in the room IMO.

Re the Trump speech: does anyone know if he actually has the rights to “Revolution”? It’s sort of an ironic choice - But when you want money for people with minds that hate/All I can tell is brother you have to wait.

Plus, he will be able to manage his wardrobe much better being closer to home.

What a relief it is that Rubio’s robotic debate gaffe did matter to voters. There was some talk that maybe it was just something that media pundit types were laughing about but that regular voters wouldn’t care about. And honestly, I found that possibility rather disturbing. So I definitely see this as reassuring.

Did any of you all watch Trump’s victory speech? Maybe my eyes are seeing incorrectly or the color in my TV is off, but he looked more orange than Boehner at his orangest.

Not to be a damp towel about Bernie, but I heard that he basically tied with Hillary among registered NH Democrats; the Independent vote is what gave him such a huge victory. If true, isn’t this a massive issue? Future primaries, as well as being less white and Vermont-y, will be closed.

[She’s not leaving yet:

](http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_2016_ELECTION_THE_LATEST?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-02-09-22-01-46)By the way, what the fuck is it with Republicans not respecting intellectual property rights? :confused:

I watched as much as I could stomach, but yeah, very Boehner-hued.

Bernie has an uphill battle ahead of him, no doubt. But there’s nothing like the Big MO, and he’s got it.

Agreed on all counts.

And Rubio looked green! Maybe it was just the light.

65% reporting, Sanders now at 59.5%,

Who the hell is Jim Gilmore? Where’d he come from? Has he been up there on teh Pubbie stage all along? Did he just sneak his name on to the ballot when no one was looking? Is he really Bobby Jindal in a rubber Old Man Gilmore Mask? Is he a Dream in the Hearts of Children, everywhere? Am I, Jim Gilmore, and I just don’t know it yet? Maybe you’re Jim Gilmore. You don’t know. It could happen. Have you checked?

As it should be.

CNN just announced that Christie is cancelling all his South Carolina events and going home to New Jersey to think things over. It sounds like he’s going to be the next one to drop out.

Not surprising. He really doesn’t have a viable way forward and he is smart enough to realize it.

Michelle Obama?

As for the closed primary thing: were I living in New Hampshire, I’d register as an Independent. Were I living in a state with a closed primary, I’d register as a Democrat. I suspect a significant number of folks like me know which kind of state they live in and register accordingly; I don’t think a lot of independents who support Sanders are going to say, “D’oh!” as they realize they can’t vote for him.

Not to say it’s not somewhat of an issue; maybe there are a lot more independently-minded folks in NH than elsewhere. But I don’t think a trick of the ballot is going to keep a lot of people away who’d otherwise vote for Sanders.